CR1.5 | Sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to Past, Present and Future Climate Change
EDI
Sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to Past, Present and Future Climate Change
Convener: Jennifer ArthurECSECS | Co-conveners: Chris R. Stokes, Laura De Santis, Nancy Bertler

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (around 52 metres sea-level equivalent) but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. Recent estimates indicate that the EAIS is broadly in balance, with some marine-based catchments losing mass, whilst others appear to be gaining mass due to increased accumulation. Of concern, however, is that some marine-based sectors that are currently losing mass are thought to have undergone significant retreat during past warm periods such as the Mid-Pliocene, Marine Isotope Stage 11 and potentially as recently as the Last Interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e). These catchments, such as the Wilkes and Aurora Subglacial Basins, are vulnerable to ocean warming and are close to critical locations for the oceanic overturning circulation. Furthermore, model predictions suggest that the melting of the ice sheet grounded over these catchments could contribute several metres to global mean sea-level rise over the next few centuries under medium to high emissions scenarios, despite local increased accumulation. The global impact of mass loss from East Antarctica’s marine basins is thus significant but our understanding of the sensitivity of this important component of the Earth system is hampered by a sparsity of observations, both past and present. This session aims to bring people working on palaeo-records and modern observations of the EAIS together with those using numerical modelling to: (i) facilitate greater interaction between these communities; (ii) highlight recent progress, and (iii) identify and co-ordinate efforts for future research. We solicit contributions from those working on terrestrial and offshore records of palaeo-ice sheet and palaeo-circulation change, together with those working on modern observations of EAIS dynamics, ice shelves and mass balance, as well as those using ice sheet modelling across a range of timescales from past, present, and future. Contributions on ice sheet-ocean interactions, including sea ice, and on impact of past ice sheet changes on ecosystems are also strongly encouraged.

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (around 52 metres sea-level equivalent) but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. Recent estimates indicate that the EAIS is broadly in balance, with some marine-based catchments losing mass, whilst others appear to be gaining mass due to increased accumulation. Of concern, however, is that some marine-based sectors that are currently losing mass are thought to have undergone significant retreat during past warm periods such as the Mid-Pliocene, Marine Isotope Stage 11 and potentially as recently as the Last Interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e). These catchments, such as the Wilkes and Aurora Subglacial Basins, are vulnerable to ocean warming and are close to critical locations for the oceanic overturning circulation. Furthermore, model predictions suggest that the melting of the ice sheet grounded over these catchments could contribute several metres to global mean sea-level rise over the next few centuries under medium to high emissions scenarios, despite local increased accumulation. The global impact of mass loss from East Antarctica’s marine basins is thus significant but our understanding of the sensitivity of this important component of the Earth system is hampered by a sparsity of observations, both past and present. This session aims to bring people working on palaeo-records and modern observations of the EAIS together with those using numerical modelling to: (i) facilitate greater interaction between these communities; (ii) highlight recent progress, and (iii) identify and co-ordinate efforts for future research. We solicit contributions from those working on terrestrial and offshore records of palaeo-ice sheet and palaeo-circulation change, together with those working on modern observations of EAIS dynamics, ice shelves and mass balance, as well as those using ice sheet modelling across a range of timescales from past, present, and future. Contributions on ice sheet-ocean interactions, including sea ice, and on impact of past ice sheet changes on ecosystems are also strongly encouraged.