1,1,1,1,1,- 1Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA (whliu@umich.edu)
- 2Space Radiation Analysis Group, NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX 77058, USA
- 3KBR, Houston, TX 77002, USA
- 4NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
- 5Cooperative Institute for Research In Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
- 6Heliophysics Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
- 7Universities Space Research Association, Washington, DC 20024, USA
- 8Physics and Astronomy Department, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
- 9Department of Physics, The Catholic University of America, Washington, DC 20064, USA
- 10Department of Physics and Astronomy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA
- *A full list of authors appears at the end of the abstract
The CLEAR Space Weather Center of Excellence's solar energetic particle (SEP) prediction model, SOlar wind with FIeld lines and Energetic particles (SOFIE), was run and evaluated on-site during the Space Weather Prediction Testbed (SWPT) exercise at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA/SWPC) in May 2025.
As a physics-based SEP simulation and prediction model, SOFIE simulates the acceleration and transport of energetic particles by the coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shock in the solar corona and inner heliosphere, and has been validated against historical events. However, questions remain regarding whether a physics-based model, traditionally considered computationally expensive, could meet operational needs.
The SWPT exercise offered a valuable opportunity to evaluate SOFIE's performance under simulated real-time conditions. On-site interactive feedback during the SWPT exercise from SWPC forecasters, Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) console operators, Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) personnel, and Moon-to-Mars Space Weather Analysis Office (M2M SWAO) analysts led to significant strategic improvements in the model configuration. The simulation resolution was optimized by combining a coarser background grid with higher-resolution regions along the CME path and toward Earth, reducing computational cost without compromising accuracy.
In this work, we present the operational performance of SOFIE and its capability to predict SEP fluxes significantly faster than real time. During the SWPT exercise, SOFIE could complete a 4-day SEP simulation within 5 hours using 1,000 CPU cores, although the earliest SEP forecast was obtained a few hours after CME onset. This marks a critical milestone in demonstrating SOFIE's operational usefulness and robustness to support future human space exploration.
Janet E. Barzilla, Wesley T. Cook, Hannah Hermann, Anthony J. Iampietro, A. Steve Johnson, Melissa R. Kane, Jonathan D. Lash, Kimberly Moreland, Briana K. Muhlestein, Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla, Edward Semones, James F. Spann, Earl M. Spencer, Luke A. Stegeman, Christopher J. Stubenrauch, Kenneth L. Tegnell
How to cite: Liu, W., Zhao, L., Sokolov, I., Whitman, K., Gombosi, T., Sachdeva, N., Adamson, E., Bain, H., Corti, C., Mays, M. L., Romano, M., Alden, C., Anastopulos, M., Aronne, M., Dahl, S., and Juelfs, E. and the CLEAR Team: Simulated Real-Time Testing of the Prototype Implementation of the SOFIE Model: The 2025 Space Weather Prediction Testbed Exercise, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15204, 2026.
