Climate Extremes and Risk: Connecting Climate Science and Decision-Making via Interdisciplinary Approaches Focusing on Climate Impacts

One of the pressing challenges of our time is bridging the gap between climate science and decision-making to effectively manage risks from climate change, with weather and climate extremes being central to climate-related risk. Traditional climate science predominantly employs probabilistic approaches, generating large model ensembles to explore likely ranges of future conditions. While valuable, this approach often neglects low-likelihood, high-impact events that pose profound risks to society [1].

Strengthening the connection between climate science and decision-making is increasingly critical, particularly as the frequency and severity of extreme weather events rise. Integrated risk assessment and management require a holistic approach encompassing robust knowledge of potential impacts, hazard identification, risk monitoring, early warning and effective communication. While uncertainties in climate projections and predictions are unavoidable, they should not result in decision paralysis. Instead, the focus should be on interdisciplinary collaboration and enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts [2].

This talk will address recent approaches, highlighting the importance of bridging disciplines and incorporating user-needs to address the complex challenges posed by climate risks. For instance, event-based storylines considering high-impact events, integrating system vulnerability and exposure to better assess risk will be discussed. When co-developed by climate scientists and stakeholders, storylines informed by physical climate and impact modeling provide actionable insights tailored to specific contexts.

 

References

[1] Sillmann J, Shepherd TG, van den Hurk B, Hazeleger W, Martius O, Zscheischler J, 2021: Event-based storylines to address climate risk, Earth’s Future, 9, doi: 10.1029/2020EF001783.

[2] Sillmann J, Raupach TH, Findell KL, Donat M, Alves LM, Alexander L, Borchert L, Borges de Amorim P, Buontempo C, Fischer EM, Franzke CL, Guan B, Haasnoot M, Hawkins E, Jacob D, Mahon R, Maraun D, Morrison MA, Poschlod B, Ruane AC, Shampa, Stephenson T, van der Wel N, Wang Z, Zhang X and Županić J, 2024: Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making. Front. Clim. 6:1499765. doi: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1499765.