Geothermal energy in the Canary Islands: a SWOT analysis for sustainable development

This study presents a strategic assessment of geothermal energy development in the Canary Islands through the application of a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis. Rather than focusing exclusively on geothermal resource characterization, the work aims to evaluate the broader set of conditions that influence the feasibility and sustainability of geothermal deployment in the context of these volcanic islands

The SWOT framework integrates geological, technical, regulatory, socio-economic, and environmental factors relevant to the Canary Islands. Identified strengths include the volcanic nature of the archipelago, evidence of relatively high geothermal gradients, and the inherent advantages of geothermal energy as a stable, low-carbon, and dispatchable renewable source. These characteristics are particularly valuable for isolated island energy systems with limited interconnections and high shares of intermittent renewables. Key weaknesses are associated with high exploration risk, limited subsurface data availability, substantial upfront investment costs, and the lack of a consolidated regulatory and institutional framework specifically designed for geothermal development.

Opportunities are identified within the broader context of the ongoing energy transition. Geothermal energy could contribute to diversifying the renewable energy mix, enhancing energy security, and reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels. Additional opportunities stem from the potential for direct-use applications, sector coupling, and integration with desalination and industrial processes. Moreover, the Canary Islands’ status as a European outermost region provides access to specific funding mechanisms and research programs, which could facilitate pilot projects and demonstration initiatives. Successful development could also position the archipelago as a reference case for geothermal exploitation in other volcanic island regions. Conversely, the analysis highlights several threats that may hinder progress, including public concerns related to geological risk, environmental restrictions in protected areas, competition from rapidly expanding solar and wind technologies, and uncertainty in long-term energy planning. Institutional fragmentation and lengthy permitting procedures are also identified as significant external constraints.

By systematically organizing internal and external factors, the SWOT analysis offers a structured overview of the challenges and prospects for geothermal energy development in the Canary Islands. The results underline the importance of strategic planning, risk mitigation instruments, stakeholder engagement, and targeted policy support to translate geothermal potential into viable and sustainable projects. This study demonstrates the value of SWOT analysis as a decision-support tool for guiding geothermal development in the Canary Islands.