1,2,3,- 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Complexity Science, Potsdam, Germany (fenyingc@pik-potsdam.de)
- 2Department of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije University Amsterdam, 1087HV, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- 3School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), 519082, Zhuhai, China
- 4School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing, China Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing, China
Pronounced spatial disparity in heatwave trends is closely linked to changes in atmospheric circulation and land-atmosphere coupling. By using a complex-network method, we quantify the close relationships between heatwaves and atmospheric teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere. We find that changes in atmospheric teleconnections (AT) explain about half of the interannual variability in heatwaves and correctly capture nearly 80% of the signs of zonally asymmetric heatwave trends in the mid-latitudes. Moreover, the probability of extremely hot summers has increased sharply by a factor of 4.5 since 2000 over the regions with enhanced AT, but remained almost unchanged over the areas with attenuated AT. By the end of the century, the intensification of heat-dome-like circulation is projected to promote summertime hotspots over western Asia and western North America. Enhanced soil-moisture–temperature coupling may further exacerbate heatwave intensity, particularly over western Asia. Overall, our study provides scientific support for developing impact-based mitigation strategies and more effectively managing future heatwave risks.
References:
Cai, F. et al. Sketching the spatial disparities in heatwave trends by changing atmospheric teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere. Nat. Commun. 15, 8012 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52254-0
Cai, F. et al. Pronounced spatial disparity of projected heatwave changes linked to heat domes and land-atmosphere coupling. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 7, 225 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00779-y
How to cite: Cai, F., Liu, C., Gerten, D., Yang, S., Zhang, T., Li, K., Lin, S., and Kurths, J.: Heatwave trends linked to atmospheric circulation and land–atmosphere coupling, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12039, 2026.
