Coupling Remote Sensing data and GIS analysis to delineate Wildland-Urban Interfaces and their possible correlation to wildfires in a densely populated area in Greece

This research examines the complex interactions between natural vegetation and urban infrastructure within the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), focusing on the region of Attica, Greece. Human-built environments and wild vegetation converge in areas where conditions favor the propagation of wildfires. The presence of diverse fuel sources, both natural and artificial, fosters the development of conditions conducive to the rapid spread of wildfires. Consequently, these areas are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards. The Attica region is among the most densely populated in Greece, with a population density of over 3.8 million inhabitants. The region is characterized by extensive and unregulated buildings, which renders it a suitable subject for studying WUI. The study addresses the relationship between the increasing frequency of wildfires and the impact of urban sprawl concerning future fire risk, highlighting the critical need for effective risk management strategies. To achieve its objectives, freely available advanced geospatial data from digital and satellite sources was utilised, such as data on urban structures (UCR-Star building footprints from 2014–2021) and vegetation (Corine Land Cover 2018, forest maps from 2022, and high-resolution vegetation data from the Copernicus Database) to map the WUI areas. Historical fire records (Fire frequency) were derived from Landsat satellite imagery (1983–2023), while topographic maps (1988–1994) were processed to create Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and slope maps, and climatic data modified the Fire Weather Index (FWI) at the 90th percentile for RCP 4.5 projections. The methodology employed a three-stage process to map the WUI, integrating fuel type mapping, dwelling characterisation, and classification of WUI types. The wildfire risk was assessed through a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based model combining hazard (fire history, weather, topography, and fuel types) and susceptibility (land cover and WUI categories) to identify high-risk areas in Attica. The spatial analysis performed the spatial extent of the WUI in Attica, which was estimated to be 26% of the whole region. Furthermore, 37% of the study area was classified as high or very high risk, underscoring the region’s vulnerability. Temporal fire mapping from 1983 to 2023 provided a comprehensive understanding of fire dynamics over four decades, allowing detailed analysis of the relationship between WUI expansion and fire occurrence. Overall, more than 102,000 hectares in Attica have been affected by wildfires, covering over one-third of the region. The findings outline a strong correlation between urban development and wildfire risk, thus offering valuable insights into the factors contributing to fire vulnerability in WUI areas. These findings contribute to the scientific discourse and a solid foundation for developing evidence-based policies to improve fire prevention, response, and resilience in areas where urban and natural landscapes intersect.