PICO
The OptFor-EU Horizon Europe project seeks to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) that provides science-based guidance for optimizing Forest Ecosystem Services (FES) across Europe, with a focus on decarbonization and resilience in response to climate change. A cornerstone of this effort is the development of a novel set of Essential Forest Mitigation Indicators (EFMI) designed to guide forest managers in assessing and enhancing forests' carbon mitigation potential through targeted management practices in eight European case study areas but also scalable for application in other regions.
The development of the EFMI set within the OptFor-EU project is a beneficial support for forest management and climate mitigation practices. This work is innovative on multiple fronts, combining methodological novelty, practical applicability, and technological integration to address previously unfulfilled needs for evidence-based visualization and decision support in forest management.
The EFMI were developed using a participatory, bottom-up approach to ensure their relevance, feasibility, and applicability for stakeholders. Rooted in the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES) framework, the indicators emphasize carbon storage, sequestration, and the broader impacts of forest management practices (FMPs) on decarbonization, forest resilience, and old-growth characteristics. The EFMI also incorporate indicators for regional climate regulation, enabling quantification of the effects of forest cover changes on local and regional climates.
The process to define the EFMI began with an extensive review of existing literature and indicator sets, identifying 130 potential indicators. Through internal evaluation and participatory external stakeholder involvement, this list was refined to a set of 22 essential indicators. These are supported by publicly accessible data derived from advanced forest and climate modeling, satellite data, and extensive data mining. Ongoing regional forest and climate modeling experiments will further enable the simulation of FMP impacts on climate conditions and calculation of relevant EFMI.
As the project advances, the EFMI set will be integrated into the DSS, tested across case study areas, and scaled from local to European level. By focusing on this stakeholder-driven set of indicators, the OptFor-EU project ensures its outcomes directly support forest managers in aligning forest management practices with European climate and forest policy goals, while enhancing the long-term sustainability and resilience of forest ecosystem services. The EFMI serve as a innovative, feasible tool for translating policy into actionable, evidence-based forest management strategies.
This study was funded by the Horizon Europe Project OptFor-EU (Grant agreement n°101060554).
How to cite: Linser, S. and the OptFor-EU project partners: Essential Forest Mitigation Indicators: A participatory, stakeholder-driven approach to guide carbon mitigation through forest management practices in Europe with application in a decision support system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13658, 2025.
Carbon sinks and stocks are among the most important ecosystem services provided by forests in climate change mitigation policies. In this context, old-growth forests represent an essential reference point for the development of close-to-nature silviculture, including carbon management techniques. Despite their small extent in Europe, temperate old-growth forests are assumed to be among the most prominent in terms of biomass and carbon storage. However, monitoring and reporting of their carbon stocks is still poorly understood. To better understand the amount and distribution of carbon stocks in temperate old-growth forests, we estimated the carbon stocks of two old-growth stands in the Dinaric Alps applying different assessment methods, including direct and indirect approaches (e.g., field measurements and allometric equations vs. IPCC standard methods). This paper presents the quantification and the distribution of carbon among the five main forest carbon pools (i.e., aboveground, belowground, deadwood, litter, and soil) in the study areas and the differences between the applied methods.
Our findings show a very prominent C stock in both study areas (507 Mg C ha-1), concentrated in a few large diameter trees (36% of C in 5% of trees in number). Furthermore, we found significant differences between C stock estimation methods, both between direct and indirect approaches, which tended to underestimate or overestimate depending on the pool considered, and within the direct methods.
The comparison of our results with previous studies and data collected in other European old-growth forests highlights the importance of temperate forests, among which the Dinaric Alps old-growth forests are the most prominent. These results provide an important benchmark for the development of future approaches to the management of the European temperate forests.
How to cite: Bono, A., Alberti, G., Berretti, R., Curovic, M., Dukic, V., and Motta, R.: The largest European forest carbon stocks are in the Dinaric Alps old-growth forests: comparison of direct measurements and standardised approaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3872, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3872, 2025.
Forests are pivotal in global carbon and biogeochemical cycles, covering nearly 40% of Europe's land area and sequestering approximately 290 million tons of CO₂ equivalent annually (as of 2020). However, the strength of this carbon sink is declining, having dropped by roughly one-third between 2010 and 2020 (from 430 to 290 million tons CO₂ equivalent per year, according to the national inventories). This decline threatens the role of European forests in achieving EU climate mitigation targets.
The resilience of forest ecosystems and their ability to mitigate climate change depend on how they respond and acclimate to intensifying climate extremes and disturbances. CLEANFOREST COST Action (CA21138, https://cleanforest.eu/) unites almost 400 participants organized in 4 Working Groups (WG) to develop a comprehensive understanding of the combined impacts of climate extremes and atmospheric deposition on European forests. One of the key objectives of CLEANFOREST is to disentangle the interactions between global change drivers and the responses of tree- and soil-related biogeochemical processes. Specifically, within WG3, we examine the three primary carbon fluxes—gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco), and their balance, net ecosystem productivity (NEP)—that determine the net forest carbon sink. While GPP reflects canopy-level photosynthesis, Reco includes heterotrophic respiration from soil decomposition and autotrophic respiration from vegetation and soil.
In this study, we review the effects of multiple global change drivers—such as droughts, heatwaves, nitrogen deposition, elevated atmospheric CO₂, and understudied extremes like winter warming—on carbon fluxes, acclimation, and resilience of European forests. We synthesize findings on the interacting roles of these drivers and propose a conceptual framework that links biotic and abiotic factors with forest conditions. This framework provides insights into how forests' carbon sink capacity responds to these drivers, offering a foundation for strategies to enhance their resilience and climate mitigation potential.
How to cite: Gharun, M., Migliavacca, M., Vanguelova, E., Zhiyanski, M., and Guerrieri, R.: Effect of climate extremes on carbon fluxes, acclimation, and resilience of European forests , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5061, 2025.
Large-scale scenario analysis to project development of European forest resources and explore the effect of climate change and forest use scenarios is a key requirement for policy making and has attracted much attention recently.
In a recent study we harness the individual-tree based ecosystem model PICUS v1.5 to simulate 20 mill ha forests in five Central European (CE) countries (Germany, Czechia, Slovakia, Austria, Slovenia). In a quasi-spatial frame work we assigned 46 mixture types which had been defined based on the national forest inventory (NFI) data to 8x8 km grid-cells and distribute these mixture types over 1x1km sub-cells considering CORINE landcover types and regional age-class distributions. A gap-filling algorithm had been used to complete the information base for all 5 countries. PICUS includes disturbance modules for spruce bark beetles and wind storms. Current climate and three transient climate change scenarios were prepared for each 1x1km cell. Currently applied management regimes (BAU) had been operationally defined for the mixture types based on reports and interviews with experts from the five countries. BAU includes also a share of not actively managed forests. Five management response options from owner´s perspective were defined, including a no management option. BAU and the response options were then combined in six adaptive management scenarios for the entire CE forest area.
Under conditions of moderate climate change volume stocks can be retained under BAU management. If precipitation decreases, a drastic reduction of growth at lower elevations results, in parallel with a sharp increase of salvage harvests. Stocks decrease due to reduced increment and high tree mortality. Adaptive management is replacing productive coniferous and broad-leaved species by more drought and heat tolerant broadleaves which overall are less productive. The more extreme future climate develops the sooner adaptive management approaches reduce potential losses and stabilize production and stocks and perform better than the currently practiced management would. Non-native species such as Douglas fir improve the net effect of adaptation strategies further.
Beyond selected results we scrutinize currently available means and conclude on useful improvements.
How to cite: Lexer, M., Hochauer, C., Neumann, M., Pucher, C., and Formayer, H.: Simulating Central-European forests in the 21st century – What are the effects of climate change and management?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7474, 2025.
Temperate forests are crucial in global carbon dynamics, acting as significant carbon pools through biomass accumulation and soil organic matter storage. This study investigates the dynamics of the forest floor, soil organic matter, and carbon stock estimation on species type, age and forest management. The research focuses on Romania's temperate forests, on broadleaf, coniferous and mixed stands in the Southern Carpathians. The measurements were conducted across a systematic grid network of 450 plots, each combining two circular plots of 500 m² in size. These plots span an altitudinal gradient from 500 to 1650 meters above sea level (ASL), providing a robust dataset for analyzing carbon dynamics. Our research evaluates the contribution of forest floor components - litter, coarse woody debris and fine roots - to total carbon stocks, alongside soil organic matter dynamics at 30 cm depth. The study also integrates tree biomass data for major species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), silver fir (Abies alba Mill. ), and Norway spruce (Picea abies L.), providing a comprehensive assessment of carbon sequestration potential.
Our preliminary results reveal significant differences in both forest floor weight and bulk density between management types. Plots in conservation areas had a significantly higher mean forest floor weight (21.1 tonnes/ha) than production plots (17.9 tonnes/ha, p < 0.01), while their mean bulk density was significantly lower (0.84 Mg/m³ vs. 0.96 Mg/m³, p < 0.01). These findings, combined with higher forest floor weight in conservation plots, underline the critical role of management strategies on soil carbon storage. The results also highlight the influence of forest type, stand age, and management practices on carbon storage, emphasizing their importance in climate change mitigation and sustainable forest management. This study provides valuable insights for optimizing forest management strategies to enhance carbon sequestration and improve understanding of carbon fluxes in temperate ecosystems. The findings are particularly relevant for aligning forest policies with national and international climate goals.
How to cite: Petrea, S., Radu, G. R., Tudose, N. C., Marin, M., Braga, C. I., Zaharia, A., Cucu, A. B., Serban, T., Ienasoiu, G., and Leca, S.: Dynamics of Forest Floor, Soil Organic Matter, and Carbon Stock Estimation in Temperate Forests of Romania, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9754, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9754, 2025.
Facing an uncertain future, European forests are expected to fulfill a range of forest ecosystem services (FES), including timber supply, carbon storage or biodiversity. Using criteria and indicators forest managers can evaluate alternative management options and decision support systems (DSS) help them make decisions considering multiple objectives, trade-offs and complex interrelations of forest structure, management and FES. An important tool to support DSSs are modelling tools, that are capable of estimating future forest development under various climate scenarios and management practices and thus define possible development trajectories of European forests. Here we report on the simulation results in the project “OptFor-EU” using the hybrid forest model PICUS v1.5 for three case study areas in Austria, Italy and Romania. We use six different climate inputs (3 RCPs, 2 Regional climate models) and up to nine management alternatives in simulations until year 2099. The initial stand structure was derived using forest inventory data. Validating our results with remote sensing based primary production and leaf area index data, reveals general good agreement, if we consider differences in stand age and stand density. We derive selected indicators from a preliminary set of Essential Forest Mitigation Indicators (EFMI) to evaluate our simulations. Forest carbon, one of the most important regulatory FES, was more sensitive to forest management alternatives than to climate input. Deadwood volume, important not just as carbon storage and water retention, but also habitat to saproxylic organisms, increased under a “no harvesting” management alternative, which may become more frequent in the European Union under the new Nature Restoration law. Other indicators such as multi-layeredness, number of species and the Gini index show an opposite trend over the simulation period. The starting conditions (initial forest structure) overlay the effects of forest management and need prudent consideration, when incorporating simulation results into a DSS, as the outcomes of forest management varies depending on which development phase a forest of interest currently is. We conclude that current simulations using PICUS v1.5 in OptForEU are promising, but further model comparisons are needed to use model outputs for upscaling impacts of climate and management scenarios on a landscape scale.
References
Langner, A., Irauschek, F., Perez, S., Pardos, M., Zlatanov, T., Öhman, K., Nordström, E.-M., Lexer, M.J., 2017. Value-based ecosystem service trade-offs in multi-objective management in European mountain forests. Ecosystem Services 26, 245–257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.03.001.
Irauschek, F., Rammer, W., Lexer, M.J., 2017. Evaluating multifunctionality and adaptive capacity of mountain forest management alternatives under climate change in the Eastern Alps. Eur J Forest Res 136, 1051–1069. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-017-1051-6.
How to cite: Pichler, J. and Neumann, M.: Sensitivity of forest model simulations to initial stand conditions, climate and management scenarios based on a novel indicator set, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10027, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10027, 2025.
The forest-climate nexus highlights the challenges and the opportunities for change within communities resulting from the multifaceted relationships that arise over time and in specific geographic contexts. The relationships between society, forest and climate are essential for transformation, leveraging the understanding of ecological and physical processes which are strongly correlated to forest management and governance. In forestry, global discussions have polarized the discourse on climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, societal needs emerging from conflicts at the forefront of forest-climate nexus have shown the crucial role of human and local dimensions which is not surprisingly, mediated by international framing of events. To shed the light on the importance of collaboration, science-practice interactions contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation, often through knowledge transfer under the form of dialogue, engaging communities in contributing to a better knowledge base for practical decision-making. Developing forest management policies as well as forest-wood chain towards sustainability requires a high level of cooperation between stakeholders including forest owners, wood industries, public authority and local communities as recipients of a diversity of forest services.
This study provides insights on forest practitioners and their forest management plans across Europe in relation to climate change. It facilitates knowledge transfer among different types of actors across different European forest ecosystems and their species composition but also provides an overview of the stakeholder’s knowledge regarding climate change impacts, the adaptation measures they have implemented, and the challenges they face in mitigating climate change.
The methodological approach is based on empirical social science research methods with an emphasis on a bottom-up approach which was carried out through 56 semi-structured face-to-face interviews performed in 8 case study areas (CSA) in Europe (Italy, Spain, Romania, Austria, Germany, UK, Lithuania, Norway) with relevant stakeholders. This was complemented by primary and secondary document analysis of forest management practices, selected upon criteria including ecosystem services. Under the forest-climate nexus, stakeholders from all CSAs have reported an increase in climatic parameters such as extreme weather events like strong wind-storms and wind throws. This was complemented by the perceived climate change impact on forests, especially the expansion of the growing season and increased pest activity. This is the case of more bark beetle flights which have been the most seen impact on forests with a negative sentiment of on-going increment of the warming trend, but also regarding the demand for firewood due to warmer winters. Adaptation measures have prioritized natural regeneration and maintaining continuous forest cover while avoiding gaps. However, challenges and barriers in implementation hinders transition to more adapted species and lower production cycles, increasing the uncertainty of climate change related impacts. The analysis suggests a need for more flexible and supportive policies, as well as financial incentives, to enable forest managers to effectively adapt to the changing climate and its medium to long term impact, a conclusion which validates that collaboration through knowledge transfer addresses existing on-ground problems and should be used more.
How to cite: Hapa, M.-I., Ludvig, A., Ungurean, C., Baltranaitė, E., Gotschi, E., Knutzen, F., Giannetti, F., Mitter, H., Zorzi, I., Anand, J., Cremonini, L., Riera-Spiegelhalder, M., Johannessen, M. R., Neumann, M., Marin, M., Tudose, N., Radu, R., Davidescu, S., Cheval, S., and Georgiadis, T.: Collaborative Dynamics at the Forest–Climate Nexus: Merging Practice with Science, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10435, 2025.
Forest modeling is essential for understanding ecosystem dynamics, evaluating future scenarios, and supporting informed decision–making, mainly given the long–life cycles of trees. Within the 4–year project (2023–2027) “OPTimising FORest management decisions for a low–carbon, climate–resilient future in Europe” (OptFor–EU), several model types, including forest, climate, and land surface vegetation models, are used to simulate forest dynamics under climate scenarios. A primary project effort includes developing and testing new Forest Management Practices (FMPs), building on widely used management practices such as clearcut, shelterwood, and continuous forest cover using single tree harvesting. These FMPs are crucial for generating accurate forest future representation, as most European forests undergo active management (State of Europe’s forests, 2020).
The 3D–CMCC–FEM model plays a central role in the OptFor–EU project. It is a process–based model simulating forest eco–physiological, and biogeochemical processes, developed to simulate different forest management scenarios. It accounts for species differences, age classes, and tree dimensions, modeling carbon and water cycles on a daily basis at a hectare scale (Collalti et al., 2014, 2018, 2024; Dalmonech et al., 2022). It has been widely applied in European forests, making it perfectly fitting for OptFor–EU purposes (i.e., Collalti et al., 2016; Marconi et al., 2017; Morichetti et al., 2024; Vangi et al., 2024a).
The simulations focus on three case study areas: Austria, Romania, and Italy, representing alpine, temperate, and Mediterranean ecosystems, respectively. Climate data from the EURO–CORDEX regional models HIRHAM5 and RACMO22E, aligned with CMIP5 scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), are used to drive the simulations (Jacob et al., 2020). Forest stands are grouped by species composition and 20–year age classes to ensure heterogeneity. Simulations target a minimum of 50 plots per European Forest Type (EFT), ensuring statistical robustness.
Different FMPs are tested under the same climate conditions to isolate the impacts of management on forest carbon stocks. For instance, considering the EFT 6 (Fagus sylvatica L.), for AC1 (i.e., Age Class 0–20), NOMAN results in the highest biomass carbon stocks in the end of simulation (250 tC ha–¹) due to the absence of harvesting. Shelterwood management (BAU), involving periodic thinnings and final harvesting, achieves near–NOMAN carbon levels. Variants like BAU+ (increased thinning) target larger products, whereas BAU– (reduced thinning) promotes denser forests with higher carbon stocks. Continuous cover systems apply single–tree harvesting every decade, fostering uneven–aged stands. These methods sustain carbon stocks between 100–200 tC ha–¹. In contrast, low–intensity harvesting (5 m3 ha–¹ per year), suitable for protecting forests prone to disturbances, leads to moderate carbon storage trends.
This comparative approach provides valuable insights for decision–makers, enabling the development of tailored forest management strategies that consider ecological and climatic contexts. By integrating diverse FMPs and climate scenarios, OptFor–EU supports sustainable forest management for a low–carbon, and climate–resilient future in Europe.
How to cite: Morichetti, M., Dalmonech, D., Grieco, E., Vangi, E., and Collalti, A.: Assessing forest management practices across Europe under climate scenarios: insights from the 3D–CMCC–FEM model in the OptFor–EU Project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10860, 2025.
Tree cover is often increased with the aim of increasing ecosystem carbon sequestration and mitigating climate change. However, when planting trees in ecosystems with carbon-rich soils, soil disturbance during ground preparation can cause soil carbon losses not counteracted by tree carbon gains at the decadal timescales relevant to climate change mitigation targets. Tree establishment via natural colonisation, which does not involve soil disturbance, might prevent these soil carbon losses, but this is unknown.
We measured soil, ground vegetation, and tree carbon stocks, as well as tree inputs, soil physicochemical properties, and soil community composition along an 8 metre transect from single, native, 25-year-old naturally colonised trees (Pinus sylvestris or Betula spp.) onto Calluna vulgaris-dominated moorland, at sites with carbon-rich organo-mineral soils in the Cairngorms, UK.
Along the transect away from the tree, organic soil carbon stocks increased from 4.0 kg C m-2 at 0.5 metres, to 6.0 kg C m-2 at 8 metres. Increased soil carbon stocks along the transect was associated with increased soil moisture and decreased carbon-to-nitrogen and carbon-to-phosphorus ratios, and changes to the soil bacterial and fungal community compositions. Meanwhile, carbon stocks in the top 10 cm of the mineral soil horizon, 3.6 kg C m-2, did not vary. Ground vegetation carbon stocks increased only slightly, from 1.0 kg C m-2 at 0.5 metres, to 1.3 kg C m-2 at 8 metres. Mean carbon stock per tree was 32.4 kg, so overall, sparse natural colonisation resulted in no net ecosystem carbon gain after 25 years.
However, trees might be established onto carbon-rich soils for a range of other ecosystem services, in addition to or instead of carbon storage benefits, such as biodiversity benefits, flood alleviation, water purification, and recreation. The trade-offs between soil carbon losses and these other benefits should be considered, and given that belowground carbon losses are offset by aboveground tree carbon gains, sparse natural tree colonisation could provide a mechanism for tree establishment whereby there is no net ecosystem carbon loss or gain on a decadal timescale, but other ecosystem services are increased.
How to cite: Housego, N., Parker, T., Street, L., Vanguelova, E., and Mitchell, R.: Natural tree colonisation of organo-mineral soils does not provide a net carbon capture benefit at decadal timescales, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11365, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11365, 2025.
Climate change directly affects forests in Central Europe challenging the way how they are managed under current and future conditions. As forests provide essential ecosystem functions and services to society, such as carbon uptake and storage, urgent solutions are needed to enhance their resilience to climate change. To meet this challenge and address the question of how we can make forests resilient to climate change now and in the future, we have established a new platform in Lower Saxony/Germany through the FoResLab project. A highly interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approach was chosen to bring together experts from multiple institutions and practise partners ensuring close collaboration between science, the private sector, and civil society.
Organised into three platforms and 13 subprojects, FoResLab will pursue innovative ways of inter- and transdisciplinary research, science communication, and knowledge transfer. In the Experimental Platform, we will investigate relevant ecosystem functions and services using a harmonised experimental design and near-real-time sensor technology at six highly instrumented forest sites using eddy covariance, dendrometer, sapflux, and laser scan measurements. This will enable us to derive multi-functional indicators of forest resilience to climate change. The Experimental Platform will also serve to test and validate the Digital Platform, where airborne and spaceborne remote sensing, along with modelling approaches, will provide two online products available to stakeholders and the public: (1) Digital Twins of our experimental sites will enable the exploration of management options for real-world forests in a digital environment, and (2) an Online Forest Water Stress Monitor will provide high spatio-temporal resolution for near real-time forest monitoring in Lower Saxony and beyond. The Societal Platform will foster transdisciplinary research, stimulate synthesis publications, and ensure comprehensive stakeholder involvement. Through Göttingen’s new knowledge museum, Forum Wissen, we will explore novel ways in digital education, public events, and science communication, thus connecting science, politics, and society. Through its research, stakeholder and society involvement, as well as academic and non-academic knowledge transfer, FoResLab aims to provide a fundamental step towards forests resilient to climate change.
How to cite: Knohl, A., Drollinger, S., Ammer, C., Beyer, M., Biester, H., Hartmann, H., Koessler, A.-K., Magdon, P., Mallick, K., Paul, C., Potsch, S., Seidel, D., Talkner, U., and Teuscher, M.: FoResLab - Future Lab towards Forests Resilient to Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11709, 2025.
So far, policy mixes have been presented in scholarly literature as viable solutions for addressing complex problems. However, there has been a lack of empirical investigation to date, and even more so in the nature-based sectors that simultaneously advocate for the protection of forests and the production of wood. This is not surprising, as policy mixes include inputs, administrative processes and outputs of all kinds of individual programs and instruments included in such a mix, which appears messy to evaluate. The research explores the empirical reality of European-wide perceptions of institutional factors that aim to regulate climate adaptation, mitigation, restoration, protection, and wood production for both energetic and material uses. In order to investigate how the policy mix can be navigated, we focus methodologically on the perspectives of a selected target group of forestry stakeholders across regional case studies and European as well as global forestry related organizations.
By conducting a survey with 168 stakeholders, some additional expert interviews and a policy mapping, our results reveal how stakeholders perceive the "policy mix" in terms of institutional frameworks and their fostering and hindering elements. In the discussion section, we identify and analyze the categories of this policy mix.
Our conclusions indicate that the current bundle of policies is not well-coordinated and is challenging to manage due to sectoral differences. The policy mix suffers from trade-offs and soft coordination. Additionally, we examine aspects that work well, drawing insights from the surveys open questions and qualitative insights from the selected case studies.
To summarize, our research highlights the importance of institutional frameworks and governance mechanisms in supporting effective forest management. We identify key hindering and supporting factors, assess institutional gaps, and analyze policy barriers that impact the implementation of forest-based mitigation strategies. We contribute to discussions on contradicting socio-economic aspects of these strategies and provides recommendations for multi-level governance solutions.
How to cite: Ludvig, A., Cheval, S., Cremonini, L., Georgiadis, T., Giannetti, F., Gotschi, E., Hapa, M., Lionggo, I., Marin, M., Mitter, H., Neumann, M., Oprica, R., Riera-Spiegelhalder, M., Tudose, N., Weiss, G., Zorzi, I., and de Melo, K.: Navigating the Policy Mix: Institutional Frameworks and Governance Mechanisms for climate-resilient forests in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12378, 2025.
In countries such as Italy, there is a notable skewing of the population pyramid toward older age groups and individuals with chronic health conditions. This demographic shift is anticipated to result in increased social costs. It would be advantageous to enhance the physiological conditions and socialization opportunities for the elderly, as this may lead to improved overall well-being and reduced healthcare expenditures. It can be reasonably argued that there is a substantial potential for the ecosystem services provided by forest and woodland ecosystems to benefit this particularly vulnerable population. Due to its distinctive territorial configuration, Italy presents many opportunities for implementing restoration policies. A crucial step is to evaluate the actual welfare benefits that natural areas can offer. To this end, an experimental campaign was conducted in the Parma area of northern Italy, which aimed to assess the positive impact of ecosystem services compared to urban environments. This study's results support the notion that policies encouraging the temporary residency of the elderly in forested and wooded areas may facilitate physiological recovery.
This study was conducted and funded by the Project "OptForEU" Grant Agreement number 101060554 European Research Executive Agency (https://optforeu.eu/
How to cite: Georgiadis, T., Cremonini, L., Fazzini, M., Corvaro, F., and Ruberto, A.: Monitoring the ecosystem services provided by a woodland area in North-Eastern Italy for the population’s well-being , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1416, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1416, 2025.
In managing ecosystems, it is important to understand the ‘natural’ regime in an ecosystem (Willis and Birks 2006), wherein what is ‘natural’ means the variation in ecosystem traits and properties as a function of climate variables and disturbance regimes across time. Components of ecosystems may be very dynamic (Brown et al. 2001) and be formed by historical legacies of disturbance regimes (Maezumi et al. 2022). However, modern scientists are unable to understand the underlying dynamism in ecosystems because they only have access to present-day distribution of species and ecosystem traits. Long-term ecological research stations are at best <200 years old and may not be able to provide the necessary length of time in which ecosystem dynamics play out. The problem of understanding what is natural is further compounded in the case of economically important timber species as their present-day distribution may far exceed their natural range due to past efforts in creating and managing plantations of these species. The current distribution of many timber species may not be due to natural dispersal, or natural affinity for the environmental conditions in that area, but due to silvicultural imperative. Using only present-day distribution for understanding species also may under-estimate their tolerance for different environmental conditions. This is particularly true for teak (Tectona grandis) and sal (Shorea robusta), two of the most economically valuable timber species in India. At present, they cover large tracts of India (~40%), but their future persistence and resilience under future climate change scenarios is uncertain. We create a paleo-dataset for Central India that includes climate, species composition and human disturbance across space (15 sites across the region) and time (across the Holocene)(Agarwala and Kulkarni, 2024) and use it to understand long-term factors associated with dispersal and extinction of teak and sal. We create spatially-explicit models for teak and sal dispersal and extinction across space and time, and parameterize these models using greenhouse experiments. We find that Sal occurrence is significantly explained by times of higher temperature and sites with higher precipitation and temperature, while teak occurrence is explained by significantly higher temperature. Role of fire appears weak despite being considered important in modern literature. Using this approach, we are able to successfully model teak and sal expansion and extinction, understand the interaction between climate, disturbance and demography. This approach may be used to create more accurate species distribution models than those using only contemporary distribution data.
Agarwala M, Kulkarni C (2024) Quat Environ Hum 100032. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qeh.2024.100032
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How to cite: Agarwala, M. and Kulkarni, C.: Ecology of economically important teak Tectona grandis and sal Shorea robusta informed by palaeo-data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3106, 2025.
Productivity and survival of forest ecosystems, including planted forests, are at great risk from the predicted hotter and drier climate in southern Australia. Pinus radiata plantations are an important economic component in the forestry sector and extensive across southern Australia. Current management practices and stocking densities might not comply with future available resources and thus, better understanding is needed of how to maintain plantation productivity with decreasing water availability and concurrently ensure the water supply for local communities.
In this study rigorous plot-scale water use (transpiration) and soil moisture observations with variable plant available water (PAW) measurements across variable stocking densities and along a natural gradient of soil depth and microclimate within a topographically complex catchment area is used to of water use, productivity and management and to quantify interactions and improve understanding between spatially varying water stores, stand water use and growth dynamics. This will allow to parameterise a forest growth model to optimise stand density and productivity-water use dynamics under varying fertilisation responses and water availability to ensure productivity. In combination with catchment-scale climate and streamflow, upscaling of plot-level hydrological observations, the impact of plantation water use on the local water resource availability is explored that can inform future land use decisions.
How to cite: Hinko-Najera, N. and Lane, P.: Plantation productivity and water use dynamics across a topographically complex catchment area with varying water availability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19767, 2025.
Forests play a critical role in mitigating climate change by acting as carbon sinks and offsetting anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, their ability to sequester carbon is being threatened by factors such as increased demand for wood, natural disturbances, and forest maturity. To address these challenges, the OptFor-EU and ForestNavigator Horizon Europe projects aim to support sustainable forest management practices that enhance carbon sequestration, resilience, and ecosystem services (FES).
The OptFor-EU project focuses on developing a Decision Support System (DSS) tailored to European forests. This system is co-designed with forest managers and stakeholders to provide scientifically-informed strategies for optimizing forest management practices (FMP) across various European forest types. The DSS integrates data from observations, remote sensing, and modeling to assess the current state and future projections of FES. It is tested in eight case study areas and designed to scale across Europe. Key objectives include: (i) Improving the characterization of FES, particularly carbon stocks and sinks, with a focus on old-growth forests; (ii) Enhancing models to simulate the impacts of FMP, socio-economic factors, and climate scenarios on forests and their services; (iii) Providing tools that empower stakeholders to implement sustainable FMP, fostering carbon sequestration and forest resilience.
The ForestNavigator project complements these efforts by assessing the climate mitigation potential of European forests and forest-based sectors. It uses advanced modeling tools and near-real-time monitoring to evaluate the impacts of policy pathways on forest ecosystems and socioeconomic systems. The project aligns with the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) reporting standards and provides policy makers with actionable insights to guide forest policy and bioeconomy strategies. Its scope includes: (i) Zooming into selected EU Member States for detailed assessments while considering global drivers and leakage effects; (ii) Developing a Policy Modelling Toolbox to address climate change impacts and support climate action; (iii) Enhancing the alignment between EU and national climate goals.
Together, these projects bridge robust science, strategic priorities, and stakeholder needs, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, promote the sustainable use of forest resources, and integrate ecological, economic, and societal values at the European scale. By leveraging innovative tools and fostering collaboration, OptFor-EU and ForestNavigator aim to transform forest management practices, ensuring that European forests continue to play a central role in achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
This research received funds from the projects ‘OPTimising FORest management decisions for a low-carbon, climate resilient future in Europe (OptFor-EU)’, under Grant agreement ID: 101060554, and ‘Navigating European Forests and forest bioeconomy sustainably to EU climate neutrality (ForestNavigator)’, under Grant agreement ID: 101056875, funded by the European Union Horizon Europe Programme.
How to cite: Cheval, S. and di Fulvio, F. and the OptFor-EU and ForestNavigator: Optimizing Forest Management for Decarbonisation and Climate Resilience in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17238, 2025.
