Climate-Driven Slope Instability: Landslide Hazard at Danube riverside slopes (Hungary)

Slope movements are among the most widespread and damaging natural hazards in Hungary and worldwide. In recent decades, the occurrence and impact of landslides and related mass movements have markedly increased, a trend commonly linked to ongoing climate change. This study presents a landslide hazard assessment of climate-sensitive slope processes affecting the Danube riverside built structures and houses at the Dunaszekcső high bank, Hungary (Central Europe), focusing on the loess bluff area, where several slope failures and erosional events have been documented in recent decades. The study area is located on the steep Danube-facing slopes of the settlement high bank, composed mainly of Pleistocene loess, loess-derived paleosols, and interbedded sandy and clayey sediments. These lithologies exhibit strong variability in cohesion, permeability, and moisture sensitivity and are covered by shallow soils, resulting in high susceptibility to surface erosion, earth slides, and loess collapses. Steep slopes, locally sparse vegetation, and unfavourable slope exposure further increase landslide hazard. The applied methodology integrates detailed field mapping, geomorphological and engineering geological analysis, and evaluation of long-term and event-based precipitation data. Special attention was given to the identification of active sliding areas and the trigger mechanism. The results indicate that both short, high-intensity convective storms and prolonged rainfall events can initiate landslides. Under current and projected climatic conditions, slope failures and sediment mobilisation are expected, highlighting the urgent need for integrated landslide risk mitigation strategies. These include continuous slope monitoring, rainfall-based early-warning systems, and targeted structural and non-structural protection measures. The paper benefited from the results of GeoNetSee project “An AI/IoT-based system of GEOsensor NETworks for real-time monitoring of unStablE tErrain and artificial structures”, which is financed through the Interreg Danube Region programme, contract DRP0200783.