Coastal seas play a critical role in removing carbon from the atmosphere and sequestering it in marine sediments, partially offsetting anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The North Sea, despite its shallow depth, intense tidal mixing, and increasing anthropogenic pressures, stores over a million tonnes of organic carbon (OC) annually in the deep Norwegian Trench, and exports OC to the Skagerrak Strait. However, the rapid pace of global climate change is disrupting biogeochemical cycles, including carbon dynamics in coastal seas.
In recent decades, the North Sea has become a hotspot for offshore wind farm (OWF) construction. Their hard substrates are colonized by filter feeders (e.g., blue mussels), which filter OC particles from the water column and biodeposit them onto the seabed, creating localized areas of carbon-enriched sediments near OWFs.
As part of the JPI Climate & Oceans project CE2COAST, which aims to evaluate pressures on coastal seas and their ecosystem services under a changing climate, we developed a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-wave-sediment-biogeochemical-diagenetic model. This model covers the North Sea, utilizing a 5x5 km resolution horizontal grid and a vertical grid comprising 30 water column layers and 26 sediment layers. It integrates pelagic and benthic biogeochemical processes, simulating sedimentary fluxes and solute diffusion at the sediment-water interface. OWFs are represented in the model as surface areas suitable for bivalve colonization, based on their location and turbine density. Changes to sediment properties that affect OC resuspension are incorporated to represent the retention of deposited OC by local ecosystems. The model has been calibrated and validated using available physical and biogeochemical data for both pelagic and sedimentary environments.
The model is used to assess the combined effects of climate change and OWFs on biogeochemical cycling, with a focus on carbon cycling and sequestration. Simulations were conducted for both current (1993–2023) and future climates (up to 2100) under the IPCC SSP370 “upper-middle” scenario. Scenarios for OWF construction were based on plans for 2035 and assumed constant until the end of the century. The model was forced by a regional atmospheric model (MAR), driven by outputs from the MPI climate model and at the lateral open boundaries by outputs from the NorESM2 Earth System model.
Key findings from comparisons between present conditions and projections include higher remineralization rates of organic carbon in both the water column and upper sediment layers, along with enhanced conditions for phytoplankton carbon fixation via photosynthesis. While increased primary production offsets higher remineralization rates in the water column, OWF construction along the European coast significantly alters traditional carbon transport pathways. Instead of being transported to the Skagerrak Strait and the Norwegian Trench, more organic carbon is retained in the shallow European shelf. This enhances the North Sea’s capacity to sequester OC in the medium term but raises concerns about its fate following the OWF decommissioning and the removal of hard substrates.
This study highlights the complex interplay of physical and biogeochemical processes in the North Sea and emphasizes the importance of coupled modeling approaches to predict future changes in carbon storage under a changing climate and increasing anthropogenic influence.