Climate risk storylines for Ethiopia: compounding impacts from climate change, conflict and social assistance

The humanitarian community is actively working to mitigate the human impact of extreme weather and climate events. Social protection is increasingly recognized as a promising mechanism to address the challenges posed by climate change, as it supports individuals and households in managing climate risks, thereby addressing drivers of vulnerability, building resilience capacities and contribute to adaptation strategies (Costella & McCord, 2023).

In this study, we focus on Ethiopia—a country grappling with the compounded risks of climate change and conflict—to examine the historical interplay between climate-related hazards, conflict, and social protection on food security. Our analysis centers on regions in Amhara and Oromia, where the national Productive Safety Net Programme has been operational for over 15 years.

Recently, Ethiopia has experienced severe floods and droughts that have significantly impacted crop yields, prices, and food security. However, future rainfall projections for the country exhibit considerable uncertainties. To address this, we are developing plausible future climate risk storylines that incorporate these uncertainties in rainfall projections and integrate both quantitative and qualitative insights from our historical analysis. These storylines aim to inform resilience-building efforts and the development of effective social protection systems and adaptation measures.