Soil-erosion models are increasingly popular within the scientific community. These models are often easy to use and enjoy a good reputation with stakeholders and policymakers. In particular, the new EU ‘soil deal for Europe’ is expected to be largely influenced by soil-erosion models and their estimates of how erosion can affect soil health. However, there is a dissonance between what we hope to achieve from modelling and (i) our knowledge of the conceptual and empirical limitations of soil-erosion models, and (ii) our inability to ascertain confidence in model predictions based on empirical measurements that are compatible with model structures. This dissonance has led to a reliability crisis that, left unchecked, risks eroding the credibility of the research field.
This session will foster a discussion on the way out of the reliability crisis by rethinking current challenges in erosion modelling and proposing alternatives to push the science forward. As such, we welcome a wide range of contributions, from critical perspectives to applied research. Specifically, we encourage contributions dealing with:
(i) new approaches to modelling soil erosion
(ii) novel approaches to collecting soil-erosion data
(iii) the use of novel field and/or remote sensing techniques to improve model parameterisation and evaluation
(iv) new or improved methods for model calibration and model testing – particularly approaches that increase model falsifiability and/or that report case studies of model invalidation (if you have “bad” results, we want to hear about it!)
(v) uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis
(vi) the use of erosion models to develop and test hypotheses about soil systems
(vii) translating (uncertain) modelled erosion rates into risk assessments for policymakers
In addition, we expressly encourage contributions that provide critical yet constructive perspectives on soil-erosion modelling and that will enrich the session discussion. We also welcome interdisciplinary contributions bridging the gap between mathematical modelling, sociology and philosophy of science, and policy making.