Socio-hydrological dynamics under drought-flood extremes in a Peruvian Amazonian community

While amazonian riverine communities have long adapted to seasonally fluctuating water levels, the increasing frequency and severity of the recent hydrological extremes threaten their fragile livelihoods and disrupts the ecosystems on which they depend.

In this study, we investigate socio-hydrological dynamics in the Peruvian Amazonian riverine community of Tamshiyacu by examining how interactions between hydrological extremes, community livelihoods, and public policies shape vulnerability and exposure to drought-flood cycles. Using a system dynamics model, we simulate shifts in livelihoods under varying drought-flood scenarios. Results show that seasonal hydrological anomalies can have both positive and negative effects on this Amazonian riverine community, depending on livelihood type, proximity to major rivers, and local topography. In particular, adaptation strategies that diversify livelihoods strengthen community resilience to hydrological shocks.

These insights underscore the importance of multi-sectoral analyses to better understand how different livelihoods are affected by hydrological anomalies. The results also highlight the need for public policies that promote economic diversification and sustainable resource management to enhance community resilience in the face of increasing climate extremes.