AS1.38 | Mountain Weather and Climate
Orals |
Thu, 08:30
Thu, 14:00
EDI
Mountain Weather and Climate
Co-organized by CL3.1/CR7
Convener: Sven Kotlarski | Co-conveners: Walter Immerzeel, Stefano Serafin, Carolina Adler, Maria Vittoria Guarino
Orals
| Thu, 01 May, 08:30–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room 1.85/86
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 01 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Thu, 01 May, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Thu, 08:30
Thu, 14:00

Orals: Thu, 1 May | Room 1.85/86

Chairpersons: Stefano Serafin, Sven Kotlarski, Walter Immerzeel
08:30–08:35
The TEAMx research programme
08:35–09:05
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EGU25-5859
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solicited
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Manuela Lehner, Mathias W. Rotach, Ivana Stiperski, Lena Pfister, Alexander Gohm, Christophe Brun, Jutta Vüllers, Jan Cermak, Andrew Orr, Ian Renfrew, Helen F. Dacre, and Charles Chemel

TEAMx (multi-scale transport and exchange processes in the atmosphere over mountains – programme and experiment) is an international research program that aims at improving our understanding of exchange processes over complex terrain and at evaluating and improving the representation of these processes in numerical weather and climate prediction models. As part of TEAMx, a one-year long field campaign, the TEAMx Observational Campaign (TOC), started in September 2024, with dedicated observations being conducted in four target areas aligned in an approximate north-south cross section through the European Alps. In addition to long-term monitoring during the TOC, shorter experiments with a high density of instrumentation target processes under different atmospheric conditions and at a range of spatial scales from turbulence to cross-Alpine transport during two extended observational periods.

The first of these two extended observational periods took place between January and February 2025, with experiments focusing on the Inn Valley, Austria, and the Wipp Valley, Italy. The measurements were designed to observe (i) the three-dimensional structure of the mountain boundary layer, including its turbulence characteristics; (ii) the mean and turbulent structure of katabatic winds over a steep snow-covered slope and its response to larger-scale flows; (iii) the three-dimensional structure of mountain waves; and (iv) the life cycle of low-level stratiform clouds forming in the valley atmosphere. To this purpose, measurements were conducted with a suite of instruments, including research aircraft, radiosoundings, remote-sensing wind and temperature profilers, tethered balloons, and a network of turbulence towers.

This presentation will give a brief overview of TEAMx and highlight some of the very first findings from the experiments conducted during the winter campaign.

How to cite: Lehner, M., Rotach, M. W., Stiperski, I., Pfister, L., Gohm, A., Brun, C., Vüllers, J., Cermak, J., Orr, A., Renfrew, I., Dacre, H. F., and Chemel, C.: The TEAMx Observational Campaign – First findings from the winter campaign, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5859, 2025.

09:05–09:15
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EGU25-13871
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On-site presentation
Neil Hindley, Andrew Orr, Corwin Wright, Andrew Ross, and Philip Rosenberg

The TEAMx programme is a coordinated international research programme focusing on improving our understanding of exchange processes in the atmosphere over mountains and evaluating their representation in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models. TEAMx features several observational and modelling strategies conducted by nationally funded projects centred on the European Alps, including 6-week extended observational periods (EOPs) in both summer and winter 2025. In this presentation, we present the first results from the UK-funded TEAMx-FLOW project, which focuses on the representation of wintertime orographic drag from mountain waves across spatial scales (including sub-km) in the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) and its evaluation against TEAMx observations. Here we present analysis of the first of these observations, an intensive radiosonde balloon campaign launched throughout January-March 2025 conducted by the UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS). The NCAS campaign featured 6-hourly operational launches, complemented with 3-hourly intensive launch periods during mountain wave events and also simultaneous launches of offset pairs of radiosondes. We analyse and quantify mountain waves and their momentum transport in these measurements, including using cross-spectral analysis of the offset pairs to obtain scale separation of observed mountain waves, a process not routinely applied to balloon soundings before. We also explore observations of partial wave breakdown in horizontally sheared flow, a process highly challenging to represent in models. With these new observations, we outline how the representation of mountain waves across multiple spatial scales in the UM and other NWP models can be evaluated and improved to achieve ever more accurate sub-km modelling, leading to improved predictions of mountain weather and climate in next-generation models.

How to cite: Hindley, N., Orr, A., Wright, C., Ross, A., and Rosenberg, P.: First Results From The TEAMx-FLOW Project: Wintertime Radiosonde Observations And Numerical Modelling Of Mountain Waves Over The Tyrolean Alps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13871, 2025.

Mountain weather
09:15–09:25
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EGU25-4362
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On-site presentation
Francois Lott, Anton Beljaars, and Bruno Deremble

Parameterizations of subgrid scale mountains are commonly used in large scale numerical weather prediction and climate models. They try to represent quite separate processes: the enhancement of the turbulent drag by orography, gravity waves and low level flow blocking. Among the gravity waves some schemes eventually separate between the upward propagating waves and the trapped lee waves.  Using a recent theoretical methodology that addresses the interaction of stratified boundary layers with mountains, a theory that handles the transition from neutral to stratified dynamics and trapped waves, we propose a formalism that can include all these effects.  As in most parameterizations it separates the flow between a linear part and a blocked part.  Here  the linear part handles enhanced turbulent drag in the neutral case and gravity waves in the stratified case, trapped lee waves in the transition. In this presentation we evaluate the mountain drag associated to all these processes as well as the fraction of the drag that stays within the boundary layer instead of being radiated in the far field.  We also try to  evaluate the blocked part by combining the sheltering effects that dominate when stratification is small and the blocking effects that dominate when stratification is large.

How to cite: Lott, F., Beljaars, A., and Deremble, B.: Rationale for a subgrid scale orography parameterization that includes turbulent form drag, gravity wave drag and low level flow blocking, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4362, 2025.

09:25–09:35
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EGU25-6939
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Hette G. Houtman, Miguel A.C. Teixeira, Suzanne L. Gray, Simon Vosper, Peter Sheridan, and Annelize van Niekerk

Although various lee wave trapping mechanisms have been studied theoretically since Lyra (1940), not much is known about the relative occurrence of these trapping mechanisms in the real world. For this purpose, vertical atmospheric profiles associated with trapped lee waves are clustered here using self-organising maps.

Because in-situ observations of trapped lee waves are scarce, these vertical profiles are extracted from the Met Office’s convective-scale UKV model (which encompasses the UK and Ireland). To demonstrate that this model accurately represents the conditions relevant to trapped lee wave generation, the wavelength and orientation of trapped lee waves visible in satellite imagery are compared to those in the model. The model is found to reproduce these observed characteristics well.

Subsequently, we use the trapped lee wave identification model developed by Coney et al. (2023) and a linear Taylor-Goldstein equation solver to determine which vertical profiles are associated with trapped lee wave activity. We confirm that high low-level wind speeds are a necessary condition for the generation of trapped lee waves of substantial amplitude. We find that wind speeds increasing with height contribute to wave trapping in most cases. Temperature inversions are present in roughly one-third of trapped lee wave cases. The implications of these results for the development of a trapped lee wave drag parametrisation scheme are discussed.

 

References:

Lyra, G. (1943) Theorie der stationären Leewellenströmung in freier Atmosphäre. Z. Angew. Math. Mech., 23, 1-28.

Coney, J. et al. (2023) Identifying and characterising trapped lee waves using deep learning techniques. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150, 213–231.

How to cite: Houtman, H. G., Teixeira, M. A. C., Gray, S. L., Vosper, S., Sheridan, P., and van Niekerk, A.: Investigating lee wave trapping mechanisms over the UK and Ireland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6939, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6939, 2025.

09:35–09:45
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EGU25-20147
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On-site presentation
Juerg Schmidli and Bruno Neininger

The atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over mountainous regions plays a crucial role in exchange processes between the surface and the free atmosphere, influencing weather, climate, and air quality. Unlike the relatively uniform ABL over flat terrain, the structure of the mountain boundary layer (MoBL) is highly complex due to the wide spectrum of scales of motion induced by the multi-scale orography. These scales range from small-scale turbulence and coherent structures to slope and valley winds, encompassing both thermally and dynamically forced flows. This intricate interplay of processes creates a highly heterogeneous and variable boundary layer that challenges traditional modeling approaches and necessitates detailed investigation. This study aims to enhance understanding of the convective boundary layer (CBL) over highly complex terrain by addressing the following questions: What are the characteristics of the coherent structures (e.g., thermals) in the CBL and how stationary are they? What is their diurnal cycle, and how do their statistics, such as preferred locations, vary from day to day?

To answer these questions, we utilize the ICON model to perform large-domain, real-world large-eddy simulations (LES) at a resolution of 65 m, incorporating 1.5 million grid points. The simulations employ a nesting strategy with four domains at resolutions of 520 m, 260 m, 130 m, and 65 m, progressively refining the model to capture fine-scale dynamics. Conducted over the Swiss Alps for seven days in August 2022, the simulations reveal a highly heterogeneous boundary layer with preferred locations for thermal formation. These locations exhibit a rather consistent diurnal cycle and remarkably small day-to-day variability, despite changing large-scale forcings. Comparisons with Alptherm, a Lagrangian model designed for forecasting gliding conditions, provide additional context. Insights from this study advance our understanding of the mountain ABL and support improvements in mesoscale and forecasting models for complex terrain.

How to cite: Schmidli, J. and Neininger, B.: On the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer over highly complex terrain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20147, 2025.

09:45–09:55
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EGU25-16472
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Julian Quimbayo-Duarte, Yue Tian, and Juerg Schmidli

Foehn winds are warm, dry, downslope winds that occur on the lee side of mountain ranges. They result when moist air is forced to ascend on the windward side, cooling and losing moisture as precipitation. As the now-drier air descends on the leeward side, it warms adiabatically, leading to distinct temperature and humidity profiles. In the Alps, the descent of foehn winds is often confined to distinct hotspots where the interplay between complex topography, mountain-induced gravity waves, and flow separation processes focuses the descending air. These hotspots are associated with localized warming and drying, which can significantly influence weather conditions, predictability, and their impact on ecosystems and human activities in the affected regions. Previous studies, utilizing the COSMO model, a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model at 1 km resolution, visualized these hotspots and established their connection to mountain-induced gravity wave. However, the adequacy of a 1 km resolution in accurately capturing flow separation at the mountain surface—a key feature influencing foehn dynamics and predictability—remains an open question.

To address this question, we conducted high-resolution simulations for two case studies: one in the Rhine Valley from February 2017 and another in Meiringen, Switzerland, from March 2022. Simulations were performed using the ICON model in NWP mode at a horizontal resolution of 1.1 km and ICON-LES at resolutions of 520 m, 260 m, and 130 m. For the Meiringen case, we validated our model setup using wind and temperature profiles obtained from the Meiringen Campaign (2021–2022). Meanwhile, the Rhine Valley case, previously analyzed at a resolution of 1 km, was revisited to assess whether higher resolutions provide an improved representation of flow separation dynamics. Additionally, we employ offline trajectories to precisely track the descent locations of the foehn air parcels, providing a detailed assessment of how model resolution influences the spatial distribution of descent hotspots in the Swiss Alps.

Our study is the first to combine trajectory analysis with LES simulations in foehn research, enabling a detailed visualization of foehn trajectories. The ultimate goal of this study is to provide guidance on selecting appropriate model resolutions to enhance the accuracy of research on foehn winds and their associated effects.

How to cite: Quimbayo-Duarte, J., Tian, Y., and Schmidli, J.: Assessing the representation of flow separation in Foehn descent with high-resolution numerical simulations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16472, 2025.

09:55–10:05
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EGU25-2940
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ECS
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On-site presentation
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Petar Golem, Hrvoje Kozmar, Željko Večenaj, and Branko Grisogono

Wind speed within bora (downslope windstorm) events at the northern Adriatic coast is often found to be “pulsating” in a quasi-periodic manner with a period of a few minutes. In an earlier work, the characteristic horizontal rotational motion of these pulsations at the town of Senj, Croatia was studied using tower measurements. In the present work this analysis is extended to a larger domain using a hectometer-scale numerical simulation (WRF-ARW) of a summer bora event. The model successfully reproduced the rotational motion at the position of the tower: the near-ground wind velocity vector within the band of periods between 3 and 11 min traces out a highly elongated ellipse in the counterclockwise direction, its major axis aligned with the shear vector at the top of the leeside low-level jet. The pulsations are associated with Kelvin-Helmholtz instability between the low-level jet and the stagnation zone. The most interesting finding is that the predominant rotation direction over the rest of the domain, especially over the sea, depends strongly on directional shear within the low-level jet, i.e., which direction the wind turns with height. It is argued that the cause of the predominant rotation direction is deformation of the laterally unstable Kelvin-Helmholtz billows by the directional shear.

How to cite: Golem, P., Kozmar, H., Večenaj, Ž., and Grisogono, B.: Simulating the submesoscale rotating structures in the bora wind, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2940, 2025.

10:05–10:15
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EGU25-7252
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On-site presentation
Rebeca Mallqui, Daniel Horna, and Juan Cabrera

The urban areas of many developing cities are suffering from environmental problems due to overpopulation and inadequate public services, in that sense, air pollution is one of the biggest problems. In general, Latin American cities have a higher density of vehicles and are therefore prone to experience high contributions of vehicular pollution. Considering also that the vehicle fleet is old and, in many cases, poorly maintained compared to more developed cities.

The dispersion of pollutants is mainly influenced by wind characteristics, which in turn are influenced by surface roughness (urban coverage) and mountain topography. The objective of the study is to evaluate the influence of surface roughness and topography on wind profiles and the dispersion of atmospheric pollutants in two populated hills located in the city of Cusco, the first called UNSAAC and the second Independencia Hill.

The analysis will be carried out using the numerical model RANS ENVI-met, which determines the dispersion of air pollutant taking into account the interaction between the cover and the atmosphere. The input of the model will be the topographic information, hourly meteorological data and the concentration of pollutants (NO2, SO2, O3, PM10) measured in the field for two months.

In the UNSAAC area, the urban coverage extends along one of the faces of a mountain with a 21 % slope and in the Indepencia area, the urban coverage is located between two mountains with a slope of 15 % (see Figure 1). Regarding roughness, 3 cases were evaluated: zero roughness (topography without buildings), normal roughness (topography with buildings) and increased roughness (topography with doubled-height buildings). Two wind directions were evaluated: 180° and 360°.

Figure 1: Northern axis of evaluation in the Independencia and UNSAAC area

According to the results, the velocity in the boundary layer is lower when the roughness is increased for both study areas; this difference is greater when the wind direction is 360° (see Figure 2). It can also be observed that the height of the boundary layer is higher in the urban area of Independencia. Here, the velocity exceeds 2 m/s at a height of 20 m, while, in the other profiles it exceeds this value at a height less than 5 m. On the other hand, a peak in the NO2 concentration values ​​with 180 µg/m3 can be observed in the urban area of ​​Independencia (see Figure 3).

The results of the study may be useful to buid a risk map of both areas, in order to identify areas with high concentrations of pollutants, and propose measures to reduce pollution, such as limiting the number of vehicles on certain roads.

Figure 2: Wind profiles for a) UNSAAC zone WD= 180° b) UNSAAC zone WD= 360° c) Independencia zone WD= 180° d) Independencia zone WD= 360°

Figure 3: NO2 concentration for a) UNSAAC zone  and b) Independencia zone

How to cite: Mallqui, R., Horna, D., and Cabrera, J.: Study of the influence of surface roughness and topography on wind profiles and the dispersion of atmospheric pollutant in two populated hills in Cusco, Peru, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7252, 2025.

Coffee break
Chairpersons: Sven Kotlarski, Stefano Serafin, Walter Immerzeel
Mountain climate
10:45–10:55
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EGU25-846
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Olivia Ferguglia, Elisa Palazzi, and Enrico Arnone

High-altitude regions have been identified as hotspots of climate change. In particular, the dependence of warming rates on elevation, known as Elevation-Dependent Warming (EDW), has been extensively discussed in the literature. Recently, the focus has expanded to the broader concept of Elevation-Dependent Climate Change (EDCC), with attention to precipitation and its extremes, given their importance for mountain hydrological resources and their role in triggering geo-hydrological hazards. Recent studies have investigated the elevational stratification of precipitation in  in-situ observations and reanalysis datasets, showing a lack of uniform patterns of EDCC across the world, which point to the need for common methodologies and insight in the driving mechanisms. In this study, we extend results we obtained with the ERA5 reanalysis to CMIP6 global climate models, and study EDCC in key mountain regions of the world: Tibetan Plateau, the US Rocky Mountains, the Greater Alpine Region, and the Andes. We focus on precipitation and its extremes, assessing the ability of the models  to reproduce historical patterns of stratification by comparison with ERA5 reanalysis data and other observation-based gridded datasets. We also explore how the stratification in other key climate variables, such as cloud cover, humidity, besides temperature, influence the elevational patterns of precipitation and precipitation extremes and their trends. Our analysis aims to determine whether the observed elevation-dependent precipitation patterns are primarily driven by dynamical, thermodynamical, or microphysical processes, identifying seasonal variations and the specific precipitation type (i.e., stratiform vs convective)  mostly affected. Particular attention is given to the role of the model spatial resolution, including regional climate models in a case study analysis over the Greater Alpine Region.

How to cite: Ferguglia, O., Palazzi, E., and Arnone, E.: Elevational dependency of precipitation climatology and trends in global mountains: a model view, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-846, 2025.

10:55–11:05
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EGU25-2606
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Sources of temperature biases in Regional Climate Models over complex orography: a general approach
(withdrawn)
Francesca Zarabara and Dario Giaiotti
11:05–11:15
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EGU25-1443
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Fangying Wu, Qinglong You, and Nick Pepin

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced accelerated warming in recent decades, especially in winter. However, a comprehensive quantitative study of its long-term warming processes during daytime and nighttime is lacking. This study quantifies the different processes driving the acceleration of winter daytime and nighttime warming over the TP during 1961-2022 using surface energy budget analysis. The results show that the surface warming over the TP is mainly controlled by two processes: a) a decrease in snow cover leading to a decrease in albedo and an increase in net downward shortwave radiation (snow-albedo feedback), and b) a warming in tropospheric temperature (850-200 hPa) leading to an increase in downward longwave radiation (air warming-longwave radiation effect). The latter has a greater impact on the spatial distribution of warming than the former, and both factors jointly influence the elevation dependent warming pattern. Snow-albedo feedback is the primary factor in daytime warming over the monsoon region, contributing to about 59% of the simulated warming trend. In contrast, nighttime warming over the monsoon region and daytime/nighttime warming in the westerly region are primarily caused by the air warming-longwave radiation effect, contributing up to 67% of the simulated warming trend. The trend in the near-surface temperature mirrors that of the surface temperature, and the same process can explain changes in both. However, there are some differences: an increase in sensible heat flux is driven by a rise in the ground-atmosphere temperature difference. The increase in latent heat flux is associated with enhanced evaporation due to increased soil temperature and is also controlled by soil moisture. Both of these processes regulate the temperature difference between ground and near-surface atmosphere.

How to cite: Wu, F., You, Q., and Pepin, N.: Quantifying processes of winter daytime and nighttime warming over the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1443, 2025.

11:15–11:25
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EGU25-14227
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On-site presentation
Pankaj Kumar and Aaquib Javed

The global retreat of glaciers is a widely recognized indicator of climate change. However, the Karakoram region of the Himalayas defies this trend, exhibiting a unique phenomenon termed the “Karakoram Anomaly,” characterized by glacier stability or surges. This anomaly has been increasingly linked to the dynamics of western disturbances (WDs), upper-tropospheric synoptic systems propagating eastward along the subtropical westerly jet stream, critical drivers of winter precipitation in the region. This study synthesizes recent analyses of WDs using tracking algorithms applied to reanalysis datasets (ERA5, MERRA2, and NCEP-CFSR/CFSv2) to evaluate their role in sustaining the Karakoram Anomaly. While the frequency of WDs has remained relatively steady, a ∼10% increase in precipitation intensity associated with WDs over the anomaly core region has been observed in recent decades. The Karakoram receives approximately 65% of its total winter snowfall from WDs, emphasizing its pivotal role in modulating regional glacier mass balance. Concurrently, snowfall from non-WD sources has declined by ∼17%, further underscoring the significance of WDs. Changes in atmospheric dynamics, including enhanced baroclinic instability and a latitudinal shift in the subtropical westerly jet, have been identified as contributors to the increased intensity of WDs. Moreover, a statistically significant eastward shift (~9.7°E) in the genesis zone of WDs has been noted, resulting in enhanced cyclogenesis potential, higher moisture availability, and reduced propagation speeds. These factors collectively intensify WD-induced precipitation events over the Karakoram, supporting anomalous glacier behavior. This study highlights the critical influence of strengthening WDs on the Karakoram Anomaly, providing new insights into the interplay between atmospheric dynamics and regional glacier dynamics under climate change.

 

Keywords: Glaciers, Karakoram anomaly, Western Disturbances, TRACK

Acknowledgement: Funding from Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB), Govt. of India, grant number CRG/2021/00l227-G

How to cite: Kumar, P. and Javed, A.: Karakoram Anomaly and its connection with the Western Disturbances, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14227, 2025.

11:25–11:35
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EGU25-3039
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Taylor Smith and Bodo Bookhagen

High Mountain Asia has experienced significant warming in recent decades. Changes in both temperature and precipitation patterns have strongly impacted regional hydrology, including changes to glaciers, snowmelt, and river systems. Here we examine long-term (1983-2023) and high-resolution (30 m) changes in water-surface temperature over a large and topographically diverse region encompassing the world’s highest mountains. We find that water-surface temperatures have significantly increased in the vast majority of the study area -- especially in snow-covered and high-elevation regions -- with a noted acceleration over the past decade. While some of this warming can be explained by increasing regional air temperatures, we find that surface water is warming faster than nearby dry areas. We posit that modifications to snowmelt timing and volume have created strong spatial heterogeneities in surface-water warming. These impacts will be felt both directly by cold-water flora and fauna, and downstream through decreases in surface-water quality.

How to cite: Smith, T. and Bookhagen, B.: Strongly Heterogeneous Surface-Water Warming Trends in High Mountain Asia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3039, 2025.

11:35–11:45
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EGU25-12489
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Jyoti Ranjan Mohanty, Jaya Khanna, Sumit Sen, and Jagdish Krishnaswamy

The Himalayas, known as the Earth's third pole, are vital to regional and global climate systems, supporting globally significant biodiversity and livelihoods through ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and water. However, in the west-central Indian Himalayas, moist, broad-leaved mixed-Oak forests are increasingly being replaced by dry, fire tolerant and fire prone Chir Pine forests, posing ecological concerns. This transition threatens biodiversity, reduces ecosystem functionality, and disrupts water availability, raising significant ecological and societal concerns. While the socio-ecological impacts have been explored, the hydro-climatic consequences remain less understood. To address this knowledge and data gap, we established two research observatories in Uttarakhand’s Chir pine and mixed-oak forests (~1600m elevation, 23° slope) to investigate how these forest transitions affect land -atmosphere energy fluxes, soil moisture, streamflow, and transpiration. Our study integrates field measurements with numerical simulations to provide insights into these changes. Bowen ratio (BR) assemblies were installed at 30m (pine) and 18m (oak) heights, equipped with EE181 and HC2S3 temperature and humidity sensors. Seasonal on-site calibration ensured reliable data collection, resulting in a nearly complete year of high-quality data from these remote locations. During the monsoon season, Pines exhibit higher BR evapotranspiration (ET) compared to Oaks, while during the dry period, their ET is only marginally higher. At the tree level, Pines transpire over a larger sapwood area and exhibit less stringent regulation of sap flow and associated transpiration under varying environmental conditions compared to Oaks. Hydrological analyses indicate that the catchments dominated by Pine have lower baseflow to precipitation percentage compared to Oak, rendering streams in these Pine dominated catchments ephemeral, unlike the more sustained baseflow in Oak-dominated forests. All the measurements corroborate the higher evapotranspiration observed in the Chir pine forest compared to Oak. These observations have been used to parameterize vegetation in the Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model, enabling high-resolution simulations of regional hydro-climatic conditions under different forest covers  This first ever study of these Himalayan vegetation transitions is likely to provide insights into the future changes in ecohydrology in this biodiversity and water security hotspot. 

How to cite: Mohanty, J. R., Khanna, J., Sen, S., and Krishnaswamy, J.: Forest Transition and its Hydro-Climatic Impacts in the Indian Himalayas: Inferences from Field Observations , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12489, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12489, 2025.

11:45–11:55
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EGU25-3810
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Quentin Nicolas and William Boos

Some of the rainiest regions on Earth lie upstream of tropical mountains, where the interaction of prevailing winds with orography produces frequent precipitating convection. Yet, the response of tropical orographic precipitation to the large-scale wind and temperature variations induced by anthropogenic climate change remains largely unconstrained.
Here, we quantify the sensitivity of tropical orographic precipitation to background cross-slope wind using theory, idealized simulations, and observations. We build on a recently developed theoretical framework that characterises the orographic enhancement of seasonal-mean precipitation, relative to upstream regions, as a response of convection to cooling and moistening of the lower free-troposphere by stationary orographic gravity waves. Using this framework and convection-permitting simulations, we show that higher cross-slope wind speeds deepen the penetration of the cool and moist gravity wave perturbation upstream of orography, resulting in a mean rainfall increase of 20--30% per m s-1 increase in cross-slope wind speed.
Additionally, we show that orographic precipitation in five tropical regions exhibits a similar dependence on changes in cross-slope wind at both seasonal and daily timescales. Given next-century changes in large-scale winds around tropical orography projected by global climate models, this strong scaling rate implies wind-induced changes in some of Earth's rainiest regions that are comparable with any produced directly by increases in global mean temperature and humidity. 

How to cite: Nicolas, Q. and Boos, W.: Sensitivity of tropical orographic precipitation to wind speed with implications for future projections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3810, 2025.

11:55–12:05
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EGU25-16132
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Simon Zitzmann, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann

This study investigates elevation-dependent warming (EDW) in the Alps, focusing on Berchtesgaden National Park, Germany, to provide insights into the drivers of warming patterns and their spatial variability.
EDW refers to the variation in warming rates across altitude, often characterized by intensified warming trends at higher elevations. This phenomenon has significant implications for mountainous and downstream ecosystems and water resources. While multiple factors contributing to EDW have been discussed in the literature – such as snow-albedo feedbacks and the increased sensitivity of cold, dry regions to climate change – the roles of soil interactions and topography remain underexplored.

Our research uses high-resolution spatial data and long-term temperature records to uncover how topography, soil properties and surface energy dynamics contribute to EDW. We utilize data from HISTALP, a homogenized observational dataset for the Greater Alpine Region, to examine the relationship between warming trends and topographic factors. Within the national park, 23 long-term stations monitor meteorological variables. Additionally, three temporary stations spanning altitudes from 617 to 1930 m measure surface energy balance components to capture elevation-dependent and small-scale effects.

Preliminary findings indicate that EDW is influenced by factors beyond altitude. Historical data (1910–2010) reveal significant warming across altitudes in the Greater Alpine Region, with rates of 0.4–2.4 K per century. Higher elevations generally experience stronger warming, except in winter, when mid-elevation bands (500–1000 m) warm the most. Slope orientation significantly affects warming rates, with north-facing slopes showing amplified trends. Ongoing research aims to develop a statistical model incorporating topography, vegetation and soil properties to map warming trends across the Alps.
Ground heat flux analysis reveals spatial variations potentially influenced by soil depth and moisture retention at different altitudes. Integrating these observations with simulations from the GEOtop hydrological model will provide spatially detailed and novel insights into relevant land surface processes.

How to cite: Zitzmann, S., Fersch, B., and Kunstmann, H.: Understanding elevation-dependent warming in the Alps through high-resolution surface energy balance analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16132, 2025.

12:05–12:30

Posters on site: Thu, 1 May, 14:00–15:45 | Hall X5

Display time: Thu, 1 May, 14:00–18:00
Chairpersons: Stefano Serafin, Sven Kotlarski, Walter Immerzeel
Mountain weather
X5.55
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EGU25-13987
Stephan De Wekker, Jagdish Desai, Gert-Jan Duine, and Leila Carvalho

In the lee of the Santa Ynez Mountains north of Santa Barbara, CA, late afternoon-to-early morning episodes of offshore, northerly gusty downslope surface winds are frequently observed. These downslope winds are locally known as Sundowners. Sundowners are spatially non-uniform and can be accompanied by rapid increases in temperature and decreases in relative humidity with significant impact on fire behavior. Our understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of Sundowners and the underlying mesoscale mechanisms is limited. To address this knowledge gap, the NSF-funded Sundowner Wind Experiment (SWEX) was conducted in Spring 2022.  

In this presentation, we focus on observations made by the surface-based mobile observing platform UWOW (University of Virginia Wind Observatory on Wheels), a trailer-mounted lidar system to measure spatial and temporal variations of lower tropospheric winds.  UWOW uses a HALO photonics StreamLine XR Doppler lidar, a GPS, and an inertial navigation system placed in a custom trailer to measure boundary layer winds while traveling on the road. UWOW can measure wind profiles from approximately 100 to 3000 m above ground with 30 m vertical spacing. During SWEX, UWOW travelled about 7000 km on roads around the Santa Ynez Mountains to document the spatial wind and aerosol variability during Sundowner Wind days and during undisturbed days. Data examples and comparisons with 1-km numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be discussed. 

How to cite: De Wekker, S., Desai, J., Duine, G.-J., and Carvalho, L.: Investigating the spatial structure of winds in complex terrain using a mobile wind lidar, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13987, 2025.

X5.56
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EGU25-17153
Sebastiano Carpentari, Mira Shivani Sankar, Nadia Vendrame, Dino Zardi, and Lorenzo Giovannini

Numerous studies proposed algorithms to identify days with well-developed valley wind circulations, commonly applying thresholds based on measurements from surface weather stations and/or reanalysis datasets. In the present study, the method suggested by Lehner et al. (2019) was selected as a starting point to detect valley wind days in the Alpine Adige Valley (Italy),  based on a year-long dataset collected at an eddy covariance flux station. The method employs three fixed thresholds: two on geopotential height gradients at 700 hPa in the North-South and West-East directions (synoptic forcing), and one on longwave radiation (Clear Sky Index, local forcing), following Marty and Philipona (2000). 

To refine the procedure, in this study four geopotential pressure levels were considered, using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset covering the period 1991-2020. Additionally, the daily threshold was assessed using a n-day moving window centered on the target day. The Clear Sky Index was calculated, choosing the most suitable emissivity parameterization for the Adige Valley. Furthermore, objective adjustments to the Clear Sky Index reference limit were made. Finally, the method was tested with data from other eddy-covariance stations to verify its performance in different contexts and generalize the results.

How to cite: Carpentari, S., Shivani Sankar, M., Vendrame, N., Zardi, D., and Giovannini, L.: Refining valley wind days detection from in situ observations and ERA5 reanalysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17153, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17153, 2025.

X5.57
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EGU25-16079
Rebecca Gugerli, Maxime Hervo, Alexander Gohm, Daniel Leuenberger, and Alexander Haefele

In the framework of the campaign TEAMx, MeteoSwiss deployed a Doppler Wind Lidar (WL, Windcube-100S) in Radfeld, Austria. The WL provides high resolution wind speed and – direction measurements within the Inn Valley at several altitudes. These observations provide a reliable reference to investigate the performance of model wind estimates in alpine valleys. In this study, we use analyses data from the ICON NWP model computed with KENDA, a Km-scale ENsemble-based Data Assimilation system. These data from the KENDA-CH1 NWP system have a spatial resolution of 1.1x1.1 km and a temporal resolution of 1 hour. First results show a good model performance at Radfeld with an average root mean square vector difference (RMSVD) of 3.78 m/s during the period from 23 October 2024 to 16 December 2024.

Furthermore, the comparison between observations and model analyses is extended to the sites of Kolsass and Innsbruck, which are both located in the same valley (Inn Valley) and at both sites wind observations are obtained by a WL (Halo Photonics Systems). In addition, we analyse the observations from a WL permanently deployed in Payerne (Switzerland).

Our results show that the model has an average RMSVD lower than 3.8 m/s for all sites during the given time period. The only exception with a higher RMSVD occurs during the storm Caetano (19-23 November 2024). For Payerne, we find a RMSVD of 2.7 m/s, which is significantly better than for the other sites. This is explained by the assimilation of several observed atmospheric profiles (wind and temperature) in the model, which positively impacts the model analyses. Moreover, Payerne has a flatter topography. Overall, our results confirm a good performance of the simulated wind dynamics by the high resolution KENDA-CH1 NWP system.

How to cite: Gugerli, R., Hervo, M., Gohm, A., Leuenberger, D., and Haefele, A.: Campaign TEAMx: First results of wind observations compared to model simulations at three sites in the Inn Valley (Austria), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16079, 2025.

X5.58
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EGU25-8083
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Alina Jasek-Kaminska, Łukasz Kiełt, Adrian Góra, and Mirosław Zimnoch

Mountain regions, as defined by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), cover less than 5% of Poland, but highly variable orography dominates almost whole southern border of the country. Under favorable conditions, orographic gravity waves are observed in the wind field over significant part of southern Poland, influencing airspace users. 

Private aircrafts, weighing around five tons and often less, experience orographically induced turbulence directly but not exclusively over the mountainous areas: rotors occurring downstream generate moderate or severe turbulence as well. Moreover, their presence may not be evident in cloudiness so that the pilot encounters so-called clear air turbulence (CAT). Airports located downstream can experience low level wind shear which creates additional difficulties for take-off and landing operations, and if encountered unprepared, can result in a dangerous loss of lift. It is recommended by the ICAO that mountain waves (MTW) of moderate or severe intensity are included in aviation weather forecasts products. 

This study presents the MTW climatology in Polish Carpathians, focusing mainly on the Tatra mountains, using observational data and ERA5 reanalysis. Typical synoptic situations favorable for MTW occurrence in southern Poland are summarized. Based on an extreme case of a devastating downslope windstorm in the Tatra mountains in 2013, the impact of numerical model resolution on resolving the mountain wave effects is investigated using high resolution WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) simulations. 

This project has been supported by the subsidy of the Meteorological Service for Civil Aviation of Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute of Poland, "Excellence Initiative - Research University" program at AGH University of Krakow (grant agreement no. 598707), and the subsidy of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education.

How to cite: Jasek-Kaminska, A., Kiełt, Ł., Góra, A., and Zimnoch, M.: Mountain waves occurrence in Polish Carpathians and their influence on aviation operations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8083, 2025.

X5.59
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EGU25-1058
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ECS
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Nischal Sharma and Raju Attada

Orographic interactions of intense western disturbances (WDs) with western Himalayan (WH) topography often drive persistent extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the region during the winter season, contributing to significant socio-economic losses. Accurate predictions of such events remain challenging due to the sparse gauge network and complex multi-scale interactions of dynamical and microphysical processes with the region’s heterogenous orography. Numerical weather prediction models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are widely utilized tools for simulating extreme precipitation with high-resolution and physically informed configurations. Kilometer-scale convection-permitting hold potential for improved representation of sub-grid processes, such as orographic effects and land-surface interactions, thus offering more scope for enhancing predictability. The present study investigates the predictability of intense WD-associated EPEs using convection-permitting (3 km) dynamically downscaled WRF simulations and a multi-physics ensemble (ENSM) approach, initialized using ERA5 reanalysis and validated with high resolution IMDAA (12 km) regional reanalysis. Ten persistent EPEs (lasting 3 or more consecutive days) were analyzed to assess sensitivity to sea surface temperature (SST) forcings and eight microphysical parameterization (MP) schemes (Single-moment: WSM7, Thompson8; Double-moment: WDM7, Thompson28, Morrison, P3). The findings reveal minimal variations from SST forcings at 3–4-day time scales, highlighting the dominant role of atmospheric processes at shorter time scales during winter EPEs. Both single- and double-moment MPs exhibited comparable performance, with minor spatial variations. The ENSM demonstrated enhanced prediction skill (>0.6) and accurately captured precipitation characteristics, including diurnal variations and dynamics like atmospheric baroclinicity, vertical wind shear, and stability driven by meridional temperature gradients. Overall, the findings underscore the potential of a convection-permitting multi-physics ensemble frameworks in enhancing the predictability of extreme winter precipitation over the orographic WH region.

Keywords: Convection-Permitting Simulations, WRF Model, Mountain Precipitation Extremes, Prediction, Microphysical Parameterization

How to cite: Sharma, N. and Attada, R.: Enhanced Predictability of Himalayan Orographic Precipitation Extremes Using a Kilometer-Scale Convection-Permitting Multi-Physics Ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1058, 2025.

Mountain climate
X5.60
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EGU25-6679
Thomas Shaw, Achille Jouberton, Masashi Niwano, Marin Kneib, Koji Fujita, and Francesca Pellicciotti

High Mountain Asia (HMA) provides crucial water resources to more than 1.5 billion people and accurate quantification of high elevation precipitation in this region is essential for understanding the hydrological cycle, patterns of ongoing climatic change, and water resource management. This is particularly the case in high elevation, glacierised catchments where the interplay of complex cryospheric and atmospheric processes limits our understanding of current and future water resource availability. Moreover, the role of precipitation and snow accumulation is critical for the health of glaciers which represent both an important freshwater storage and hydrological buffer to drought conditions, but also pose an increasing hazard to downstream populations through potential lake-damming and outburst floods. In both present-day and future modelling scenarios, precipitation at both macro and local scales generate some of the greatest uncertainties in glacier response to climate, and in few places are these hydroclimatic complexities better demonstrated than in HMA.

 

We explore the variability of precipitation estimates across several of the latest regional gridded products with high spatial (>= 10 km) and temporal (hourly) resolution and provide a specific focus over glacierized areas of HMA. Given the common temporal window of 2001-2019, we find substantial disagreement between precipitation products in terms of i) their annual and seasonal magnitudes, ii) the fraction of precipitation occurring during the summer/monsoon period, iii) the decadal difference of precipitation sums, iv) the inter-annual correlation to station observations, v) diurnal precipitation frequency and, vi) dependence on elevation and topographic complexity. Biases of precipitation amounts against in-situ station data can exceed +400% in steep mountainous areas of the Himalaya and errors between products are 23-120% greater over glacierized areas relative to the HMA-wide mean. 

 

When forcing an energy balance model over select glaciers, annual mass balances can disagree by up to 8 m w.e. (1.5 m w.e.) over a single year without (with) bias correction to local observations, propagating into highly distinct long-term trends of estimated glacier health. The high variability of glacier response at the catchment scale relates to spatial patterns of precipitation occurrence due to orographic effects and the resolution and physical process representation of different products. Differences in the surface energy balance of glaciers is, however, most strongly linked to the sub-daily timing of precipitation events and resultant temperature-driven phase of precipitation in different seasons. 

 

We discuss the implications of process representation by different precipitation products and the uncertainty attached to their application in models of glacier energy and mass balance. We also highlight the role of elevation-dependent temperature changes over HMA during the last decades and the implications for changing precipitation phase as a key driver of regionally distinct patterns of glacier mass balance.

How to cite: Shaw, T., Jouberton, A., Niwano, M., Kneib, M., Fujita, K., and Pellicciotti, F.: Precipitation Uncertainty Hampers the Understanding of Glacier Response in High Mountain Asia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6679, 2025.

X5.61
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EGU25-7058
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ECS
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Marco Bongio, Carlo De Michele, and Riccardo Scotti

Air temperature is a key variable in the meteo-climatological fields because impacts the atmospheric stability and clouds formation, drives wind patterns and defines the kind of precipitation. However, there is a scarcity of long-term data, especially at high elevations (more than 2000 m). This study proposes a statistical-based methodology to reconstruct a long-term daily temperature record (maximum, mean, and minimum) for high-altitude sites. We have tested it at Jungfraujoch (3571 m a.s.l.), Switzerland, with a backward simulation extending to 1900. The methodology involves daily data from surrounding meteorological stations (thirty), within the MeteoSwiss database, located at elevations ranging 485-2691m a.s.l., providing uninterrupted observations spanning at least the period from 1971 to 2023. The methodology includes the following steps: 1) long-term temporal consistency was evaluated by removing observations with data gaps exceeding 30 days; 2) the mean monthly trend was removed using a non-linear trend estimation function; 3) for each meteorological station, during the calibration period (1988–2005), the daily temperature at Jungfraujoch was estimated as the sum of the temperature at the selected station plus a deterministic and stochastic component; 4) pairwise model performance was evaluated within two validation periods (1971–1985 and 2005–2023) by calculating biases, RMSE, correlation coefficients, rank-based metrics, and the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE); 5) stations with a KGE greater than 0.9 were selected to calculate ensemble simulations, which were obtained as the weighted mean of these stations, extending back to the year 1900 ; 6) A validation was conducted by comparing the reconstructed time series with the closest grid point from two datasets: HISTALP and that provided by Imfeld et al. (2023).

The results suggest: i) comparable performance with existing datasets (HISTALP, Imfeld et al. 2023), despite using a highly parsimonious model that does not rely on additional variables such as relative humidity, cloud cover, wind velocity, or weather patterns; ii) the selection of stations with temporally consistent long-term observations is critical; iii) model performance, efficiency, and errors are primarily influenced by elevation, rather than latitude, longitude, exposure, or distance; iv) the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) is the most appropriate metric for selecting stations to be used in the ensemble; v) Temporally consistent time series generated by this methodology can provide a benchmark for evaluating observations anomalies and for deeper analysis of Elevation-Dependent Warming issue.

How to cite: Bongio, M., De Michele, C., and Scotti, R.: A KGE-based weighted mean of stations’ ensemble to estimate the air temperature at Jungfraujoch since 1900, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7058, 2025.

X5.62
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EGU25-14115
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ECS
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Lily Welsh, Sarah Neuhaus, and Slawek Tulaczyk

Mount Shasta, a large stratovolcano in northern California, contains the southernmost glacial system in North America (41.3 degrees N, about the latitude of Rome). Due to its southern position, this glacial system is very vulnerable to climate warming. However, previous research indicated that this glacial system experienced significant growth during the second half of the twentieth century, mainly as a result of the so-called "snowgun effect" at high elevations, operating in the warmer, wetter winters of this ocean-influenced climate (Howat & Tulaczyk, 2005 & Howat et al., 2006). New results indicate recent, significant glacier collapse as a result of continued climate warming leading to increased ablation, which eventually overwhelms the effect of increased snow deposition at high elevations. The Hotlum, Bolam and Whitney glaciers reside on the North face of Mount Shasta while Konwakiton and Wintun reside on the South face. It is evident that glacial bodies have receded in this time period, but a more indepth inspection of the effects of climate change on the Bolam Glacier was deemed necessary. The glaciers within Mount Shasta provide a small percentage of water to the Shasta Reservoir. More notably, the glacial bodies provide water supply to support habitats for immense biodiversity in flora and fauna within the region, including endemic species. Changes in glacial terminus elevation of the Bolam Glacier were observed in the field and through aerial photography. Through topographic and photographic inspection, in field geolocated waypoint collection and analysis of field data, a retreat of nearly 1500 meters at the Bolam Glacier was observed between the years photographs of 1998 and of 2024, suggesting a significant impact on glacial bodies in the region due to changes in climate.

References

Ewert, J. W., Diefenbach, A. K., & Ramsey, D. W. (n.d.). Eruption History of Mount Shasta U.S. Geological Survey. USGS.gov. Retrieved January 6, 2025, from https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mount-shasta

Geology and History of Mount Shasta U.S. Geological Survey. (2023, November 6). USGS.gov. Retrieved January 6, 2025, from https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mount-shasta/science/geology-and-history-mount-shasta 

Howat, I. M., & Tulaczyk, S. (2005, December 8). Climate sensitivity of spring snowpack in the Sierra Nevada. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110.

Howat, I. M., Tulaczyk, S., Rhodes, P., Israel, K., & Snyder, M. (2006, August 18). A precipitation-dominated, mid-latitude glacier system: Mount Shasta, California. Climate Dynamics, 28, 85-98.

Howat, I. M., & Tulaczyk, S. (2005). Trends in spring snowpack over a half-century of climate warming in California, USA. Annals of Glaciology, 40, 151.

Lindsey, R., & Dahlman, L. (2024, January 18). Climate Change: Global Temperature NOAA Climate.gov. Climate.gov. Retrieved January 6, 2025, from

How to cite: Welsh, L., Neuhaus, S., and Tulaczyk, S.: Assessing The Impact of Global Warming on Glacial Elevation of The Bolam Glacier , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14115, 2025.

X5.63
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EGU25-15922
Dana-Magdalena Micu, Vlad-Alexandru Amihaesei, Gabriele Quinti, Kirsten Halsnæs, Shreya Some, Monica-Gabriela Paraschiv, Alexandru Dumitrescu, and Sorin Cheval

Mountain regions are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards, such as snow avalanches, landslides, or flash-flooding, which are increasingly exacerbated by climate warming and changing climate patterns. This paper leverages the Copernicus Regional ReAnalysis for Europe (CERRA) dataset, with 5 km x 5 km spatial resolution, from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), covering the period 1985–2020, to analyse the changing of the seasonal patterns of snow depth and snowfall in two major European mountain ranges: the Alps and the Carpathians. More specifically, the study aims to identify the mountain areas with persistent and statistically significant increases or declines in snowfall and snow depth, referred to as "hotspots". The focus of the study is on four key snow depth and snowfall-related indicators including (i) total snow depth, (ii) number of snow cover days, (iii) days with snow depth exceeding 30 cm, and (iv) snowfall water equivalent. The hotspots are identified based on local spatial auto-corelation methods (the Getis and Ord G statistic), using the estimated Mann-Kendall trends of the four snow indicators as inputs. A positive Gi value signifies that a feature and its surrounding neighbours exhibit high values, whereas a negative Gi value indicates low values in the feature and its neighbours. The magnitude of the Gi value reflects the intensity of the clustering. 
The results indicate widespread hotspots characterised by significant declines in both snow depth and snowfall indicators, in all seasons, especially at low and mid-elevations in both mountain regions. The observed shifts are particularly pronounced during winter (December-January-February) and spring (March-April-May). The location of identified hotspots carries multiple implications for the distribution and availability of water resources, ecosystem services, infrastructure and tourism activities, and so for the livelihood of mountain communities. These findings provide critical insights into the shifting snow avalanche hazard and their socio-economic impacts at NUTS3 level and in specific areas where historical snow avalanche events have significantly impacted three key socio-economic sectors—tourism, infrastructures, and forestry. They also could underscore the ongoing challenges in the mountain risk management under a changing climate.
This research received funds from the project “Cross-sectoral Framework for Socio-Economic Resilience to Climate Change and Extreme Events in Europe (CROSSEU)” funded by the European Union Horizon Europe Programme, under Grant agreement n° 101081377.

How to cite: Micu, D.-M., Amihaesei, V.-A., Quinti, G., Halsnæs, K., Some, S., Paraschiv, M.-G., Dumitrescu, A., and Cheval, S.: Observed hotspots of changing snow depth and snowfall in European mountain regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15922, 2025.

X5.64
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EGU25-16725
Pere Esteban Vea, Marc Prohom Duran, and Jordi Cunillera Grañó

In recent decades, several research efforts have been made to quantify climate change in the Pyrenees, mainly focusing on temperature and precipitation trends since the 1950s. However, as in many mountain regions around the world, the lack of data at the highest elevations makes it difficult to draw solid conclusions about the varying warming rates at different altitudes.

As part of the LIFE-SIP project "Pyrenees4Clima" (2024-2032) various tasks for the detection and analysis of Elevation-Dependent Warming (EDW) have been planned. First, as much climate series as possible above 1,500 meters is being compiled, with trend analysis, quality control, and homogenization (if needed) being carried out. Additionally, temperature and relative humidity sensors will be installed during the summer of 2025 to create or enhance four pilot areas in Spain (Catalonia and Aragón), France, and Andorra for a detailed analysis of EDW and circulation patterns. To support this readings, a complete automatic weather station has been installed in one of the pilote areas (in the Catalan Pyrenees and 1,700 m). By incorporating snow measurements from existing automatic weather stations, the influence of the presence or absence of snow on warming will also be explored.

This presentation aims to show EGU 2025 participants our objectives, intentions, and results to date, learn about other EDW case studies, and share experiences and recommendations during this initial phase of our project.

How to cite: Esteban Vea, P., Prohom Duran, M., and Cunillera Grañó, J.: Steps for the identification of Elevation Dependent Warming in the Pyrenees, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16725, 2025.

X5.65
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EGU25-16963
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ECS
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Tomasz Gluzinski, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Coline Mollaret, and Cécile Pellet

In recent years the changing state of the cryosphere has been one of the most visually striking effects of climate change in mountainous terrains, gathering increased attention of not only the scientific community but the general public. Ice loss in the subsurface, caused by a warming ground thermal regime, is not directly visible such as retreating glaciers or annual snow cover changes, but it can have major impacts on ground stability.
Heat waves may contribute twofold to cryospheric changes: (1) as contributors to the general warming trend and (2) by (potentially) irreversibly changing the ground ice content through excessive amounts of heat penetrating the ground during such an event. Here, we focus on the second aspect and its impact on mountain permafrost. Although climatological research provides several tools for heat wave analysis, the application of (often regional) studies to the sparsely available borehole data and discrete meteorological monitoring networks are rare.
We employ the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) metric to analyse temperature data from several Swiss Permafrost Monitoring Network (PERMOS) and MeteoSwiss stations near well-studied permafrost monitoring sites in the Alps. Historical and reconstructed data are used to determine specific temperature thresholds per site, accounting for local conditions (such as geomorphology, geology or ice content) therefore a systematic heat wave definition can be applied uniformly across all locations.
HWMId is compared to the changes in ground moisture content and observed changes in the permafrost body derived from borehole data. In addition, ice content is independently estimated from time series of 2-dimensional geophysical data, namely seismic refraction tomography and electrical resistivity tomography jointly inverted by petrophysical joint inversion. Initial results from the analysis of decade-long time series show correspondence between ground resistivity decrease with a general increasing trend in heat wave occurrences and intensity. Moreover heat waves precondition the permafrost for further thawing in subsequent years. Resilience of permafrost to the heat wave events in different landforms brings important implications for slope stability and safety of communities and infrastructure in mountainous regions.

How to cite: Gluzinski, T., Hauck, C., Hilbich, C., Mollaret, C., and Pellet, C.: Insight into subsurface - quantification of alpine heat waves and their impact on high mountain permafrost, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16963, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16963, 2025.