Advancing Multi-Hazard Risk Analysis: An Innovative Information System for Impact Chains-based Systematic Review and Knowledge Storage.

The increasing complexity of multi-hazard risk environments demands innovative, systematic knowledge management and analysis tools. To address this challenge, the EC-funded HORIZON project PARATUS analysed past disaster events and current risks across four multi-hazard case studies: Romania, Turkey, the Caribbean, and the Alps, employing Impact Chains as its primary analytical framework. Impact Chains proved successful in supporting risk analysis, providing an intuitive graphical conceptual representation of risk which can be co-developed with both domain experts and stakeholders. It allows highlighting the interactions among hazards, impacts, exposure, and vulnerability, including their cascading effects, while explicitly accounting for risk reduction and climate change adaptation measures. However, as the complexity of multi-hazard risk conditions increases, so do the impact chains, possibly resulting in exceedingly complicated representations. Also, purely graphical models might not be able to convey the necessary amount and quality of information needed to analyse complex multi-hazard events.

To overcome these limitations, we developed an enhanced knowledge management system (KMS) to systematically store and review the impact chains developed for the four PARATUS case studies. This system builds upon the existing Climate Risk Planning and Managing (CRISP) tool for development programmes (https://crisp.eurac.edu/). While the CRISP tool was designed to provide climate risk knowledge for Agri-Food systems, the PARATUS analysis extends this scope to multiple sectors and enables a systematic review of impact chains. The resulting Impact Chain KMS hence acts as an interactive knowledge repository for consulting and browsing information within the impact chain, fostering knowledge transfer and learning.

The system presents risk elements in both visual and tabular formats, organising the impact chain factors into categories: hazards, impacts, vulnerabilities, risk reduction or adaptation measures, exposure, and risks. Each factor is documented with descriptions, tags, sources, and connections to other risk elements.

SPARQL Protocol and RDF Query Language leverage the analysis beyond the impact chain knowledge management system. Transforming the Impact Chain database into an RDF-compatible format enabled deeper offline exploration through sophisticated analytical approaches. These tools enabled detailed exploration of relationships between hazards, vulnerabilities, and impacts, helping identify critical nodes within the system. Furthermore, generating visual representations and quantitative overviews offered clear, evidence-based insights into intricate relationships and dependencies.

This study highlights the value of the Impact Chain KMS in advancing multi-hazard risk analysis by enabling systematic exploration of complex risk relations. Analysing the impact chains produced within the PARATUS project through the KMS contributes to getting insights into underlying patterns of hazard-impact cascading effects and vulnerabilities across diverse geographical contexts.  These insights can potentially support decision-making for risk reduction strategies and can be adapted for multihazard risk analysis in other regions.