Session ITS3.8/NH13.16

[Programme]

ITS3.8/NH13.16 | Climate Impacts and Environmental Change in Mountain Social-Ecological Systems

Climate Impacts and Environmental Change in Mountain Social-Ecological Systems

Convener: Margreth Keiler | Co-conveners: Rebekah HarriesECSECS, Carolina Adler, german aguilar, Sven Fuchs

Orals

| Wed, 30 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)

Room 2.17

Posters on site

| Attendance Wed, 30 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Wed, 30 Apr, 14:00–18:00

Hall X3

Posters virtual

| Attendance Fri, 02 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Fri, 02 May, 08:30–18:00

vPoster spot 2

Mountains are complex social-ecological systems and natural laboratories in which to tangibly explore and understand how drivers and processes of global change manifest in specific places. In this session, we invite inter- and transdisciplinary contributions that examine environmental change, their associated impacts for ecosystems and people in mountain environments, and measures taken to address these impacts. This session is open to conceptual as well as empirical measurement and/or modelling or scenario studies of mountain climate, cryosphere, ecology, hazards, and hydrology, which also incorporate studies on intersecting socio-economic dimensions and risks.
Mountains as complex terrain are challenging to parameterize in models and also due to the lack of data in high-elevation. Climate change, including elevation-dependent warming, shifting precipitation patterns, retreating glaciers, degrading permafrost, are reshaping high-mountain landscapes. These changes have a direct impact on population of these regions. Likewise, there is a need to capture and account for socio-economic changes such as demographic and land-use change and their projections to improve our understanding of how hazards, vulnerability, and exposure interact in terms of impacts and risks.
This session seeks to explore problems to environmental change. Contributions focused on mountain system dynamics through remote sensing, numerical modelling, laboratory techniques, and field observations are welcome, as are efforts to reduce uncertainties surrounding future compounding hazards and risks. We welcome contributions that describe how steps are being taken to address such knowledge gaps, and integration methods that include societal data and information to characterise and represent a more comprehensive systems approach to global change.
As 2025 marks the UN-declared International Year for Glaciers' Preservation, and the kick-off to the UN Decade of Action for Cryosphere Sciences, this session especially invites contributions that addressing the challenges and opportunities posed by a changing cryosphere, with particular attention to the human dimensions associated with adaptation and resilience.
This session is endorsed and supported by the Mountain Research Initiative, the Institute for Interdisciplinary Mountain Research of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, and the Sediment Cascades and Climate Change initiative.

Orals: Wed, 30 Apr | Room 2.17

Chairpersons: Rebekah Harries, Margreth Keiler

14:00–14:05

5-minute convener introduction

14:05–14:25

EGU25-12128

solicited

On-site presentation

Geo-biosphere Interactions Across the Tibetan Plateau In Response to Climate Change

Todd A. Ehlers

The high-elevation Tibetan Plateau encompasses ~2.5 million km³ and represents a major orographic barrier that influences global atmospheric circulation. Precipitation and glacier melt in the mountain regions surrounding the plateau are a water resource for more than 1.4 billion people. Over the Cenozoic, the rise of the plateau surface induced dramatic regional changes in the atmosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, and hydrosphere. Present-day global warming has significantly impacted the interactions between these different spheres in ways we are only beginning to understand.

This presentation investigates how past and present climate change have impacted the Plateau’s permafrost, hydrology, and ecosystems. This is done using atmospheric general circulation models and a compilation of existing climate, hydrologic, cryosphere, biosphere, and geologic studies documenting environmental change from decadal and glacial-interglacial timescales back to the middle Miocene. Results indicate that warmer and wetter periods in the geologic past led to a flourishing of plateau ecosystems. However, recent anthropogenic-induced warming and wetting of the plateau have led to the opposite effect and degradation of many plateau ecosystems in former permafrost environments. This contrast in environmental ‘health’ between the geologic past and the present day is interpreted to result from anthropogenic disturbances of plateau environments via changes in grazing practices.

Looking towards the future, two pathways are identified that could lead to either favourable greening or unfavourable degradation and desiccation of plateau ecosystems. Both paths are plausible, given the available evidence. The key to which environmental pathway future generations experience lies in what if any, human intervention measures and management strategies are implemented.

Related references:

Ehlers, T. A., Chen, D., Appel, E., Bolch, T., Chen, F., Diekmann, B., Dippold, M. A., Giese, M., Guggenberger, G., Lai, H.-W., Li, X., Liu, J., Liu, Y., Ma, Y., Miehe, G., Mosbrugger, V., Mulch, A., Piao, S., Schwalb, A., Thompson, L. G., Su, Z., Sun, H., Yao, T., Yang, X., Yang, K., and Zhu, L.: Past, present, and future geo-biosphere interactions on the Tibetan Plateau and implications for permafrost, Earth-Science Reviews, 234, 104197, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104197, 2022.

Li, J., Ehlers, T. A., Werner, M., Mutz, S. G., Steger, C., and Paeth, H.: Late quaternary climate, precipitation δ18O, and Indian monsoon variations over the Tibetan Plateau, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 457, 412–422, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.09.031, 2017.

Mutz, S. G., Ehlers, T. A., Werner, M., Lohmann, G., Stepanek, C., and Li, J.: Estimates of late Cenozoic climate change relevant to Earth surface processes in tectonically active orogens, Earth Surface Dynamics, 6, 271–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, 2018.

How to cite: Ehlers, T. A.: Geo-biosphere Interactions Across the Tibetan Plateau In Response to Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12128, 2025.

14:25–14:35

EGU25-11438

ECS

On-site presentation

Mountain Grasslands under Climate Stress: Drivers, Trends, and Future Projections

Mulun Na, Giulia Zuecco, and Paolo Tarolli

Mountain grasslands are crucial ecosystems that provide essential services such as carbon storage, water regulation, and biodiversity conservation. However, these ecosystems are increasingly under threat from changing climatic conditions and human activities. This study explores the historical and future dynamics of vegetation in mountain grasslands worldwide, using a combination of diverse datasets and machine learning tools. For historical trends, spanning the years 2000 to 2021, we analyzed ERA5 climate reanalysis data and global Human Modification (gHM) indices to evaluate the combined impacts of climate variability and human pressures. Future scenarios were developed using climate model projections from CMIP6 and vegetation coverage data, giving us a better understanding of potential changes under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We used machine learning techniques, such as Random Forest, XGBoost, and LSTM, to identify key drivers of vegetation changes. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) helped interpret the contributions of these factors. Our findings reveal that factors like near-surface temperature, evaporation, and human influence play a significant role in shaping vegetation patterns. Over the past two decades, while many grasslands have remained stable, substantial degradation was observed in regions such as South Africa, North America, and Western Asia due to water stress and expanding land use. On the other hand, recovery was seen in areas like Central Europe and Asia, where efforts like reforestation and improved land management have made a positive impact. Looking ahead, future trends vary across scenarios. Under SSP126, vegetation remains mostly stable, whereas SSP245 predicts more variability and localized stress. SSP585 presents a mixed picture: while some regions benefit from longer growing seasons and higher CO₂ levels, others face significant degradation due to extreme climatic events and water scarcity. In areas heavily influenced by human activity, tipping-point dynamics could lead to irreversible losses in vegetation and ecosystem function. This study underscores the complex interplay of climate and human activities in shaping mountain grasslands. It emphasizes the urgent need for sustainable land management and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate risks, protect these ecosystems, and ensure their continued provision of critical services.

How to cite: Na, M., Zuecco, G., and Tarolli, P.: Mountain Grasslands under Climate Stress: Drivers, Trends, and Future Projections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11438, 2025.

14:35–14:45

EGU25-197

ECS

On-site presentation

Land-cover changes in mountain areas increasing fatalities from landslides: A Global Perspective

Seckin Fidan, Tolga Gorum, Abdullah Akbas, Bikem Ekberzade, and Ugur Ozturk

Landslides are one of the most devastating geohazards that cause substantial loss of life and socio-economic damage in mountainous areas worldwide every year. Landslides are becoming more common due to increased anthropogenic disturbance, threatening sustainable development in mountainous environments. Population pressure and associated land cover changes are expected to increase the frequency and impacts of landslides. However, only a small number of studies have investigated this on a global scale. Here, we examine the interactions between land cover change, population change, landslide, and landslide fatalities across mountain areas of 46 countries based on income level. We calculate a ~60-year-long land cover change and a 45-year-long population change rate and create linear regression models to assess their relationship with landslides and landslide fatalities. Our results show that there is a significant relationship between land cover and population changes in mountainous areas. Also, land cover change in lower-middle and low-income countries, where the degree of change and human intervention is notably higher, occurs at a greater rate and intensity compared to other income groups. Furthermore, our findings indicate that landslide and fatalities density increase substantially as land cover change increases, again in lower-middle and low-income countries. This observation points toward change in land cover as a critical factor in landscape dynamics and highlights human pressure as a pre-conditioning/triggering factor for fatal landslides. Consequently, the high spatial overlap between fatal landslides and land cover change highlights critical areas where it is essential to prioritize landslide mitigation measures to protect vulnerable mountain environments and maintain resilient societies, particularly in lower-middle and low-income countries.

How to cite: Fidan, S., Gorum, T., Akbas, A., Ekberzade, B., and Ozturk, U.: Land-cover changes in mountain areas increasing fatalities from landslides: A Global Perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-197, 2025.

14:45–14:55

EGU25-18916

On-site presentation

Glacier retreat dominates surface warming by land cover change in Switzerland

Dirk Scherler, Deniz Gök, and Hendrik Wulf

Between 1985 and 2018, 12% of Switzerland’s area changed its land cover, with significant impacts on land surface temperatures. Similar to other industrialized countries, settlements have grown, mostly at the expense of farmland, resulting in additional heating due to vegetation loss and surface sealing. Landsat-derived LST trends at 100 m spatial resolution show that the strongest warming from land cover change is associated with glacial retreat. Over the last four decades, ice loss has led to an average warming rate of 0.05 K/yr relative to surfaces with stable ice cover. Although land cover changes associated with the concurrent expansion of vegetation result in relative surface cooling, this is insufficient to counter the warming caused by ice retreat. The combination of relative surface cooling and warming due to land cover changes that occur in response to climate warming may contribute to the observed phenomenon of elevation-dependent warming. Furthermore, surface warming near the retreating ice is likely to affect the microclimate, possibly accelerating glacier retreat and promoting heat propagation to greater depths, which may lead to permafrost thawing and destabilization of steep rocky slopes.

How to cite: Scherler, D., Gök, D., and Wulf, H.: Glacier retreat dominates surface warming by land cover change in Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18916, 2025.

14:55–15:05

EGU25-8744

ECS

On-site presentation

Analysis of changes in land cover in the Kyrgyz Republic using remote sensing data.

Koisun Darylkan kyzy, Kobogon Atyshov, and Lukas Lehnert

Accurate information about land cover is essential for scientific research, monitoring, and reporting to achieve sustainable development in a region. In the mountainous areas of the Kyrgyz Republic, land cover changed heavily due to anthropogenic activities over the past years. Remote sensing is one of the key methods for monitoring such changes, because there is a lack of data due to its remoteness and harsh environmental conditions. The purpose of this study is to analyze changes in land cover in the Kyrgyz Republic using remote sensing data. In this study, we use a series of Sentinel-2 images with high spatial resolution over time of land cover to create a set of annual maps from 2017 to 2024 for all nature protection territories of the Kyrgyz Republic, which are listed in the IUCN (The International Union for Conservation of Nature). These data sets allow us to analyze the development of trends in land cover changes in the studied territories since 2017 with high spatial and temporal detail. An analysis of land cover changes will be carried out, paying special attention to anthropogenic changes (as well as changes in glaciers, glacial lakes, etc.). Since land use and land cover (LULC) have changed dramatically due to anthropogenic activities, especially in places where the tourist infrastructure is developed and the flow of tourists is significant. These data provide valuable information on vegetation growth, deforestation and land degradation, which are essential for effective environmental management and sustainable development of the Kyrgyz Republic.

How to cite: Darylkan kyzy, K., Atyshov, K., and Lehnert, L.: Analysis of changes in land cover in the Kyrgyz Republic using remote sensing data., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8744, 2025.

15:05–15:15

EGU25-11060

ECS

On-site presentation

Predicting bankfull channel dimensions through Stepwise Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest in intermittent Mediterranean streams.

Antonio Jodar-Abellan, Mistral Van Oudenhove, Joris De Vente, Carolina Boix-Fayos, and Joris Eekhout

Hydrological and soil erosion models are often used to assess the impacts of global change and potential adaptation strategies on flood risks and sediment transport. These hydrology and sediment transport models require channel dimensions as input to quantify flood frequency, runoff, flow velocity, sediment detachment and deposition processes. Especially for large-scale applications, channel dimensions (width and depth) are difficult to obtain. Therefore, simple empirical relations have been developed, relating channel dimensions with catchment area or bankfull discharge, disregarding other important factors affecting these dimensions.

Here we present an advanced combined methodology to obtain reliable estimates of channel dimensions for the large Mediterranean Segura catchment (16,000 km²), based on linear statistical regression and machine learning techniques. First, a training dataset of channel dimensions (width and depth) was prepared using a LiDAR high resolution digital elevation model (2 m resolution) and aerial photos (50 cm resolution) for 151 channel segments across four representative large sub-catchments. For each channel segment, 30 variables characterising the upstream catchment were obtained from available spatial data sources (e.g. soil type, slope, annual precipitation). The obtained training dataset was used in a combination of Stepwise Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest to predict channel width and depth. Best results were obtained with the RF model using the variables selected through the stepwise MLR process, as RF models composed only by these MLR predictor variables showed nodes with more purity rather than RF formed by the complete set of independent variables. Most important variables for prediction of channel width were Calcareous lithology, mean annual temperature, extreme precipitation, and alluvial soils. For channel depth, the most important variables were extreme precipitation, channel slope, and mean annual temperature. Model validation indicated good results for prediction of channel width (R² 0.75) and depth (R² 0.66). These results provide further insights into the factors affecting channel dimensions, and seems to be a promising approach to obtain channel dimensions for hydrological and sediment transport modelling in large catchments.

We acknowledge funding for the XTREME project from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and ‘Agencia Estatal de Investigación’ (PID2019-109381RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033), and for the LandEX project (PCI2024-153454) financed by the European Commission, Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities and the Spanish Research Agency (AEI 10.13039/501100011033/EU) in the framework of the European Water4All Partnership 101060874. A. Jodar-Abellan (JDC2022-049314-I) and J.P.C. Eekhout (IJC2020-044636-I) acknowledge financial support from the Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities for the Juan de la Cierva postdoctoral grants.

How to cite: Jodar-Abellan, A., Van Oudenhove, M., De Vente, J., Boix-Fayos, C., and Eekhout, J.: Predicting bankfull channel dimensions through Stepwise Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest in intermittent Mediterranean streams. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11060, 2025.

15:15–15:25

EGU25-11437

ECS

On-site presentation

Perceptions of Earthquake Risks and Climate Change: A Case Study of Dho Tarap, Dolpo in the Mountain Region of Nepal

Shakti Raj Shrestha, Jeanne Fernandez, Nistha Nakarmi, Garima Nakarmi, and Nyima Dhargey

Increasingly, there is an onus on incorporating indigenous perspectives in research, especially in relation to climate change and disasters. This paper aims to add to this discussion through a novel approach by comparing perceptions of climate change risks against seismic hazard risk in the mountain regions of Nepal. A case study was done in Dho Tarap Valley, situated at 4080m where two larger village clusters out of three were surveyed for data collection. In total, 204 out of 220 households were surveyed through total sampling. In addition, interviews of four relevant stakeholders (a monk, a local government representative, a local leader, and an academic) were carried out through snowball sampling.

According to results, Dho Tarap is a homogenous, Buddhist (100%) society where the primary profession is agriculture (86%) and where lack of formal education (77%) is the norm. The locals perceive that, in the last 10-20 years, the temperature has increased (81%) and there is less snow now than before (97%). But changes in rain patterns were less conclusive. Most locals did not understand what climate change meant (72%) and have done ‘nothing’ if not for ‘prayers’ to address observed changes in weather patterns. In contrast, locals were knowledgeable about earthquakes, and 56% of the population considered themselves to be aware of earthquake risks. Additionally, 54% of the population did not believe that Dho Tarap is exposed to future seismic risks. The indigenous population considered earthquakes as a hazard risk whereas changes in weather patterns were not associated with climatic hazards but mostly attributed to local human activities. These results shed light into indigenous views of climate change and natural hazards. This difference in perception on earthquake risks and climate change risks highlights the necessity to cater disaster management strategies that considers local perceptions of risks.

How to cite: Shrestha, S. R., Fernandez, J., Nakarmi, N., Nakarmi, G., and Dhargey, N.: Perceptions of Earthquake Risks and Climate Change: A Case Study of Dho Tarap, Dolpo in the Mountain Region of Nepal, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11437, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11437, 2025.

15:25–15:35

EGU25-20609

ECS

Virtual presentation

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation among mountain guides in the Canadian Rockies

Katherine Hanly and Graham McDowell

This study characterizes the vulnerability of mountain guides to climate change in the Canadian Rockies. Using semi-structured interviews (n=30) and one focus group (n=4 participants) with guides based in the region, we assess the extent to which guides have observed climate-related cryospheric change, evaluate the relevance of these changes to their guiding practices, and examine their responses to changing climatic conditions. Findings demonstrate that 100% of guides have observed climate-related changes in the mountain cryosphere of the Canadian Rockies, leading to an increase in objective hazards (90%), restrictions in when and where guides can operate (75%), and alterations in route character (63%). Guides experience of these changes varied according to the type of guiding services they provide and their livelihood characteristics. In response, guides have adapted using temporal (100%), spatial (100%), and activity substitutions (83%), dedicating more time to research and planning (87%), and managing client expectations (53%). In using these adaptation strategies, guides in the region encountered both barriers and limitations. we elucidate the consequences of these impediments and discuss potential strategies for reducing or eliminating such barriers and limits to adaptation in a mountain guiding context. This study serves as a benchmark for tracking lived experiences of climate change amongst mountain guides in the Canadian Rockies, and offers insights for the development of interventions aimed at enhancing the resilience of mountain guiding communities in the face of evolving environmental challenges.

How to cite: Hanly, K. and McDowell, G.: Climate change vulnerability and adaptation among mountain guides in the Canadian Rockies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20609, 2025.

15:35–15:45

EGU25-21510

On-site presentation

A coupled-human-landscape model for understanding resilience patterns and pathways of mountain communities

Annemarie Polderman, Andrea Kehl, Andreas Mayer, Pia Echtler, Matthias Schlögl, Sven Fuchs, and Margreth Keiler

The coupled human-landscape system (CHLS) conceptual model, developed by Hossain et al. (2020), integrates natural and social processes using system dynamics to capture interactions and feedbacks between socio-economic and biophysical systems. This model enables the assessment of mountain communities’ risks and resilience to natural hazards. However, further development of the model is necessary to deepen understanding of key interactions and feedbacks. The goal is to refine the CHLS model as a “blueprint” for providing insights into future trajectories of mountain community risk and resilience, while also broadening perspectives on hazard and risk management by integrating adaptation strategies into the context of governance arrangements.

The ACRP project EMERGENCE explores how transdisciplinary knowledge co-creation within a multi-scale assessment framework—encompassing climate triggers, geomorphometric characteristics, mitigation efforts, and exposure dynamics—enhances understanding of the processes driving torrential loss events and the resilience of mountain communities. This approach bridges the gap between conceptual human-landscape interaction modelling and the practical knowledge of stakeholders in hazard risk management. The insights gained inform adaptation strategies that are tailored to stakeholder needs.

We present how Austrian experts in hazard and climate risk management identified damage triggers and examined their interactions within the CHLS framework. These efforts contributed to refining the model at the conceptual or numerical level, or by enhancing its basic assumptions. This process has strengthened the CHLS model’s capacity to provide insights into future trajectories of mountain community resilience and adaptation strategies.

Reference:

Hossain, M.S., Ramirez, J.A., Haisch, T., Speranza, C.I., Martius, O., Mayer, H., & Keiler, M. (2020). A coupled human and landscape conceptual model of risk and resilience in Swiss Alpine communities. Science of the Total Environment, 730, 138322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138322

How to cite: Polderman, A., Kehl, A., Mayer, A., Echtler, P., Schlögl, M., Fuchs, S., and Keiler, M.: A coupled-human-landscape model for understanding resilience patterns and pathways of mountain communities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21510, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21510, 2025.

Posters on site: Wed, 30 Apr, 16:15–18:00 | Hall X3

Display time: Wed, 30 Apr, 14:00–18:00

Chairpersons: Margreth Keiler, german aguilar, Rebekah Harries

X3.41

EGU25-15208

ECS

OSPP

Interdisciplinary Integration in Alpine Social-Ecological Systems Research

Hanna Salomon, Julie Dölker, Louis König, Jasmin Krähenbühl, Veronika Schick, Chantal Schmidt, Harald Bugmann, Sabine Hoffmann, Eva Lieberherr, Ivana Logar, Brian McArdell, Peter Molnar, Fritz Schlunegger, Astrid Zabel, and Jialin Zhang

The inter- and transdisciplinary research project TREBRDIGE (formally titled Transformation toward Resilient Ecosystems: Bridging Natural and Social Sciences) focuses on watershed management in Alpine regions in Switzerland. centuries, check dams have been constructed in streams to control erosion and flooding, while intensive forest management in these areas has further influenced both flood and erosion processes. The maintenance of flood management infrastructure requires high financial investments and at the same time affects the resilience of the ecosystems. The aim of TREBRIDGE is to identify alternative policy and management approaches of watersheds in Alpine regions. Such approaches aim on the one hand to increase the resilience of Alpine ecosystems in coping with extreme weather events and on the other hand meet societal needs regarding natural resource use and protection.

The transdisciplinary aspect of TREBRIDGE focuses on creating and assessing alternative policy and management to explore different scenarios which are co-created in collaboration with researchers, policymakers, as well as national, regional, and local actors. We focus on three case study areas in the Swiss Alps: Alptal (Canton Schwyz), Gürbetal (Canton Bern) and Illgraben (Canton Valais). All case studies are prone to varying natural hazard risks but have a in place.
The interdisciplinary aspect of TREBRIDGE takes a holistic view on watershed and forest functioning by assembling inter- and transdisciplinary scholars, geologists, geomorphologists, hydrologists, ecologists, economists, and policy analysts. To combine the socio-economic, ecological and geohydrological dimensions, we followed a structured method to develop a conceptual framework. The framework represents a comprehensive social-ecological system view and bridges three types of knowledge (systems, target, and transformation) as well as diverse disciplinary perspectives. Our poster contributes to this session in three ways: 1) We describe what steps can be taken to develop a conceptual framework when dealing with complex social-ecological systems that are influenced by drivers and processes of global change. The framework supports integration of diverse types of knowledge and perspectives from different disciplines. 2) We briefly present how such a framework could look like using the TREBRIDGE project as an example. 3) We outline how such a conceptual framework can be applied in interdisciplinary research settings to facilitate knowledge integration across disciplines.

How to cite: Salomon, H., Dölker, J., König, L., Krähenbühl, J., Schick, V., Schmidt, C., Bugmann, H., Hoffmann, S., Lieberherr, E., Logar, I., McArdell, B., Molnar, P., Schlunegger, F., Zabel, A., and Zhang, J.: Interdisciplinary Integration in Alpine Social-Ecological Systems Research, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15208, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15208, 2025.

OSPP judging

X3.42

EGU25-10608

ECS

Framework for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Policies in Mountain Environments

Chiara Guarnieri, Sofia Koliopoulos, Paolo Pogliotti, Daria Ferraris, Gianluca Filippa, Federico Tagliaferro, Luca Mondardini, Fabrizio Sapone, and Marta Galvagno

Climate change has profound impacts on mountain ecosystems, making it imperative for local authorities to implement effective mitigation and adaptation strategies in order to improve the resilience of these important environments. In the Aosta Valley (Western Italian Alps) region, composed by mountainous terrain for 100% of its territory, regional and local stakeholders are actively committed to address climate change challenges. However, the complexity of the mountainous landscape, combined with the socio-economic needs of local communities, creates unique difficulties in defining and implementing policies that effectively address both environmental and societal resilience.

In this work we present the coordinated framework developed by the Aosta Valley Region to integrate mitigation, adaptation, and sustainability measures. Key policy initiatives include a status quo of climate change in Aosta Valley (Rapport Climat), a road map for mitigation at 2040 (Fossil Fuel Free), adaptation (Regional Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation (SRACC)) and sustainability policies (Regional Strategy for Sustainable Development (SRSVS)), and lately the Regional Plan for Climate Change Adaptation (PRACC). This framework provides pathways to find innovative solutions including the active participation of scientists, stakeholders and citizens. Notably, the SRACC and PRACC policies are based on an interdisciplinary approach, focusing on specific actions that needed to be implemented in a short- or long-term vision for several socio-economic sectors. These documents also address cross-cutting challenges to define the priority efforts.

In this context, the European Project Agile Arvier, especially through the Green Lab, aims to strengthen science-based polices communication to raise awareness and actively involve the population to foster the capacity to implement effective solutions in the mountains. The communication strategy will be oriented in positive terms, transmitting adaptation tools, focusing on the potential of the territory, thus enabling mountain communities to adapt and mitigate the impacts of climate change while achieving long-term sustainability.

These coordinated efforts underscore the importance of integrating scientific knowledge, policy frameworks, and societal engagement to address the complex challenges of climate change in mountain environments.

How to cite: Guarnieri, C., Koliopoulos, S., Pogliotti, P., Ferraris, D., Filippa, G., Tagliaferro, F., Mondardini, L., Sapone, F., and Galvagno, M.: Framework for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Policies in Mountain Environments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10608, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10608, 2025.

X3.43

EGU25-19947

ECS

OSPP

The risks of mountain activities: tourism accidents in the Ceahlau Massif (Eastern Carpathians, Romania)

Maria Cristina Cimpoeșu, Lucian Roșu, and Adrian Grozavu

Tourism-related accidents in mountainous regions represent a significant concern for public safety organizations worldwide. This study examines accident patterns and risk factors in the Ceahlau Massif, Eastern Carpathians, Romania – which attracts many tourists yearly due to its accessibility and popularity – employing a mixed-methods approach to analyze the typology, frequency, and spatio-temporal distribution of tourist accidents across various hiking trails.The methodology integrated qualitative and quantitative techniques, including systematic literature review, institutional data collection, and semi-structured interviews with both safety experts and tourists. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were utilized for cartographic analysis, while mathematical statistics and spatial measurement tools, specifically the Lorentz curve and Gini coefficient, were employed to evaluate distribution patterns and causal mechanisms of accidents.Results revealed distinct temporal and spatial patterns in accident occurrence. Temporal analysis demonstrated a significant seasonal variation, with accident frequencies peaking during summer months, particularly August. The spatial distribution of accidents showed marked heterogeneity across different trails, with one of the route exhibiting the highest accident frequency. Injury typology analysis indicated that fractures and sprains were the predominant forms of trauma, suggesting a correlation between trail difficulty and accident severity. Statistical analysis of accident distribution revealed significant spatial clustering, with a Gini coefficient indicating substantial inequality in accident distribution across different trail segments. This spatial concentration of accidents correlated strongly with specific topographical features and areas of high tourist density. Notably, the study identified a significant relationship between accident occurrence and tourist preparedness, with poorly equipped visitors showing higher vulnerability to injury.These findings have important implications for mountain safety management. The clear temporal patterns suggest the need for enhanced safety measures during peak tourist seasons. The spatial concentration of accidents along specific routes indicates the necessity for targeted infrastructure improvements and may inform the strategic positioning of emergency response resources. Future research directions could include detailed analysis of weather-related factors and the development of predictive models for accident occurrence based on visitor numbers and environmental conditions. Additionally, comparative studies with other mountain regions could help establish broader patterns in tourist safety management.

How to cite: Cimpoeșu, M. C., Roșu, L., and Grozavu, A.: The risks of mountain activities: tourism accidents in the Ceahlau Massif (Eastern Carpathians, Romania), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19947, 2025.

OSPP judging

X3.44

EGU25-20113

More than the sum of its parts: Acting to better observe, understand, forecast and react to climate change in a combined Network of European High-Altitude Research Stations: The Virtual Alpine Observatory (VAO)

Sabine Kraushaar, Verena Stammberger, and Michael Krautblatter and the VAO board members

The Alpine region experiences climate change at an accelerated pace compared to the rest of Europe, leading to profound and measurable impacts across all geospheres. To monitor, understand, and forecast these developments, European alpine observatories and research facilities have formed the interdisciplinary and cross-border Virtual Alpine Observatory Network (VAO). This collaborative network aims to unify and amplify individual research efforts, focusing on the comprehensive analysis and prediction of climate change effects throughout the Alpine Arc.

By exploring individual monitoring datasets for transnational patterns, the VAO creates a collective knowledge base that transcends the limitations of isolated understanding. This approach fosters innovative insights into the interconnected dynamics of the Alpine environment and enhances the ability to address climate challenges at a regional and global scale.

This study highlights the VAO network's expansion, its extensive data availability across Europe, and its potential for facilitating groundbreaking spatial analyses of geodata from various observatory stations. The findings illustrate the power of collaborative research in advancing climate science and informing strategies for environmental resilience.

The VAO network is substantially funded by the Bavarian State Ministry of the Environment and Consumer Protection.

How to cite: Kraushaar, S., Stammberger, V., and Krautblatter, M. and the VAO board members: More than the sum of its parts: Acting to better observe, understand, forecast and react to climate change in a combined Network of European High-Altitude Research Stations: The Virtual Alpine Observatory (VAO) , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20113, 2025.

X3.45

EGU25-14171

Land System Analysis of Llaca Lake: A Tropical Moraine-Dammed Supraglacial Lake in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

John Maclachlan, Rodrigo Narro Perez, Luzmila Dávila Roller, Carolyn Eyles, and Akalya Kandiah

The tropical Andes are experiencing rapid deglaciation due to climate warming, resulting in the formation and evolution of moraine-dammed glacial lakes. These lakes, while significant for hydrological and ecological processes, also pose a growing hazard due to the potential for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This study focuses on Llaca Lake, a moraine-dammed supraglacial lake situated in the Cordillera Blanca of Perú, which serves as a representative case study for understanding the dynamics and hazards associated with these tropical alpine environments.

Using an integrated landsystem approach, we analyzed geomorphological, hydrological, and sedimentological processes shaping Llaca Lake and its surrounding landscape. High-resolution satellite imagery, drone-based surveys, and in situ field measurements were combined with GIS analysis to map key geomorphological features, including the moraine complex, ice-contact zones, and sediment pathways. Additionally, bathymetric surveys were conducted to delineate the lakebed morphology and evaluate its storage capacity and potential flood risk.

Results indicate that Llaca Lake has undergone significant expansion over recent decades, with notable retreat of the adjacent Llaca Glacier. This retreat has exposed a dynamic moraine system characterized by steep, unstable slopes and active mass-wasting processes. Sedimentological analysis reveals that the moraine complex is composed of poorly sorted, unconsolidated material, increasing its susceptibility to breach or failure. Hydrological modeling highlights the lake's dependence on glacial meltwater inputs, which are projected to decline with ongoing glacier retreat, altering downstream water availability and ecosystem services.

Hazard assessment of Llaca Lake underscores the potential for GLOF events triggered by slope instability, ice calving, or seismic activity, all of which are exacerbated by the fragile geomorphic and climatic setting. Vulnerability mapping identified downstream communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems at risk, emphasizing the need for proactive monitoring and risk mitigation strategies.

This study highlights the value of a landsystem framework for understanding the interplay of geomorphic, hydrological, and climatic processes in shaping tropical moraine-dammed lakes. Llaca Lake serves as a critical case study for addressing broader implications of glacial retreat in the tropical Andes, including water security, ecosystem resilience, and disaster risk reduction. The findings contribute to regional efforts in sustainable water management and hazard mitigation, offering transferable insights for other rapidly deglaciating mountain systems worldwide.

By integrating multi-disciplinary methods and a holistic perspective, this research advances our understanding of the complex dynamics of moraine-dammed glacial lakes and their role in tropical alpine environments in a warming world.

How to cite: Maclachlan, J., Narro Perez, R., Dávila Roller, L., Eyles, C., and Kandiah, A.: Land System Analysis of Llaca Lake: A Tropical Moraine-Dammed Supraglacial Lake in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14171, 2025.

X3.46

EGU25-12521

Assessing the role of climate and mountain fluvial erosion in sediment supply for Pleistocene dune formation in the Pacific subtropical semiarid coast of Chile

Juan-Luis García, Andrea Quilamán, Paula Castillo, Maira Oneda Dal Pai, Laura Gana, Marco Pfeiffer, and Christopher Luethgens

To present the Quaternary eolian stratigraphic record along the Pacific coast of subtropical semiarid Chile (35-28ºS) has been mostly studied regarding their paleoclimate significance, nonetheless other main environmental factors are known to affect dune evolution at the millennial to multimillennial time scale, including sediment (i.e., mineral sand) supply linked to glacial and fluvial erosion and transport, eustatic sea level, coastal drift, ocean storminess, wind intensity, others. In Chile, Pleistocene to Holocene dated dunes occur on tectonically elevated marine terraces and to the north of heavily loaded sediment river outlets to the Pacific Ocean. Rhythmic development of clay-rich Bt paleosols punctuate the dune stratigraphy and denote multimillennial conspicuous humidity changes linked to the latitudinal migration of the southern westerly wind belt. Here, we present new post-IR infrared stimulated luminescence 225 ºC (pIRIR225) and provenance Zr ages from fluvial, dune and paleodune sediments in the Pupío coastal mountain fluvial catchment, and discuss a basin conceptual model in order to asses the role of Pleistocene climate change, fluvial erosion & transport of sediments, sea level, and coastal drift in the paleodune formation of coastal semiarid Chile.

How to cite: García, J.-L., Quilamán, A., Castillo, P., Oneda Dal Pai, M., Gana, L., Pfeiffer, M., and Luethgens, C.: Assessing the role of climate and mountain fluvial erosion in sediment supply for Pleistocene dune formation in the Pacific subtropical semiarid coast of Chile , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12521, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12521, 2025.

X3.47

EGU25-14013

ECS

Debris flows sediment volume in hyper-arid mountain catchments

Alex Garcés, Germán Aguilar, Santiago Montserrat, Bruno Villela, Diego Pinto, Tamara Contreras, Diego Iturra, Marcia Paredes, and Albert Cabré

Intense rainfall in hyper-arid mountain catchments usually triggers debris flows that can transport large volumes of sediment. Determining the debris flow volume is critical for developing strategies to manage and control debris flow hazards in mountain environments. This work estimates the sediment volumes available in the catchments and compares them with the transport capacity of these catchments. Both volumes are contrasted with field observations of past events in the Atacama Desert. The thickness of sediment stored in channels and hillslopes is estimated based on field observations, linking them to the channel width and the slope of the hillslopes, respectively. The transportable volume is calculated considering a design rainfall with a return time of 100 years, the contributing area of the catchments, a runoff coefficient, and the equilibrium concentration that is a function of the slope of the catchments. The results indicate that 40% of the sediment available in channels and 6% available on slopes represents the transportable volume for the design rainfall.

How to cite: Garcés, A., Aguilar, G., Montserrat, S., Villela, B., Pinto, D., Contreras, T., Iturra, D., Paredes, M., and Cabré, A.: Debris flows sediment volume in hyper-arid mountain catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14013, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14013, 2025.

X3.48

EGU25-10949

Late Cenozoic Geomorphic process in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau: Evidence from U-Pb age spectra of detrital zircons in the Wuwei Basin, NW China

Wei Shi, Shuwen Dong, and Zixian Zhao

The Cenozoic intensive uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and its northeastward expansion have had an important impact on the tectonic evolution, landform changes, and atmospheric circulation in the Asian interior. However the plateau uplift process is controversial, especially when did the initial time of the deformation on the northeastern plateau. The Cenozoic deposits in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau provide an ideal record for understanding the uplift and the geomorphic evolution in NW China. In this study, we measured U-Pb age spectra of detrital zircons collected from sand layers within the borehole WW-01 from the Wuwei Basin in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, which ages of sand layer in the borehole WW-01 ranges from 10.34-0.09 Ma. Based on the long-term source variations of provenance of sands in the Wuwei Basin, combined with the existing structural and sedimentological data, our work reveals the Cenozoic uplift and geomorphic process of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Our results indicate that: (1) The dominant provenance of sediments in the Wuwei Basin was derived from Qilianshan Orogenic Belt (QOB) at 10.34-9.51 Ma, 8.18 Ma, 2.02-0.09 Ma, and the Alxa Block (AB) at 8.69 Ma and 8.14-4.51 Ma. (2) The two dominant provenance area transitions at 9.51-8.69 Ma and 8.18-8.14 Ma were controlled by the closely related to the pre-existing landforms of the basin and its periphery. And the two provenance transitions of 8.69-8.18 Ma and 4.51-2.02 Ma were prevailing in the uplift of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. (3) Provenance analysis, integrated with the sedimentary and structural analysis, shows that the initial uplift of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau in the Cenozoic was ca. 8.25 Ma, and the last uplift occurred at ca. 2.58 Ma, corresponding to the geomorphological formation of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Keywords: Northeastern Tibetan Plateau, Wuwei Basin, geomorphic evolution, uplift, Zircon U-Pb age, provenance analysis

How to cite: Shi, W., Dong, S., and Zhao, Z.: Late Cenozoic Geomorphic process in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau: Evidence from U-Pb age spectra of detrital zircons in the Wuwei Basin, NW China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10949, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10949, 2025.

Posters virtual: Fri, 2 May, 14:00–15:45 | vPoster spot 2

Display time: Fri, 2 May, 08:30–18:00

Chairperson: Viktor J. Bruckman

EGU25-15571 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS30

Assessment Framework of Ecosystem Services and Functions of Interconnected Small WaterBodies in Slopeland

(withdrawn)

Chuan-Kai Hsieh, Su-Chin Chen, and Min-Chih Liang
Fri, 02 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) vPoster spot 2 | vP2.15