Intraseasonal variation of winter climate in China and climate prediction

Intraseasonal variation of winter climate in China has been remarkable in recent years, such as: reversed or alternating extreme cold and extreme warm events in different months or in different stages of the winter. There are many challenges in climate prediction in winter because the intraseasonal climate variation is often within the seasonal mean variation. It is therefore urgent to understand the intraseasonal variation of winter climate in China, to identify its predictability and predictive sources, and to propose effective prediction methods and prediction models for it. The author reviews progress in research during the last five years on the main characteristics, physical processes, mechanisms, predictability, and prediction of intraseasonal variation of winter climate in China, considering several related systems including the winter monsoon, Siberian high, and stratospheric polar vortex.