Assessing the impact of climate variability and change on hydrological systems and water resources is important for society to better adapt to future shifts in water availability and extreme events such as floods and droughts. However, significant uncertainties remain in projecting these impacts, particularly those associated with internal/natural climate variability and hydrological response to changes in climatic forcing at multi-annual to multi-decadal timescales. Differences in model realizations, interannual to decadal variability, and the influence of major climate modes (e.g., ENSO, NAO, AMO) can substantially modify hydrological responses, potentially altering the expected effects of human-induced climate change. Understanding how these climate patterns interact with catchment properties (e.g., vegetation cover and groundwater support) and land-use changes is essential for improving hydrological predictions.
Catchments are complex systems that respond to climate forcing across multiple timescales. Yet, hydrological models often struggle to accurately capture these responses, suggesting potential misrepresentation or omission of key processes, timescales, and feedback. It is necessary to disentangle the interactions between hydrological, biophysical, and climatic drivers to enhance model realism and predictive skills.
This session invites contributions that advance our understanding of hydrological variability and extremes under climate variability and change, including:
1. The role of internal climate variability in shaping hydrological extremes and long-term water resource availability;
2. Advances in understanding hydrological and biophysical processes governing catchment responses to climate shifts;
3. Studies applying hydrological regularities (e.g., the Budyko hypothesis) to improve predictions under changing conditions;
4. Investigations of catchment “memory” and its representation in models;
5. Efforts to enhance the robustness of hydrological simulations under future climate variability and change through newly developed probabilistic and storyline impact scenarios.
Understanding, Predicting, and Modelling Hydrological Variability and Extremes Under Climate Change and Variability
Convener:
Bastien Dieppois
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Co-conveners:
Margarita Saft,
Gabrielle BurnsECSECS,
Giulia Bruno,
Sandra Pool,
Amulya Chevuturi,
Wilson ChanECSECS