Co-evolution of Compound Climate Extremes Across Global Breadbasket Regions

Global food production is concentrated in a limited number of highly productive breadbasket regions, making global supply increasingly sensitive to climate shocks and demographic change. Using multi-model CMIP6 projections under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, this study assesses future changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought–heat extremes across global wheat breadbaskets and evaluates their simultaneous occurrence across regions. Results indicate substantial intensification of compound climate stress, with a growing likelihood of concurrent high-impact years affecting multiple breadbaskets, particularly under higher-emission scenarios. These climate risks increasingly intersect with demographic transitions, including aging agricultural workforces and rising dependence of food-importing regions on external supplies, which may constrain adaptive capacity and amplify supply vulnerabilities.