From trauma to recovery: dynamics of long-term mental health after the 2021 German floods

Severe flood events significantly impact the mental health of affected people, leading to an increased prevalence of mental disorders such as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, there is a lack of knowledge and understanding of the long-term mental health effects of severe flooding, the recovery process and the influencing factors. We address this knowledge gap using the particularly devastating flood event that occurred in July 2021 in Germany as an example. The event caused an overall damage of €33 billion and resulted in 190 fatalities, over 750 injured, and many others struggling with their experiences. We conducted quantitative online surveys in highly affected regions in Germany 12 to 36 months after the flood event. The surveys used a short clinically validated epidemiological screening scale to detect indications of PTSD. Through statistical modelling, we assessed the changes in PTSD indications over time and identified subgroups of individuals with different PTSD symptoms. We also examined potential influencing variables, focusing on personal (e.g., resilience) and social (e.g., support network, offers of assistance) factors. In the severely impacted district of Ahrweiler in the federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate, the PTSD prevalence shows a reduction over time: 28% of individuals showed indications of PTSD around 12 months post-flooding, 24% 18 months after the flood, and 17% 36 months after the event. The proposed modelling will offer deeper insights into the long-term dynamics of mental health recovery at the individual level. With this research, we aim to tailor the development of targeted interventions to support individuals and communities affected by disasters.