Spatial modeling of the vulnerability-resilience-sustainability nexus in complex socio-hydrological system

Water resources management has evolved from traditional monofunctional approaches toward integrated water resources management, aiming to better understand and represent the complex interactions between social and hydrological components. These interactions form a coupled and dynamic socio-hydrological system. Significant advances have been made in developing concepts and theories related to socio-hydrological systems, sustainable water resources management, resilience enhancement, restoration, and vulnerability assessment.

In cold environments, substantial climate variability occurs, and the effects of climate change have shown strong impacts on catchment hydrology and biogeochemistry. At the same time, several policy initiatives and legal frameworks have been implemented in recent years—such as the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the European Green Deal—to improve freshwater protection and achieve good ecological status. Furthermore, changes in agricultural practices, including fertilization, drainage, and cropping systems, are observed at the local scale. Consequently, these system properties exhibit strong spatial and temporal variability. Assessing such variability requires advanced and objective indicators based on reliable, continuous data and information to describe the different properties of the system.

Recent advances in physics-based and AI-based hydrological modeling enable more accurate and spatially distributed representations of hydrological processes and patterns. These models can provide richer data and insights for the quantitative assessment of the vulnerability–resilience–sustainability nexus in socio-hydrological systems. This study presents a case study of two managed catchments in southern Finland, using the process-based SWAT+ model in combination with Python-based composite indicators to spatially assess vulnerability, resilience, and sustainability within the socio-hydrological system, thereby providing tools to support green and digital transitions in water resources management.