Investigating the Urban Thermal Environment of a Climate Change Hotspot through High-Resolution Modelling: Case Study for Nicosia, Cyprus

The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region is a recognized as a climate change hotspot, characterized by rising temperatures, declining precipitation, and increasing extreme weather events. These challenges are particularly pronounced in urban areas, highlighting the need for high-resolution data to capture localized climate impacts and support effective mitigation strategies. This study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, coupled with the Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), to investigate the urban thermal environment of Nicosia, Cyprus, at a 1 km spatial resolution for the period 2008–2012. To analyze intra-urban variability, the study utilizes the CGLC-MODIS-LCZ dataset, which integrates the Copernicus Global Land Service Land Cover (CGLC) product, resampled to MODIS IGBP classes (CGLC-MODIS), and combined with Local Climate Zones (LCZ). A comprehensive evaluation is conducted across different LCZs for key variables, including 2-m air temperature (T2), 2-m relative humidity (RH), and land surface temperature (LST). Model output is evaluated against station-based observations for T2 and RH, while LST is evaluated using data from the MODIS Terra and MODIS Aqua satellites, with assessments performed at diurnal, monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. Results demonstrate the variability of T2, RH and LST amongst the LCZs and highlight the importance of localized modelling in addressing climate change impacts in this city.