Building Regional Water Resilience at the Campus-Rural Interface:A Basin-Based, Climate-Adaptive and AI-Supported Planning Framework for Mediterranean Coastal Systems

Mediterranean coastal regions are increasingly exposed to climate-induced water stress, rising temperatures, and intensified pressure on groundwater systems, posing critical challenges to regional resilience. These impacts are particularly evident at campus-rural settlement interfaces, where population dynamics, land use change, and infrastructure systems intersect within shared hydrological basins, yet are commonly managed through fragmented and sector-based approaches. This study addresses the question of how resilience can be built by proposing an integrated, basin-based water management framework that combines quantitative hydroclimatic diagnostics with qualitative spatial planning strategies. Focusing on the İzmir Institute of Technology (IZTECH) Campus and the adjacent Gülbahçe Village within the Gülbahçe sub-basin, the research conceptualizes the area as a single hydro-spatial system for climate adaptive planning. The methodological framework integrates satellite derived water stress indicators, artificial intelligence (AI) supported groundwater recharge assessments, and GIS-based spatial analyses to quantify vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and exposure to climate impacts. These quantitative indicators are explicitly translated into spatial planning decisions by linking groundwater,surface water interactions, land use patterns, infrastructure networks, and seasonal population pressures. Scenario based analyses are employed to evaluate resilience-enhancing interventions, including water efficiency measures, alternative water sources (rainwater harvesting, greywater reuse), and nature-based solutions for rainwater and floodwater management. By embedding AI supported recharge and stress indicators as boundary conditions for spatial interventions, the framework ensures that adaptation strategies align with recharge-favorable zones, groundwater vulnerability patterns, and salinization risks, thereby strengthening both ecological and socio-technical resilience. The resulting output is an Integrated Basin Based Water Management Plan that identifies priority intervention areas and adaptive planning actions to enhance the system’s capacity to withstand and respond to climate induced water stress. Beyond its site-specific application, the proposed framework offers a transferable and replicable model for Mediterranean coastal regions seeking to operationalize regional resilience through the combined use of quantitative data-driven tools and qualitative spatial planning approaches.