First results from the implementation of a new fire-spread model in FireHUB platform

To mitigate the growing intensity, duration, and frequency of wildfires in recent years, leveraging the latest forecasting tools and maximizing their capabilities is essential. The FireHUB platform, provided by Beyond Operational Unit of the National Observatory of Athens, has been a reliable decision-support system utilized by numerous decision-makers and public bodies. It is also a continuously evolving platform. The most recent enhancement, implemented under the framework of the MedEWSa project, involves the deployment of a brand-new fire-spread model, offering several comparative advantages that are presented in this study.

A variety of atmospheric and soil parameters (e.g., wind, air/soil temperature and humidity, fuel density) are necessary to accurately predict fire spread information. Many of these factors are influenced by local topographical features, making high-resolution forecasts crucial. Additionally, the ability of a fire-spread model to ingest and process spatiotemporally variable fields is critical. Deploying the ForeFIRE code in combination with finer grid scales from our atmospheric operational forecasts (2-km resolution) demonstrated significant strengths over the existing system. In a series of simulated fire episodes, predictions from the old model and the new model are compared against satellite-derived burnt scar maps to evaluate their performance. The new system is expected to operate in a pseudo-operational mode alongside the existing service during the 2025 fire season and to fully replace the operational fire-spread model by 2026.