Integrated approach for spatio-temporal drought risk evaluation in Iran

Drought is a major natural hazard in arid and semi-arid regions, where strong dependence on rainfed agriculture amplifies socio-economic vulnerability and population exposure. Effective drought risk reduction requires an integrated assessment of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. However, such comprehensive drought risk analyses remain limited for Iran.
In this study, we present a spatio-temporal drought risk evaluation across Iran for the period 2000–2019 using a multi-component natural hazard framework. Drought hazard is characterized using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), while drought vulnerability is quantified through integrating socio-economic and demographic indicators. The likelihood of drought has risen in 57% of Iran's territory, particularly in the northwest, west, and central areas, with an annual increase of up to 10%. In 21% of Iran's territory, the risk of drought has decreased by as much as 10% annually, mainly in the northern and southern parts of the Alborz Mountains, which include the provinces of Tehran, Gilan, Mazandaran, and Khorasan Razavi. Our findings indicate that the spatial distribution of drought risk varies throughout Iran and is influenced by the interplay of climatic and socioeconomic factors.                

The findings of this study provide valuable insights that can inform the development of effective strategies for managing and mitigating drought risk in Iran.