G3.4 | Measuring and modelling solid-Earth deformation induced by changing loads from liquid and frozen water
Orals |
Thu, 14:00
Thu, 10:45
EDI
Measuring and modelling solid-Earth deformation induced by changing loads from liquid and frozen water
Co-organized by HS13, co-sponsored by SCAR and IACS
Convener: Mohammad J. Tourian | Co-conveners: Matthias O. WillenECSECS, Joëlle Nicolas, Makan KaregarECSECS, Francesca Silverii, Holger Steffen, Caroline van CalcarECSECS
Orals
| Thu, 01 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room K2
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 01 May, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Thu, 01 May, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X1
Orals |
Thu, 14:00
Thu, 10:45

Orals: Thu, 1 May | Room K2

The oral presentations are given in a hybrid format supported by a Zoom meeting featuring on-site and virtual presentations. The button to access the Zoom meeting appears just before the time block starts.
Chairpersons: Francesca Silverii, Joëlle Nicolas, Jun'ichi Okuno
Hydrological Loading: Measuring and Modeling
14:00–14:05
14:05–14:15
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EGU25-2871
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On-site presentation
Fernando Jaramillo and the Hydrogeodesy group

Increasing climatic and human pressures are changing the world’s water resources and hydrological processes at unprecedented rates. Understanding these changes requires comprehensive monitoring of water resources. Hydrogeodesy, the science that measures the Earth’s solid and aquatic surfaces, gravity field, and their changes over time, delivers a range of novel monitoring tools complementary to traditional hydrological methods. It encompasses geodetic technologies such as Altimetry, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Gravimetry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Beyond quantifying these changes, there is a need to understand how hydrogeodesy can contribute to more ambitious goals dealing with water-related and sustainability sciences. Addressing this need, we combine a meta-analysis of over 3,000 articles to chart the range, trends, and applications of hydrogeodesy with an expert elicitation that systematically assesses the potential to do so. We find a growing body of literature relating to the advancements in hydrogeodetic methods, their accuracy and precision, and their inclusion in hydrological modeling. While some water resources, such as lakes and glaciers, are commonly monitored by these technologies, wetlands or permafrost could benefit from a wider range of applications. The expert elicitation envisages the large potential to help solve the 23 Unsolved Questions of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences and advancing knowledge as guidance towards a safe operating space for humanity. It also highlights how this potential can be maximized by combining several hydrogeodetic technologies, exploiting artificial intelligence, and accurately integrating other Earth science disciplines. We call for a coordinated way forward to broaden the use of hydrogeodesy and exploit its full potential.

How to cite: Jaramillo, F. and the Hydrogeodesy group: Hydrogeodesy can address key hydrological questions and water resources sustainability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2871, 2025.

14:15–14:25
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EGU25-14187
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Grace Carlson, Susanna Werth, and Manoochehr Shirzaei

California commonly experiences multi-year droughts, which are intensified due to groundwater pumping in the Central Valley, a region of extensive farmland relying heavily on irrigation to grow crops. These large water loss signals cause surface deformation and gravity variations measurable from space that have been the focus of numerous hydro-geodetic studies. Studies of surface deformation in the region dominantly either focus on the elastic loading and unloading response of the land surface to fluctuations in water mass, or alternatively, on aquifer system deformation driven by groundwater pumping. Because these two deformation signals are opposite in sign, there is an outstanding challenge to cohesively combine these processes in order to accurately assess changes in water storage at resolutions and uncertainties sufficient for water management applications.

Here, we present a unique joint inversion approach integrating observations of surface deformation from GNSS and InSAR that does not require the separation of elastic loading and poromechanical aquifer deformation. Instead, our approach aims to identify a best-fitting solution consistent with both overlapping processes to simultaneously solve for the groundwater storage and total terrestrial water storage (TWS) loss during the drought years of 2020 and 2021 in California. Our inversion approach is further constrained with large-scale terrestrial water storage anomalies observed by the satellite gravimetry mission GRACE- follow on (GRACE-FO). Results from our inversion show that we can achieve a high-resolution and more realistic estimate of TWS loss within the Central Valley than an inversion of GRACE-FO and GNSS elastic loading displacements provide, alone. Results also reveal a groundwater volume loss of 20.4 ± 2.6 km3 in the semi-confined to confined portion of the Central Valley aquifer-system, which agrees well with a conventional GRACE-FO-derived groundwater loss (27.7 ± 5.3 km3) when considering underlying processes and uncertainties. This work reveals the potential of geodetic observations in hydro-hazards research and shows that by integrating multiple measurement systems, we can isolate storage components, like groundwater, that are notoriously challenging to separate from other dynamics, providing  insights into hydrologic processes and anthropogenic impacts at a regional scale.

How to cite: Carlson, G., Werth, S., and Shirzaei, M.: Measuring drought impacts using a hybrid GNSS, InSAR, and GRACE joint inversion approach over California’s Central Valley, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14187, 2025.

14:25–14:35
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EGU25-19166
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Zachary Young, Hilary Martens, Zachary Hoylman, and W. Payton Gardner

Anthropologically, drought intensity is measured not by how strongly the rain falls over a few days but by how dry the land becomes over a specific period of time. The duration and intensity of this drying period, affects hydrologic pools (i.e. rivers, lakes, and groundwater) uniquely based on the characteristics of their respective drainage basins. Contrarily, drought management techniques currently rely heavily on meteorologically derived drought indices (e.g., the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index), which offer valuable insights into the amount of water entering the system but provide no information about water retention levels. As such, currently only GPS-based drought indices provide direct characterization of hydrologic drought with both high spatial resolution, and daily temporal resolution. To assist in the retention of hydrologic resources, we present an update on the status of the United States GPS-Based Drought Index (US-GDI). Our methodology advances those presented by Young et al, 2024. We leverage the availability of the data provided by the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory, and produce a framework which provides rapid US-GDI hydrologic drought assessment solutions with a latency of ~48 hours. Final solutions are expected within 10-14 days. Solutions for the full study period are calculated daily, with hydrologic load estimates, GDI evaluations between one day and 48 months, and step offsets in the vertical component updated daily. To assess the sensitivity of the US-GDI to hydrologic resources, we present an analysis of the correlation between US-GDI timescales and to stream discharge, surface-reservoir storage/elevations, and groundwater across specific hydrologic units across the United States. To facilitate the distribution of the results, we introduce a webpage which provides direct access to all solutions provided by the US-GDI (including both hydrologic loading estimates, and GDI time scale solution. The US-GDI represents an opportunity to significantly improve hydrologic resource preservation and maintenance during periods of sustained hydrologic drought.

How to cite: Young, Z., Martens, H., Hoylman, Z., and Gardner, W. P.: Daily Hydrologic Drought Assessment Using GPS: Improving Drought Management with the United States GPS-Based Drought Index (US-GDI), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19166, 2025.

14:35–14:45
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EGU25-13419
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Hilary R Martens, Zachary M Young, Donald F Argus, Matthew J Swarr, W Payton Gardner, Nicholas Lau, Adrian A Borsa, Zachary Hoylman, Qian Cao, Anna M Wilson, Ming Pan, Ellen Knappe, F Martin Ralph, Simone Puel, Alexander Berne, Mark Simons, and Yuning Fu

Developing a comprehensive understanding of global water resources – and their responses to extreme events and variations in climate – requires integrating diverse modeling and observational approaches across disciplines, with geodesy playing an increasingly integral role. Geodetic measurements and models, including those tracking solid Earth deformation caused by mass redistribution in the hydrosphere, provide key insights into water-cycle processes and systems. This study focuses on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data from the western United States to examine recurring cycles of severe drought and rapid recovery over the past two decades. Interdisciplinary evidence from hydrology, meteorology, and geodesy suggests that these cycles are strongly associated with variability in the frequency and intensity of seasonal atmospheric rivers (ARs). During Water Year 2023, GNSS data revealed record-breaking water-storage gains in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains and Sacramento-San Joaquin-Tulare (SST) river basins, driven largely by an exceptional series of powerful ARs. In the six-month period between October 2022 and March 2023, water-storage gains in these regions surpassed those of any prior year in the analysis, which began in 2006, with an estimated 80% of the gains delivered by ARs. By early spring 2023, we infer that approximately half of the water-storage gains had infiltrated the subsurface, providing a critical water resource for downstream communities through processes such as mountain block recharge. Our analysis further shows that hydrological drought and recovery, based on GNSS estimates of total water-storage changes, respond more slowly to precipitation patterns than meteorological drought and recovery, highlighting the insulation of subsurface pools from surface fluxes. We find that years with heavy precipitation can help to sustain storage levels into subsequent years with less precipitation. Moreover, as geodetic observational accuracy improves, a deeper understanding of the assumptions, limitations, and opportunities inherent in our models is necessary. To assess the precision of GNSS-informed water-storage estimates, we compare results derived from independent GNSS position estimates and inversion techniques. Additionally, we provide updates on recent progress in developing community-available modeling tools and investigating the effects of 3-D heterogeneities in Earth structure on deformation responses to surface mass loading.

How to cite: Martens, H. R., Young, Z. M., Argus, D. F., Swarr, M. J., Gardner, W. P., Lau, N., Borsa, A. A., Hoylman, Z., Cao, Q., Wilson, A. M., Pan, M., Knappe, E., Ralph, F. M., Puel, S., Berne, A., Simons, M., and Fu, Y.: Geodetic Insights into Water Resources and Drought Dynamics in the Western United States, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13419, 2025.

14:45–14:55
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EGU25-938
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Shubham Rajewar, Akarsh Asoka, Sai Krishnan, Puviarasan Narayanasamy, Ritesh Purohit, Harsh Bhu, and Vineet Gahalaut

The GRACE measurements of the time-variable gravity field and mass change have helped in identifying regions of water reservoir over land, ice, and ocean, as well as in locating areas affected by drought and groundwater over-extraction. Studies indicate depletion in groundwater resources in North West (NW) India due to over-extraction from agricultural activities. The GPS measurements in the region indicate uplift rate varying from 1.5 to 4.2 mm/year caused by groundwater depletion-induced mass change. We observed a significant correspondence between the rainfall pattern, mass change derived from GRACE measurements, GPS measurements derived deformation, and well-level changes. Despite some marginal increase in rainfall in the past 3-4 years, the region is still experiencing over-extraction of groundwater due to increased demand for agriculture water. Although the Delhi Aravalli fold belt's paleo-structure primarily governs earthquakes in and around the Delhi region, we found no correlation between crustal strain rates and seismicity. Specifically, areas with high strain exhibited fewer earthquakes and less seismic energy release. GRACE data shows that prolonged groundwater over-extraction has resulted in significant negative anomalies in Equivalent Water Height (EWH). Although the magnitude of GRACE derived strain is very low, we find a good correlation between the GRACE-derived strain rates and seismicity. Our analysis demonstrates that groundwater over-extraction leads to substantial deformation in this region, which leads to earthquakes, and the observed uplift implies unclamping of faults, which may promote seismic events.

How to cite: Rajewar, S., Asoka, A., Krishnan, S., Narayanasamy, P., Purohit, R., Bhu, H., and Gahalaut, V.: Groundwater depletion in NW India and its response on crustal deformation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-938, 2025.

14:55–15:05
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EGU25-8623
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Anna Klos, Anne Springer, Artur Lenczuk, Christian Mielke, Jan Mikocki, Jürgen Kusche, and Janusz Bogusz

We use more than 5,000 Global Positioning System (GPS) permanent stations whose observations are processed by the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (NGL) and located in Europe to classify them as reliable for hydrogeodetic studies, a so-called hydrogeodetic benchmarks. Benchmarks are defined by investigating whether the GPS-observed daily vertical displacements are positively and significantly correlated with hydrological model, whose Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) estimates are converted into model-predicted daily vertical displacements. Due to the complexity of the hydrospheric phenomenon, we propose that these correlations are considered at three different temporal scales, assumed a-priori as short-term, seasonal and long-term. First, the GPS-observed vertical displacements are decomposed using non-parametric wavelet decomposition and then, we correlate these decomposed displacements with high-resolution nested regional Community Land Model 5.0 (CLM5), which is more reliable than global models and represents the spatial resolution of 12 km. We prove that GPS-observed displacements at benchmark points show high correspondence to the vertical displacements derived by GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment). We then use these benchmarked points and invert the GPS-observed displacements into TWS fields for several European basins. We demonstrate that these TWS estimates exhibit consistent and interpretable spatial patterns and are better correlated at all three temporal scales with external datasets, such as climate indices, than TWS estimates derived from the conventional approach used to date. The research is crucial for future hydrogeodetic analyses that take a step forward towards daily temporal resolution of hydrosphere-related products.

How to cite: Klos, A., Springer, A., Lenczuk, A., Mielke, C., Mikocki, J., Kusche, J., and Bogusz, J.: A dataset of GPS-observed daily displacements for hydrogeodetic studies over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8623, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8623, 2025.

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment: Impacts on Earth's Systems and Sea-Level Dynamics
15:05–15:15
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EGU25-4710
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Danjal Berg, Abbas Khan, and Rebekka Steffen

The Greenland ice sheet has lost significant mass over the past two decades. More than 58 permanent Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations on bedrock, which are part of Greenland’s GNSS Network (GNET), measure the deformation continuously. The solid Earth displacement processes are two-fold: an instantaneous elastic deformation and a slow viscoelastic deformation, which can be attributed to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). We have gained new insight into both vertical and horizontal land movement by removing the elastic deformation with high-resolution mass change grids.

By including mass change from Greenland and Arctic Canada peripheral glaciers, our estimates for the vertical GNSS velocities align with GIA models, though significant regional discrepancies remain. For the horizontal GNSS velocity component, new Euler poles describing the North American plate where fitted, which is the majority of the horizontal observed GNSS velocity. We compared our inferred horizontal GIA deformation with 26 1D GIA models. We discovered a significant inward contraction field in South Greenland, originating from the Laurentide ice sheet that the GIA models cannot capture. A complete North, East, and Up inferred GIA velocity field for Greenland can be used as a constraint for both GIA models and to target stations with abnormal behaviour where mass change estimates should be improved.

How to cite: Berg, D., Khan, A., and Steffen, R.: Solid Earth deformation in Greenland observed by the Greenland’s GNSS Network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4710, 2025.

15:15–15:25
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EGU25-19469
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On-site presentation
Mirko Scheinert, Eric Buchta, Matt King, Terry Wilson, Achraf Koulali, Peter Clarke, Demián Gómez, and Eric Kendrick

For almost three decades, geodetic GNSS measurements have been used to infer bedrock displacement in Antarctica. However, until now Antarctic-wide studies have only been able to make use of a limited number of GNSS stations and have also been limited in time. Within the project GIANT-REGAIN (Geodynamics In ANTarctica based on REprocessing GNSS DAta INitiative), endorsed by the SCAR Expert Group GIANT and the SCAR Scientific Program INSTANT, for the first time geodetic GNSS data have been compiled for as many Antarctic bedrock stations as possible, covering the period from 1995 to 2021. The recordings include permanent and episodic observations at more than 270 sites. In order to provide a consistent and reliable analysis of these data, four processing centres have joined forces to reprocess the data. The background and the most important issues of the reprocessing will be reported. We will discuss the resulting coordinate time series in terms of their reliability and uncertainty, and their usability to infer displacement rates for subsequent analyses in Antarctic geodynamics, especially GIA. Thus, these coordinate time series will allow to investigate the Antarctic bedrock displacement pattern in much more detail than before. Inferring displacement rates will enable us to study deformation processes on different time and spatial scales, governed by the rheological properties of the Earth’s interior. This includes the response of the solid Earth on short time scales due to a weak upper mantle or the variability of the Antarctic ice sheet in the Holocene which may lead to present-day subsidence.

The results of GIANT-REGAIN are discussed in a paper published in Earth System Science Data, and the data products are archived at PANGAEA and, thus, publicly accessible.

How to cite: Scheinert, M., Buchta, E., King, M., Wilson, T., Koulali, A., Clarke, P., Gómez, D., and Kendrick, E.: Inferring consistent coordinate time series from reprocessed GNSS data (GIANT-REGAIN) to probe the solid Earth and its interactions in Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19469, 2025.

15:25–15:35
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EGU25-2530
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Grace Nield, Michael Bentley, Achraf Koulali, Peter Clarke, Matt King, Terry Wilson, and Pippa Whitehouse

Present-day ice-mass changes in Antarctica deform the solid Earth elastically, and this signal needs removing from GPS observations of displacement before they can be used to constrain models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). However, much of West Antarctica is underlain by weak upper mantle, meaning that these short-term fluctuations may also cause a transient or viscous deformation of the Earth. We model the viscoelastic response of the solid Earth to surface mass balance (SMB) variability in the Antarctic Peninsula and find an improved fit to GPS data at most sites compared to elastic only. Viscoelastic modelling constrains upper mantle steady-state viscosity in the northern Peninsula to 5×1017 to 2×1018 Pa s, and >1×1018 Pa s for the mid to southern Peninsula. In the northern Peninsula, removing viscoelastic displacement caused by SMB variability from GPS time series increases estimated uplift rates by up to 3mm/yr compared with using an elastic correction.

How to cite: Nield, G., Bentley, M., Koulali, A., Clarke, P., King, M., Wilson, T., and Whitehouse, P.: Surface Mass Balance Variability causes Viscoelastic Solid Earth Deformation in the Antarctic Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2530, 2025.

15:35–15:45
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EGU25-17315
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Fred Richards, James Hazzard, and Harriet Lau

Mass transfer between the cryosphere and oceans leads to sea-surface height and topography changes whose timescales, amplitudes, and spatial patterns are controlled by mantle viscoelasticity. This ‘glacial isostatic adjustment’ (GIA) can slow or halt retreat of unstable marine-based ice sheets since ice loss induces gravitational sea-surface lowering and bedrock rebound, reducing water depths around ice-sheet margins and lowering their exposure to melting by warm ocean currents. Despite widespread recognition of this solid Earth–ice-sheet feedback, it has often been assumed that Earth’s mantle is too viscous for GIA to have a measurable impact on ice-sheet dynamics over the next few centuries, with many ice-sheet models used in state-of-the-art intercomparison projects assuming either a rigid bed or millennial viscoelastic bedrock deformation timescales. However, GPS bedrock displacement timeseries suggest very low mantle viscosities exist beneath vulnerable regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (~1017–1019 Pa s), implying that bedrock elevations are responding to modern melting on annual-to-decadal timescales, i.e., fast enough to have significant impact on ice-sheet stability over the coming centuries. Interestingly, GPS-inferred viscosities obtained in the same regions, but from bedrock responses to longer-timescale (102 –105-yr) deglacial signals, are at ~10–100 times larger. This result suggests the low effective viscosities obtained for modern signals reflect the operation of transient deformation mechanisms. If confirmed, this transience would have major ramifications for our understanding of future Antarctic ice-sheet stability, since it would introduce a negative feedback whereby mantle viscosities and bedrock uplift rates scale with ice mass loss rates, limiting the speed of subsequent grounding line retreat.

 

Here, we first test whether observed loading-timescale-dependence of GPS-inferred mantle viscosities can be explained using experimentally constrained parameterisations of transient rock deformation across seismic to convective timescales. This analysis is carried out by calibrating these thermomechanical parameterisations for individual seismic tomographic models using both geophysical and experimental observations. Importantly, by adopting a probabilistic inverse method we evaluate parametric uncertainties and propagate them into our estimates of timescale-dependent 3D mantle viscosity. We find that transient and steady-state viscosities predicted by our optimal parameterisations can simultaneously explain the short- and long-timescale GPS signals recorded across the Antarctic Peninsula. Next, we integrate this thermomechanical structure into 1D transient and Maxwell viscoelastic Earth models to quantify the impact of this more complex rheology on rates of Antarctic bedrock uplift and relative sea-level change on deglaciation timescales ranging from years to millenia. Our results show that transient mechanisms have measurable impacts on all submillenial deglaciation timescales but are particularly pronounced over decadal-to-centennial intervals, producing up to ~50% more bedrock uplift and up to ~70% higher maximum uplift rates than steady-state counterparts. We conclude by presenting a thermomechanically self-consistent framework for integrating our calibrated ‘full-spectrum’ rheological parameterisations into coupled GIA–ice-sheet simulations that account for observed transient and 3D viscosity variations. We will present early results from these simulations that will ultimately enable the potential stabilising impact of transient rheology on Antarctic ice-sheet evolution to be quantified under different climatic forcing scenarios, improving projections of future barystatic sea-level change.

How to cite: Richards, F., Hazzard, J., and Lau, H.: Towards a Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of Transient Mantle Rheology on Future Antarctic Ice-Sheet Stability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17315, 2025.

Posters on site: Thu, 1 May, 10:45–12:30 | Hall X1

The posters scheduled for on-site presentation are only visible in the poster hall in Vienna. If authors uploaded their presentation files, these files are linked from the abstracts below.
Display time: Thu, 1 May, 08:30–12:30
Chairpersons: Holger Steffen, Makan Karegar, Mohammad J. Tourian
Hydrological Loading: Measuring and Modeling
X1.83
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EGU25-6683
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ECS
Daniele Guidi, Francesca Silverii, Marco Polcari, and Eleonora Rivalta

Insights into hydrologically-induced deformations of the Earth surface, and particularly of aquifers, are crucial for a better understanding of water cycle dynamics and its interaction with solid earth processes and to provide useful information for the sustainable management of water resources. The high spatio-temporal resolution and millimeter/centimeter-scale accuracy of surface deformation data from satellite geodesy techniques such as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) make it possible to measure and identify signals related to hydrological forcing. Elastic loading response has been primarily investigated using GNSS surface displacement to infer TWS variation at regional scales. The higher spatial resolution of InSAR measurements has made it possible to identify surface deformation patterns associated with the groundwater storage (GWS) variation of local aquifer systems.

In this work we leveraged Sentinel-1A Multi-Temporal InSAR observations from the European Ground Motion Service (EGMS) to analyse the deformation occurring in an area in North-Western Italy. This region hosts the Po valley, a large alluvial plain in northern Italy characterized by abundance of both surface and groundwater bodies, which are extensively exploited for farming and industrial activities. Recently, changing climatic conditions have imposed additional stress on water resources, culminating into a severe drought in 2022. GNSS data revealed an elastic response to the TWS variation associated to this drought at entire Po basin scale (Pintori & Serpelloni 2023).

We analysed InSAR time series (2018-2022) focusing on an area spanning from the low Lombardian plain to the foothills of the Alps, encompassing terrain that transitions from fine alluvial deposits in the south to coarser fan and glacial deposits in the north and including some main cities and two of the largest Italian lakes. We applied decomposition and clustering techniques in order to extract the signals contributing to the observed deformation and their spatio-temporal features. To identify the possible physical drivers, we compared our results with publicly available precipitation, rivers discharge and water head table piezometric data, and hydro-geological information. We found that different areas respond with different mechanical behaviours to the same forcing. We highlighted localized areas on the piedmont belt which are mainly characterized by a transient multiyear signal of up to 15 mm which results to be strongly correlated with precipitation, uplifting in wet periods and subsiding during drought periods. This is consistent with a poroelastic response which could be attributed to the higher localized concentration of coarse-grained material like gravel and sand in the piedmont belt. We applied models of poroelastic deformation, including, where available, hydraulic head data, to relate the identified poroelastic surface deformation to GWS variation, and characterize the aquifers properties. Outside these areas, the multiyear deformation pattern has a lower amplitude (up to 2mm) and is anticorrelated in time with precipitation, consistently with an elastic loading response. We computed the elastic deformation due to the estimated TWS variation from Pintori & Serpelloni (2023) and found agreement in order of magnitude and temporal trends with InSAR data.

How to cite: Guidi, D., Silverii, F., Polcari, M., and Rivalta, E.: InSAR for the characterization of climate-related processes in Northwest Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6683, 2025.

X1.84
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EGU25-4691
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ECS
Zhiqiang Wen, Peyman Saemian, Wenke Sun, and Mohammad J. Tourian

Global warming and its associated impacts on sea level rise pose increasing risks to coastal regions. However, regional sea level changes are influenced by local factors, including land subsidence and localized climatic phenomena, which can exhibit significant variations that exceed the global average. As the world's largest inland sea, the Black Sea water level changes are driven not only by global climate processes but also significantly influenced by river runoff, with almost one-third of the entire land area of continental Europe draining into it, making it a critical factor in sea level variations. This study investigates long-term and seasonal variations in Black Sea water level and basin runoff by integrating satellite altimetry data with in situ hydrological observations, spanning 1993-2024. The results indicate a long-term sea level rise of 3.7 ± 0.38 mm/year for the Black Sea, with the winter season showing a notably higher trend of 3.89 ± 0.38 mm/year compared to other seasons. By investigating the relative contributions of steric (thermal expansion and salinity changes) and mass-related sea level changes, corrected for surface loading deformation, this study provides insights into the mechanisms driving regional sea level variability and the broader hydrological responses of Black Sea surrounding basins.

Keywords: the Black Sea; steric sea level rise; river discharge; Altimetry; loading deformation

How to cite: Wen, Z., Saemian, P., Sun, W., and Tourian, M. J.: Assessing Long-Term and Seasonal Drivers of Black Sea Level Rise: Runoff and Loading Deformation (1993–2024), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4691, 2025.

X1.85
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EGU25-10069
Joëlle Nicolas, Alicia Tafflet, Jean-Paul Boy, Agnès Baltzer, and Jérôme Verdun

Global warming and other climate change influences are leading to major changes in the global hydrological cycle. The response of the Solid Earth to water mass transfers causes crustal deformations and gravity field temporal variations that can be monitored by space geodesy. It is challenging to identify the climate change signature contained in the time series and to separate the different contributions from various spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we use more than 20 years of GNSS and GRACE time series to analyse hydrological loading signal in two different areas that are highly sensitive to climate change. The Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic is one of the fastest warming locations in the world. We use seasonal analysis and comparison with satellite altimetry and in-situ datasets to distinguish current ice melting from the solid Earth’s response to past events (GIA, LIA). South America and the Amazon basin, home to some of the world’s largest rivers, have recently experienced severe drought and extreme floods. The hydrological loading shows huge annual variations superimposed on interannual variations linked to extreme events. It is therefore essential to use high-performance analysis methods to separate the part of the observed signals associated with climate change from the well-known seasonal trends. To assess their reliability and interpretation, the results are discussed in relation to complementary datasets and models.

How to cite: Nicolas, J., Tafflet, A., Boy, J.-P., Baltzer, A., and Verdun, J.: Solid Earth response to climate change in Svalbard and South America using geodetic observations of hydrological loading, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10069, 2025.

X1.86
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EGU25-17461
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ECS
Anna Winter, Marvin Reich, Patricio Yeste, Laura Jensen, Ezequiel D. Antokoletz, Andreas Güntner, and Hartmut Wziontek

Hydrological monitoring methods usually observe water storage changes in specific depths or for a limited number of storage compartments only and are often representative for a small volume only. In contrast, gravity measurements are sensitive to mass changes as a spatially integrated signal. This makes them a valuable complementary tool for monitoring total water storage changes. The hydrological contribution to the time-variable gravimetric signal often plays a major role for the overall signal dynamics. Nevertheless, there is still a lack of understanding the influence of the local hydrological dynamics at many terrestrial gravity stations. Thus, advancing the hydrological corrections on gravity signals is highly valuable for improving the interpretation of gravity measurements with respect to other processes of interest, e.g., geodynamic, atmospheric or ocean-loading effects.

In this case study, we consider the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell (GOW), located in the river Regen catchment in a low mountain range in East Bavaria, Germany. Here, long-term stable records of superconducting gravimeters (SGs) are available at three different points at the observatory within a distance of about 200 meters. The time series are corrected for tidal, atmospheric and other non-hydrological effects as accurate as possible. Further, an extensive hydrological sensor network has been operated at GOW for more than a decade and compared with the gravimetric observations in previous studies.

We compare different hydrological corrections on the gravity time series, based on two regional and one local hydrology model as well as on in-situ data of soil moisture sensor profiles in the direct vicinity of the gravimeters. For the regional models we use the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ), implemented for the river Regen catchment with a spatial and temporal resolution of one kilometer and one day, respectively, and OS LISFLOOD (European Commission Joint Research Center) for the same catchment area and with 0.05° and one day spatial and temporal resolution, respectively. Both models are forced with national and global meteorological data sets. As a local model, we use a HYDRUS 1D (J. Simunek, et al., 2008) setup with finer resolved vertical layers and forcing from in-situ meteorological observations. Applying the different models to all three SG records provides insights on the efficiency of a small-scale versus a large-scale approach for hydrological corrections in view of the marked subsurface complexity and heterogeneity at GOW.

How to cite: Winter, A., Reich, M., Yeste, P., Jensen, L., Antokoletz, E. D., Güntner, A., and Wziontek, H.: Comparing hydrological models of different resolution to multiple high-precision terrestrial gravity time series at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17461, 2025.

X1.87
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EGU25-18131
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ECS
Majid Abbaszadeh and Tonie van Dam

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-on (GFO) gravity observations have significantly improved models of the terrestrial water cycle globally. However, GRACE-assimilated models of terrestrial water storage still show differences amongst the models, and studies to determine their ability to predict the state of terrestrial water storage in different regions are ongoing. This paper uses Global Positioning System (GPS) data to assess two global GRACE-assimilated datasets: GLWS2.0 and CLSM-DA. From 2004 to 2019, the mean annual amplitude of water thickness of these datasets differs by more than 25 mm over 40% of the land area. Additionally, the models predict the timing of maximum water storage with difference in phase of 30-days across 50% of their domain. We compare the modeled hydrological loading vertical displacements predicted from these models with GPS uplift data as a measure of the model quality. We cluster 5,983 global GPS stations, each with at least three years of daily data, based on river basin borders. This segmentation allows for better detection of how hydrological conditions, e.g. precipitation patterns, soil characteristics, etc., and model calibration (applied in each river basin) influence the model-GPS agreement.    

Our comparison demonstrates that compared to GLWS2.0, CLSM-DA generally agrees better with GPS and GRACE data across more river basins. We find that the 100-300 mm larger annual water variation of CLSM-DA to GLWS2.0 accounts for CLSM-DA’s better agreement with GPS in Africa, Southeast Asia, and some parts of South America. For regions like the Western United States and Eastern Europe, where the two models propose a similar range of annual water variation, the 30-60 days phase delay of CLSM-DA improves its alignment with GPS. Our findings highlight the need for regional improvement in these models, particularly in areas where they significantly deviate from GPS observations of the terrestrial water variation.

How to cite: Abbaszadeh, M. and van Dam, T.: Assessment of two GRACE-assimilated terrestrial water storage datasets across 44 river basins using GPS observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18131, 2025.

X1.88
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EGU25-4027
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ECS
Hai Zhu, Kejie Chen, Mingjia Li, Shunqiang Hu, Guoqing Zhang, Xingxing Kuang, Wenfeng Cui, and Shengpeng Zhang

While geodetic observations are now commonly used to retrieve terrestrial water storage changes at regional or watershed scales, their application at the local scale, such as individual lakes, remains limited due to spatial resolution constraints and the lack of onsite observations, especially in remote areas. This study investigated the deformation field and water storage changes at Qinghai Lake, China from January 2016 to December 2022 by integrating data from five Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images. We observed that the area surrounding Qinghai Lake exhibited an overall subsidence trend with rates ranging from -2.89 to -0.30 mm/yr between January 2016 and August 2019. However, from September 2019 to December 2022, this trend reversed to an uplift with rates ranging from 2.20 to 4.89 mm/yr. This shift in deformation direction is largely attributed to changed precipitation influenced by large-scale atmospheric circulation. Furthermore, independent component (IC) analysis of the deformation field shows that the first two ICs accounted for 77.36% and 16.67% of the data variance, representing loading signals due to regional background hydrological loading and lake water storage gains, respectively. We then reconstructed the loading deformation associated with lake dynamics and inverted the lake water storage changes, which demonstrated high consistency (r=0.86) with lake volume changes estimated from satellite water level measurements, indicating that increases in lake surface water constitute a significant portion of the water storage increases.

How to cite: Zhu, H., Chen, K., Li, M., Hu, S., Zhang, G., Kuang, X., Cui, W., and Zhang, S.: Terrestrial water storage changes of Qinghai Lake on the Tibetan Plateau from joint inversion of GNSS and InSAR data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4027, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4027, 2025.

X1.89
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EGU25-7627
Vagner Ferreira

Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) is a vital component of the Earth's hydrological and climate systems, influencing water resource management and ecosystem dynamics. However, current TWS estimation techniques, such as those derived from global spherical harmonics, suffer from low spatial and temporal resolutions, limiting their application for regional studies. To address this issue, this study proposes a framework for regional TWS estimation based on Spherical Cap Harmonic Analysis (SCHA) applied to GNSS-derived vertical crustal displacements. The proposed methodology employs the remove-restore strategy to isolate the hydrological load within the cap. First, mass redistribution signals from outside the cap are removed using GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data. The GNSS-derived residual vertical displacements are then expanded into SCHA coefficients, incorporating modified load Love numbers that account for the spherical cap geometry. The modified load Love numbers ensure a physically consistent representation of the Earth's elastic response within the cap boundary. The estimated coefficients (residual) are used to recover residual TWS variations, after which the removed external contributions are restored. The proposed approach provides enhanced spatial resolution and accuracy compared to traditional global spherical harmonics by tailoring the analysis to the geometry of a spherical cap.

Both simulated and observed GNSS data from a network of stations across Brazil, covering diverse hydrological regimes—from the Amazon Basin to the semi-arid Northeast—are analyzed to validate this approach. The results reveal spatial and temporal patterns of TWS changes, demonstrating agreement with independent GRACE estimates and hydrological models. These findings emphasize the ability of SCHA-based regional analysis to capture local-scale hydrological processes with higher precision than global methods. Furthermore, this study highlights the potential of SCHA to complement GRACE datasets in regions with dense GNSS observational coverage and advances geodetic techniques for hydrological monitoring.

How to cite: Ferreira, V.: Regional Terrestrial Water Storage Recovery Using Spherical Cap Harmonics from GNSS-Derived Vertical Displacements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7627, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7627, 2025.

X1.90
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EGU25-6896
Behshid Khodaei, Hossein Hashemi, and Mazda Kompanizare

Aquifer classification plays a pivotal role in understanding groundwater dynamics and informing sustainable water resource management, especially in regions under significant stress from over-extraction. This study presents a novel remote sensing-based methodology for classifying aquifers represented by monitoring wells within the study area. The approach integrates stress-strain analysis, incorporating deformation data derived from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and groundwater head measurements from monitoring wells, utilizing advanced deep-learning techniques. Groundwater data from piezometric wells are utilized to create image-based representations of hysteresis loops derived from stress-strain diagrams, capturing aquifer deformation under varying drawdown and recovery cycles. A convolutional neural network is applied to extract high-dimensional features characterizing aquifer response dynamics. Principal component analysis is then employed to reduce dimensionality, highlighting the most significant features driving classification. Finally, unsupervised clustering methods are used to group piezometric wells, revealing distinct aquifer types and deformation patterns. The proposed methodology is tested in three hydrologically and geologically diverse regions of Iran: Shabestar, Urmia, and Neyshabur Plains. In the Shabestar and Urmia Plains, located near the hypersaline Lake Urmia, intensive groundwater extraction has severely strained local hydrological and ecological systems, contributing to declining lake levels and increased stress on water resources. Similarly, in the Neyshabur Plain in northeastern Iran, characterized by its arid to semi-arid environment and intricate geological features, excessive groundwater use has led to significant aquifer depletion and land subsidence. The proposed approach effectively identifies different aquifer types, analyzes the balance between elastic and inelastic deformation, and determines aquifer responses to varying degrees of groundwater extraction. By integrating InSAR-based deformation monitoring of ground surface with advanced deep learning techniques, the study provides a comprehensive framework for aquifer system characterization. The findings are particularly valuable for regions with scarce geological and hydrological data, offering insights to guide sustainable groundwater management practices, mitigate environmental degradation, and support effective decision-making. 

How to cite: Khodaei, B., Hashemi, H., and Kompanizare, M.: A Novel Approach to Aquifer Classification Using Hysteresis Loop Analysis and Deep Learning for Sustainable Groundwater Management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6896, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6896, 2025.

X1.91
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EGU25-2615
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ECS
Pritom Sarma, Carolina Hurtado-Pulido, Einat Aharonov, Renaud Toussaint, Stanislav Parez, Eduardo Arzabala, and Cynthia Ebinger

Coastal Louisiana experiences ground subsidence, exacerbating flooding and land loss from sea level rise. Natural and anthropogenic causes induce spatially and temporally varying subsidence in this sector of the Gulf of Mexico passive margin. The geodetic displacements in the Baton Rouge area over the period of 2018-2024 show cyclic seasonal displacement superposed on long-term subsidence, implying a small seasonal loading component. We assert that the seasonal fluctuations are controlled by seasonal changes in Mississippi River discharge that infiltrate sandstone aquifers separated by shales.   

Here we theoretically examine a simple radial analytical formulation of poroelastic dilation and compaction responses induced by seasonal fluctuation in groundwater levels assuming a hydrostatic response, using Darcy’ law. Due to the semi-confined nature of the aquifer, we assume a hydrostatic infiltration response, yet at the same time we assume a confined poroelastic response of the aquifer. Using a reasonable range of aquifer specific storage (Kuang et al., 2020), the predicted seasonal dilation and compaction agrees with the geodetic data on both spatial and temporal scales, exhibiting ground deformation associated with both long term groundwater extraction or recharge and seasonal groundwater fluctuation. We hence argue that the poroelasticity of aquifers can explain seasonal and long term signals in geodetic observations in Southern Louisiana without requiring additional processes like fault creep or salt movement.

How to cite: Sarma, P., Hurtado-Pulido, C., Aharonov, E., Toussaint, R., Parez, S., Arzabala, E., and Ebinger, C.: Poro-elastic modulation of aquifers explain seasonal and decadal geodetic signals in Southern Louisiana., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2615, 2025.

X1.92
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EGU25-10956
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ECS
Lan Zhang, Makan Karegar, and Jürgen Kusche

The Earth's surface undergoes deformations due to temporal variations in the distribution of atmospheric, hydrological and oceanic mass loads on the lithosphere. These deformations can be observed using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data where seasonal variations are particularly prominent in GNSS height time series.

While continental-scale water mass redistributions can be captured by Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment/Follow On (GRACE/FO) or global hydrological models, surface water storage changes e.g. those caused by rivers and lakes cannot be resolved. However, GNSS timeseries may contain these small-scale surface water loading signals especially when located close to water bodies. Correctly representing such close-range, subgrid-scale loading signals is important for interpreting GNSS displacements, in particular when the goal is validating hydrological models.

In this study, we compiled daily time series from 326 GNSS stations jointly with water level observations along the Rhine river in the the Eifel area, North West Europe. The GNSS time series underwent careful post-processing including offset corrections and outlier removal. We identified a statistical relationship between the annual GNSS amplitudes and the stations' distance from the Rhine River. After applying blind source separation techniques, including Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and hydrological model-based corrections (using the Community Land Model version 5, CLM5, at daily resolution) to isolate large-scale common mode signals from the GNSS observations, the correlation between the residual GNSS signals and Rhine river level variations improved. We further inverted for regional elastic Earth parameters based on a half-space infinite elastic Earth model to estimate the surface water induced vertical displacements. The results demonstrated that surface water loading could account for a considerable fraction of the vertical displacement observed at GNSS stations near the riverbanks on daily to monthly timescales.

How to cite: Zhang, L., Karegar, M., and Kusche, J.: GNSS observations of the surface water storage-induced displacements in the Eifel area, NW Europe: the influence of the Rhine river, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10956, 2025.

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment: Impacts on Earth's Systems and Sea-Level Dynamics
X1.93
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EGU25-2238
Mohammad Bagherbandi, Lars E. Sjöberg, Ismael Foroughi, and Mahmoud Abd El-Gelil

Precise gravity measurements have been consistently collected in Fennoscandia and Canada since the 1960s and 1990s, respectively, using relative gravimeters and later employing absolute gravimeters (e.g., FG5 and A10 absolute gravimeters) to establish gravity reference system and study temporal changes in gravity, e.g. associated with ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). In this study, we utilized monthly data from GRACE and GRACE Follow-on, spanning 2003 to 2023, to estimate temporal variations in surface gravity changes, their relationship with land uplift rates, and to determine the upper mantle density associated with viscous mass flow in the mantle. The main focus of this paper is Canada; however, the results will be compared with our previous studies in Fennoscandia. We used the ICE-6G_D land uplift model for Canada and the NKG2016LU regional land uplift model for Fennoscandia for this purpose. The satellite gravimetry results were compared with terrestrial absolute gravity observations collected at 43 stations across Canada and Fennoscandia, respectively.

The results derived from GRACE and GRACE Follow-on data show that the ratio between surface gravity and height changes is −0.152 ± 0.010 μGal/mm in Canada and −0.156 ± 0.016 μGal/mm in Fennoscandia aligning closely with findings from terrestrial gravity observations. These values correspond to upper mantle densities of approximately 3736 ± 239 kg/m³ and 3641 ± 382 kg/m³ in Canada and Fennoscandia, respectively. In addition, the results were combined with terrestrial absolute gravimetry results. These findings highlight the importance of satellite gravimetry data and are crucial for GIA modeling and the Earth’s interior parameters.

How to cite: Bagherbandi, M., Sjöberg, L. E., Foroughi, I., and Abd El-Gelil, M.: Investigating Surface Gravity and Height Variations due to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment: Insights from GRACE and GRACE-FO Data in Fennoscandia and Canada, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2238, 2025.

X1.94
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EGU25-8675
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ECS
Konstanze Haubner, Natalya Gomez, Erica Lucas, Charlotte Rahlves, Kristin Richter, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, and Andreas Born

The Greenland ice sheet is melting at an increasing rate and is predicted to have a large contribution to sea level change by 2100. Future climate over Greenland, which determines the ice sheet’s surface melt and marine-terminating glacier retreat, represents a major source of uncertainty for Greenland ice sheet evolution (ISMIP6). In this study, we explore the Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea level change from 1960 to 2100 and quantify how uncertainties in projected climate change and Earth rheological structure shape global and local sea level changes and their spatio-temporal variability.

Ice load history is provided by simulations following the ISMIP6 protocol. To project regional sea level changes, we employ two different gravitationally self-consistent sea level models. We use the pseudo-spectral sea level model described in Gomez et al. (2010). To test the sensitivity of projections to surface resolution and Earth structure, the experiments are repeated with the finite volume sea level model SEAKON (Latychev 2005) that includes 3D variations in Earth structure and grid refinement capabilities to reach ~5 km surface resolution over Greenland.

Results highlight the spatial variability of projected sea level for communities along the Greenlandic coastline, and contrast local changes to farfield sea level rise for Pacific Islands. With a spread of -1.00m to -2.96m sea level change by 2100 around Ilulissat, West Greenland, our results are up to three times the value provided by the NASA IPCC sea level tool (-0.8m) and emphasize the need for more studies addressing local sea level changes.

How to cite: Haubner, K., Gomez, N., Lucas, E., Rahlves, C., Richter, K., Nisancioglu, K. H., and Born, A.: Local sea level changes due to Greenland ice sheet mass changes from 1970 to 2100, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8675, 2025.

X1.95
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EGU25-14180
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ECS
Alexis Lepipas, Parviz Ajourlou, Glenn Milne, Lev Tarasov, and Sarah Woodroffe

Understanding the past evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is important for accurately simulating its future behavior and thus its contribution to global mean sea level rise. Data and models related to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) have provided critical constraints on past GrIS evolution. These models are necessary to interpret a variety of data, including past sea-level changes and geodetic observations of current land motion and gravity changes. In all studies to date, paleo sea level data from southern Greenland have presented the greatest challenge to GIA models. Poor data-model fits in this region have led to the hypothesis of glacially-induced faulting  during periods of rapid ice loss (with associated tsunami hazard).

In this study, we seek to determine if quality fits to the southern Greenland relative sea level (RSL) data can be obtained by improving the GIA model and exploring the parameter space more fully than past efforts. Specifically, we consider two recent advancements in model development: new 3-D models of earth viscosity structure based on the joint inversion of regional geophysical datasets, and GrIS reconstructions output from a leading glacial systems model. The improved 3-D earth models result in a larger RSL fall compared to past 1-D earth modelling and so that amplitude of the measured signal can be accurately simulated at most sites in southern Greenland. However, the rate and timing of RSL fall are generally too late and too slow to match many of the mid-Holocene sea-level index points. We seek to improve this aspect of the model fits by varying the ice history model. A two-step approach is used: (1) manually adjust the timing and rate of ice retreat in a chosen model to identify if plausible variations in these aspects can capture RSL data, and (2) assuming (1) is satisfied, seek to produce a glaciologically consistent ice history by varying parameters within the glacial systems model (e.g., climate forcing). In this presentation, we will provide an update on the status of our sensitivity analysis and the implications for glacially-induced faulting and the ice sheet response to the Younger Dryas cold interval.

How to cite: Lepipas, A., Ajourlou, P., Milne, G., Tarasov, L., and Woodroffe, S.: Modelling sea-level reconstructions from southern Greenland: Implications for glacially-induced faulting and the response of the ice sheet to the Younger Dryas cold interval, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14180, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14180, 2025.

X1.96
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EGU25-6751
Mehmet Korhan Erturaç, Eren Şahiner, Raif Kandemir, Hilal Okur, İrem Salman, Altuğ Hasözbek, Mehmet Salim Öncel, Jintang Qin, and Naki Akçar

The Antarctic Peninsula is uplifting rapidly due to the isostatic response to ice sheet unloading since the Holocene. Understanding the timing and rate of this process is crucial for addressing several key research questions: (1) exploring the elastic interactions between the mantle and lithosphere to improve Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models, (2) assessing the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to Holocene global sea level rise, and (3) investigating the modern response of Antarctic ice sheets to climate change, helping to identify high-impact research areas for polar science.
We focus on stepped coastal terrace staircases formed at the Horseshoe Island, Marguerite Bay, west Antarctic Peninsula. We used low altitude UAS aided SfM mapping to measure the horizontal and vertical geometry of stepped terraces and deployed absolute dating methods (luminescence and radiocarbon) to establish their formation timelines for the east (Gaul Cove, #6 dates), north (Sally Cove, #2) and west (Lystad Bay, #2) of the island.  
The field observations and achieved data explained the formation mechanisms and evolutionary steps of the terraces and pinpoint (1) the timing of deglaciation of the Island, (2) reconstruct a RSL curve for the Holocene and (3) variations in temporal and spatial vertical uplift rates. Our reconstructed RSL(s) fit the geometry of model curves proposed by Peltier (2004) and Whitehouse (2018) . However, there is an apparent discrepancy between our results and published estimations from coastal record of Antarctic Peninsula. This raises questions on the accuracy of dating or interpretation of the results for studies on stepped-coastal terraces. This presentation aims to represent analytical data to discuss these critical issues.
This study was carried under the auspices of Presidency of The Republic of Turkey, supported by the Ministry of Industry and Technology, and coordinated by TUBITAK MAM Polar Research Institute within the TAE-VIII expedition and supported by TUBITAK 122G261 grant.

How to cite: Erturaç, M. K., Şahiner, E., Kandemir, R., Okur, H., Salman, İ., Hasözbek, A., Öncel, M. S., Qin, J., and Akçar, N.: Timing of glacier retreat and spatio-temporal variations in the vertical deformation rate of the Horseshoe Island, Marguarite Bay, west Antarctic Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6751, 2025.

X1.97
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EGU25-1903
Jun'ichi Okuno and Yoshiya Irie

Understanding the behaviour of polar ice sheets during past warm intervals provides critical constraints on their potential response to future warming scenarios. The Last Interglacial (LIG, ~125 ka) is a particularly valuable analogue, characterised by temperatures around 1-2°C above pre-industrial levels and global mean sea level 6-9 m higher than today. This study presents a comprehensive analysis integrating relative sea level (RSL) observations with numerical modelling to reconstruct ice volume fluctuations during this key interval.

A fundamental challenge in reconstructing past ice volumes from RSL records lies in deconvolving the spatially heterogeneous solid Earth deformation signals associated with Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) from the eustatic component. To address this, we have developed and implemented a high-resolution numerical model that explicitly accounts for GIA effects during the LIG. The integration of this model with a spatially extensive database of well-dated RSL indicators enables robust constraints on polar ice sheet volume changes.

This study utilises a GIA model, incorporating rotational effects, in order to predict variations in both space and time with respect to RSL during the LIG. The aim of this study is to evaluate the dependence of these predictions on penultimate glacial maximum ice geometries, by conducting a comparison with global RSL observations. The conclusions of this study serve to further the understanding of ice sheet response to warming, and thus inform future projections of sea level.

How to cite: Okuno, J. and Irie, Y.: Constraining Last Interglacial ice sheet volumes through GIA-corrected sea-level reconstructions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1903, 2025.

X1.98
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EGU25-11444
Rebekka Steffen, Holger Steffen, Pingping Huang, and Patrick Wu

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models provide estimates of velocity, gravity, stress, and sea-level change based on ice-loading scenarios from past glaciations. These models require extensive input, including ice histories and a variety of Earth model parameters that describe the 3D structure and rheology. Different assumptions can be made regarding material parameters, particularly in terms of compressibility, which is described by the Poisson’s ratio. Incompressible materials (Poisson’s ratio equal to 0.5) do not change volume under deformation. However, seismological observations indicate that the Poisson’s ratio in the lithosphere and mantle deviates from 0.5, typically being much smaller, which reflects the presence of compressible materials. Consequently, GIA models must account for compressibility in their material parameters as well as in the solved equations. Despite this, some GIA model codes consider only incompressible materials.

Here, we will show the effect of compressible versus incompressible Earth models on changes in sea level, velocity, gravity, and stress using a newly developed compressible finite-element code. The new GIA model code incorporates the sea-level equation with moving coastlines and rotational feedback, accounts for both grounded and floating ice, removes rigid-body rotation, and calculates deformation in the centre-of-mass frame. Importantly, this global-scale analysis, using the new code, is the first to explore how glacially induced stresses obtained from a spherical GIA model are affected by assumptions about compressibility.

How to cite: Steffen, R., Steffen, H., Huang, P., and Wu, P.: Compressible vs. incompressible in glacial isostatic adjustment models: Does it matter?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11444, 2025.

Additional speakers

  • Matthias O. Willen, TU Dresden, Germany
  • Caroline van Calcar, Technical University of Delft, Netherlands