Extreme heat is among the fastest-intensifying climate hazards in Europe. Beyond temperature spikes, it reduces labour productivity, strains energy and health systems, and exposes inequalities in access to cooling, shade, and resilient urban design. Heatwaves are therefore not just physical events but socio-economic vulnerability multipliers. Effective responses require more than forecasting—they demand governance that integrates scientific knowledge with lived experience and social capacity.
The EU Future is Climate (EFIC) project addresses this challenge by treating young Europeans as co-producers of climate adaptation knowledge. Its 2026 Metaforum convenes 27 youth delegates, one from each EU Member State, to explore heat as both a lived phenomenon and a policy problem. The project examines whether structured, participatory deliberation can strengthen adaptation by connecting scientific evidence, local experience, and policy-oriented insight.
EFIC uses a four-stage process:
Stage 1: Common Knowledge Ground – Delegates receive training in climate-risk science, EU adaptation policy, and socio-ecological vulnerability, establishing a shared baseline across countries.
Stage 2: Collective Comparison of Heat Impacts – Participants exchange local examples of heat stress—urban heat islands, occupational exposure, infrastructure failures, and ecological impacts—highlighting patterns of vulnerability across Europe. This phase emphasises comparative insight rather than formal mapping.
Stage 3: Deliberation and Adaptation Pathways – Using shared evidence, delegates co-develop strategies including labour protections, public-health preparedness, urban cooling measures, early-warning systems, and nature-based resilience solutions. The focus is on creating an equitable and heat-resilient Europe.
Stage 4: Policy Output – Participants refine proposals into recommendations for EU-level actors, demonstrating how participatory analysis can feed directly into institutional adaptation planning.
Preliminary evaluation shows notable gains in climate-risk literacy, clearer understanding of vulnerability mechanisms, and increased confidence in policy engagement. Delegates demonstrated the ability to translate personal observation into collective assessment and actionable recommendations, highlighting that well-structured participatory processes can generate usable knowledge even without full datasets.
EFIC’s contributions are twofold. First, it provides empirical insight into how young Europeans perceive heat risk and identify adaptation gaps. Second, it presents a method for integrating distributed, experience-based knowledge into climate governance as structured, comparative evidence rather than anecdote.
As Europe faces intensifying heatwaves, resilience depends not only on technical forecasting but on society’s ability to interpret risk, recognise inequity, and co-design responses at scale. EFIC demonstrates a scalable approach for embedding youth agency, transdisciplinary learning, and equity awareness into climate adaptation—offering a pathway to co-produce heat resilience that empowers the generation most affected by future climate hazards.

How to cite: Golem, G.: Heat as Vulnerability, Knowledge as Adaptation: A Youth-Led Framework for Climate Resilience in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-442, 2026.

Climate change has intensified the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, causing traditional flood-control measures to become increasingly insufficient in protecting communities from highly destructive disasters. Flood resilience concept used in disaster prevention strategies to resist, sustain, and recover from disaster impacts. The assessment of flood resilience index cannot be directly compared across regions, as population size influences many flood-related indicators. To address this limitation, scale-adjusted transformation was an approach to remove population-size effects. As a result, the scaled resilience indicators ensure cross-scale comparability and facilitate the identification of highly vulnerable areas previously masked by population.

Flood resilience typically comprises three major components: hazard, exposure, and sensitivity. After normalization, these three indicators are integrated into a composite flood resilience index. This analysis examines the impact of rainfall intensity and population size on resilience in different regions. The result anticipates that medium-scaled city are underestimated in resilience assessments. The findings demonstrate that incorporating scale analysis substantially enhances the comparability, reliability, and applicability of flood-resilience assessment across different spatial and demographic contexts. Through scale analysis, this study provides a practical analytical framework to support governments and urban planners in allocating disaster-mitigation resources more equitably, improving flood-risk management.

How to cite: Zhong, J.-H. and Ho, H.-C.: Assessment of Population Size Impact on Flood Resilience through Scale-adjusted Transformation, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3744, 2026.

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a unique tool for understanding social mechanisms and emergent phenomena. The paper presents an empirically grounded agent-based model that simulates how stakeholders embedded in flood governance networks facilitate community loss-sharing and post-flood recovery. The model is designed and calibrated using extensive empirical data from communities in Guangzhou, China. Modeled agents include multi-level government agencies, NGOs, the private sector, and local clans, among others. The model integrates core processes (rainfall and flood impacts, network-based loss sharing and recovery, and the implementation of resilience measures) with modules about trust evolution and resource constraints. The purpose of this model is to evaluate the effects of different network structures, inter-stakeholder trust, and the diffusion of flood resilience measures on community flood resilience, and to advance the understanding of how resilience emerges as a macro-level attribute from micro-level interactions. Innovations are twofold: First, it moves beyond static analysis to simulate the dynamic, network-based collaborative processes among diverse institutional stakeholders; Second, it implements a process-based framework to measure community robustness and adaptivity, using these metrics to evaluate overall community resilience to floods. Key parameters, derived from literature and empirical research, were empirically validated and tested via sensitivity analysis. The model serves as an accessible tool for researchers and practitioners interested in stakeholder collaborations in community-level climate governance and identifying optimal intervention strategies.

How to cite: Zhu, A., Feng, W., and Yang, L. E.: An Agent-Based Model for Simulating Flood Governance and Community Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3538, 2026.

Refugee settlements represent some of the most climate-vulnerable environments globally, where forced displacement and overcrowding, compounded by inadequate services, intersect with escalating extreme weather risks. The Kutupalong camp in Cox's Bazar hosts nearly one million Rohingya refugees on low-lying, flood-prone terrain. Within this precarious environment, existing cyclone shelters, as is common throughout the Global South, are predominantly single-purpose and underutilized. This limited functionality fails to adapt to the everyday socio-cultural realities of displaced populations, thereby amplifying livelihood disruptions and psychosocial stress during disasters. This study presents a design-based framework for multipurpose cyclone shelters, utilizing Camp 10 of the Kutupalong refugee camp as a case study. The research integrates spatial risk assessments, derived from high-resolution satellite imagery and GIS-based multi-criteria analysis, with structural evaluations of locally available materials such as rammed earth, bamboo, and reinforced concrete. By synthesizing these spatial data with international precedents, this study develops an architectural prototype that functions as a hybrid community hub. The proposed design provides robust disaster protection while sustaining continuous essential services, including education, healthcare, and livelihood training. The prototype also enhances habitability and a culturally inclusive ambience by incorporating architectural innovations, including passive ventilation, shaded courtyards, and gender-sensitive layouts. This research demonstrates how a data-driven architectural design approach can reconcile immediate disaster resilience with long-term development objectives, providing a scalable template for humanitarian agencies in global displacement contexts.

How to cite: Khanom, T.: Integrating disaster preparedness and social empowerment: A design-based framework for multipurpose cyclone shelters in refugee settlements, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4189, 2026.

Wildfires, once largely episodic disturbances in human–environment systems, have become increasingly severe and disruptive due to climate change and anthropogenic pressures such as rising temperatures and prolonged droughts. Rural settlements are particularly vulnerable, especially those within Cultural Landscapes in Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) areas, where flammable vegetation coexists with expanding urban development and zones valued for heritage, tourism, and recreation. In these contexts, the convergence of ecological and socio-cultural exposure heightens wildfire risk, making the enhancement of resilience an essential factor for the long-term preservation and survival of these communities.

This study - interdisciplinary in nature - proposes a GIS-based framework to assess wildfire risk in WUI areas, with a specific focus on Cultural Landscapes and the explicit integration of resilience. The methodology integrates climate hazard datasets -such as wildfire occurrence derived from the MCD64A1.061 MODIS Burned Area Monthly Global product (resolution 500 m) and vegetation water stress indicators obtained from the MOD13Q1.061 Terra Vegetation Indices 16-Day Global product (250 m resolution) - with projected Fire Weather Index (FWI) scenarios from Copernicus (2020). These datasets are integrated with established WUI typologies (Schug et al. 2023) and complemented by on-site documentation of resilience features collected using structured checklists and evaluated using multicriteria analysis. The methodology was applied to two contrasting Cultural Landscapes—the wooden churches in Trondheim, which include a stave church (Norway), and the Romanesque–Mudéjar churches in Seville (Spain)—providing insights across different climatic and cultural contexts.

Model outputs included 30 m resolution raster maps of climatic hazards and WUI vulnerability, along with vector maps of Cultural Heritage assets and their capacity to withstand and recover from wildfires. Analysis of wildfires from 2005–2025 indicates that fire occurrence in both regions is linked to socio-demographic changes, depopulation, and reduced grazing during the 1970s–1990s, which promoted shrub growth and uncontrolled vegetation. Climate risk indicators such as FWI show regional differences: it effectively identifies extremely hazardous summer periods in southern Spain but underestimates risk in cold climates like Norway, limiting public awareness. In Norway, a higher proportion of WUI intermix areas dominated by forests, shrubs, and well-connected wetlands is observed, presenting a higher wildfire vulnerability due to dense fuel, whereas in southern Spain, WUI areas dominated by grasslands are mainly threatened by high temperatures and dry conditions. These differences highlight the context-specific importance of resilience measures that should be considered in risk models: in Norway, nature-based strategies such as firebreaks, clearing, and prescribed burns are priorities, while in Spain, monitoring and mobilization of human resources are crucial, as fuel control alone may be insufficient. Vegetation indices such as NDVI and NDMI can complement FWI in cold regions like Norway, supporting risk awareness and early warning.

The study provides a framework for combining resilience and geospatial hazard data, supporting spatially explicit assessments of wildfire risk. It informs evidence-based strategies, context-specific interventions, and the development of resilience-support frameworks, namely early warning systems, nature-based solutions, and human-centred measures, which facilitates a more effective wildfire management and sustainable preservation of Cultural Landscapes.

How to cite: Moreno Falcon, M., Romão, X., and Bertolin, C.: GIS-Based Mapping of Wildfire Risk and Resilience in Cultural Landscapes, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4428, 2026.

Sri Lanka’s paddy-based agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability due to its dependence on monsoonal rainfall and temperature conditions. As an island nation, climate change poses growing risks to food security and rural livelihoods. This study examines projected changes in paddy yields across Sri Lanka using bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections.

A two-way fixed-effects regression framework was developed using district-level seasonal paddy yield data and corresponding climatic variables for the period 1990–2023. Diagnostic tests confirmed the suitability of the fixed-effects specification, with no significant multicollinearity detected. Future climate anomalies were derived from bias-corrected WorldClim v2.1 CMIP6 datasets using an ensemble of three global climate models (HadGEM3-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and MIROC6) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These anomalies were applied to historical yield–climate relationships to project paddy yields for 2021–2040, with log-normal bias correction applied to yield estimates.

Results indicate predominantly positive yield responses during Maha season across wet and intermediate zones, with projected increases of approximately 10–17% in several districts. In contrast, Yala season yields show more mixed and frequently negative responses in dry-zone districts, with projected declines ranging from 3–10%. Differences between the two scenarios are relatively modest, directional impacts being consistent and variation mainly in magnitude.

Overall, the findings reveal seasonal and regional heterogeneity in climate impacts on paddy yields. This highlights the importance of targeted, region-specific adaptation strategies to strengthen the resilience of smallholder paddy systems, including the adoption of drought-tolerant rice varieties, improved irrigation management, and climate-informed agricultural planning.

Keywords: Sri Lanka, paddy yield, projections, fixed effects, resilience

Acknowledgement:
This research was supported by the Technology Development Project for Creation and Management of Ecosystem-Based Carbon Sinks (RS-2023-00218243) through KEITI, Ministry of Environment.

How to cite: Jayaratne, P., Jeon, S. W., and Sung, H. C.: Climate Change Impacts on Paddy Yields in Sri Lanka under CMIP6 Scenarios: Implications for Enhancing Smallholder Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9206, 2026.

How to cite: Pöchersdorfer, P., Schneider, M., Korjenic, A., Streit, E., Lazansky, L., Sulejmanovski, A., and Tötzer, T.: When students flip the script on heat stress: A citizen science approach to enhancing heat resilience of educational institutions in Austria , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6769, 2026.

Extreme heat waves and high temperatures have tremendous impacts on human health and consequently the health system. Over the past years, the increasing summer heat has brought both, the population and the healthcare organisations to their limits. As care and emergency organizations are already experiencing challenging conditions during holiday season due to limited personnel resources, this situation is intensified due to rising heat that causes increased care needs and emergency operations. From a patient’s perspective, vulnerable groups, such as children, the elderly, and people with chronic and mental illnesses, are particularly affected. Symptoms can range from heat stress and cardiovascular problems to sudden death. While this places a particular burden on individual people, it also poses major challenges for health and care systems.

The research projects HeatProtect¹and PARAHSOHL², aim at supporting health care organisations through identifying the most promising adaptation measures and possible digital tools. Therefore, sector specific challenges of the health system in Austria caused by extreme heat are addressed. Since heat days and tropical nights became more severe in recent decades and are continuously increasing, heat is perceived as emerging climate risk in Austria.

Within the projects, meteorological, climatological and health expertise is combined through the participating organisations. Further, data from all areas are combined and assessed applying qualitative and quantitative methods to support the health sector in dealing with future heat events. Health-related heat indicators are used to quantify impacts under future global warming levels, while a regression model is applied to estimate the associated effects on hospitalizations.

To identify the risks and vulnerabilities associated with heat as hazard for individual target groups, the concept of climate impact chains is used. This approach helps to identify key points where action can reduce the vulnerability of the organisations and therefore the risk of extreme heat and improve resilience in the health system. Through an interdisciplinary research approach, the projects enable bridging gaps between the complexity of climate science and the demanding day-to-day challenges of the health system.

¹https://projekte.ffg.at/projekt/4847510

² https://projekte.ffg.at/projekt/5125189

How to cite: Baier, K., Schneider, M., Hochebner, A., Brugger, K., Steger, S., Wittholm, J., and Bügelmayer-Blaschek, M.: When Healthcare heats up: Building organizational resilience of the health system to heat extremes in Austria, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-11259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-11259, 2026.

Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Weekend floods that occurred in Aotearoa New Zealand demonstrated an urgent need for targeted strategies for building urban flood resilience. In a pilot study conducted between 2024-2025, we employed an anonymous cross-sectional survey and network analysis, to investigate the interrelationships between the perceptions of flood risk and urban neighbourhood flood resilience for selected residential suburbs in the city of Auckland, New Zealand. This study revealed that many associations monotonically connected perceived flood risk and perceived urban neighbourhood flood resilience, specifically, perception of safety from flooding, trust in local authorities, rainfall worry, distance from flooding source, perceived sufficiency in emergency response, and provision of assistance during flooding. Our study offers novel insights by linking urban residents’ perceived flood risk and perceived resilience, considering cognitive, behavioural, sociocultural or contextual, and geographic mediators using quantitative and qualitative analyses. Informed by these findings, we characterised a Flood Resilience Perception cluster, to inform future policymaking and implementation that is closely aligned with urban resident needs and expectations. This study is part of an ongoing project where we are investigating the transition from perception to action within the Auckland regional context prior to expansion on a national scale.

How to cite: Vallis, S., Piri, I., Besen, P., Burgess, A., Morrison, A., Bui, A., Rotimi, F. E., Potangaroa, R., Leuzinger, S., Ip, R., Balaei, B., Mannakkara, S., Kastner, R., Graterol, R., Anshuka, A., and Wong, W.: Perception and Action: Enhancing Urban Flood Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-14529, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-14529, 2026.

Mediterranean coastal regions are increasingly exposed to climate-induced water stress, rising temperatures, and intensified pressure on groundwater systems, posing critical challenges to regional resilience. These impacts are particularly evident at campus-rural settlement interfaces, where population dynamics, land use change, and infrastructure systems intersect within shared hydrological basins, yet are commonly managed through fragmented and sector-based approaches. This study addresses the question of how resilience can be built by proposing an integrated, basin-based water management framework that combines quantitative hydroclimatic diagnostics with qualitative spatial planning strategies. Focusing on the İzmir Institute of Technology (IZTECH) Campus and the adjacent Gülbahçe Village within the Gülbahçe sub-basin, the research conceptualizes the area as a single hydro-spatial system for climate adaptive planning. The methodological framework integrates satellite derived water stress indicators, artificial intelligence (AI) supported groundwater recharge assessments, and GIS-based spatial analyses to quantify vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and exposure to climate impacts. These quantitative indicators are explicitly translated into spatial planning decisions by linking groundwater,surface water interactions, land use patterns, infrastructure networks, and seasonal population pressures. Scenario based analyses are employed to evaluate resilience-enhancing interventions, including water efficiency measures, alternative water sources (rainwater harvesting, greywater reuse), and nature-based solutions for rainwater and floodwater management. By embedding AI supported recharge and stress indicators as boundary conditions for spatial interventions, the framework ensures that adaptation strategies align with recharge-favorable zones, groundwater vulnerability patterns, and salinization risks, thereby strengthening both ecological and socio-technical resilience. The resulting output is an Integrated Basin Based Water Management Plan that identifies priority intervention areas and adaptive planning actions to enhance the system’s capacity to withstand and respond to climate induced water stress. Beyond its site-specific application, the proposed framework offers a transferable and replicable model for Mediterranean coastal regions seeking to operationalize regional resilience through the combined use of quantitative data-driven tools and qualitative spatial planning approaches.

How to cite: Gulergul, O. B.: Building Regional Water Resilience at the Campus-Rural Interface:A Basin-Based, Climate-Adaptive and AI-Supported Planning Framework for Mediterranean Coastal Systems, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16318, 2026.

The intensification of heatwaves and extreme precipitation driven by climate change is escalating complex system risks across urban environments and society. Consequently, mainstreaming systemic climate resilience into overarching policy frameworks has emerged as a critical mandate for both national and local governments. While climate-resilient cities require the implementation of multi-layered adaptation strategies, structural limitations persist in decision-making processes—such as policy formulation and planning—due to the fragmentation of adaptation technology information and the absence of a standardized inventory. Therefore, this study develops an inventory-based decision support system to derive region-specific solutions, aiming to enhance decision-making utility for stakeholders and ensure long-term urban sustainability.

To establish a scientific foundation for decision-making, an integrated technology-policy-effect framework was developed through a structured research process. First, a standardized classification system was established to create an exhaustive inventory of climate adaptation technologies and policies, identifying 58 policies and 61 unit technologies specifically related to heatwaves and flooding. Data objectivity and standardization were ensured through extensive domestic and international literature reviews, case studies, and expert consultations. These elements were subsequently consolidated into single information units through a systematic matching process and implemented as a user-centered interface. This provides a technical foundation for practitioners to empirically evaluate optimal alternatives based on scientific evidence.

The system maximizes administrative efficiency by logically linking technological attributes, effects, and policy necessities within a standardized integrated inventory, enabling data-driven, region-specific adaptation measures. Upon its scheduled completion in December 2028, the system will serve as a foundational resource for the implementation management of national climate adaptation, urban planning, and disaster safety initiatives. Furthermore, it will provide quantitative evidence for diagnosing climate resilience through continuous monitoring. The outcomes of this study are expected to function as a global Reference Model, sharing Korea’s empirical experience and contributing to the collective global response to the climate crisis and the sustainable development of humanity.

[Acknowledgement] This paper is based on the findings of the environmental technology development project for the new climate regime conducted by the Korea Environment Institute (2025-011(R)) and funded by the Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute (2022003570004).

How to cite: Jung, H., Lim, Y., Park, C. S., Lee, S., and Ho, J.: Developing an Inventory-Based Decision Support System for Urban Climate Resilience in South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16506, 2026.

Local policymakers in South Korea face the challenge of translating international climate resilience discourse into tangible technological applications within climate adaptation and urban planning frameworks. However, the absence of a standardized inventory for climate adaptation technologies creates structural limitations for local governments in selecting and implementing measures tailored to site-specific climate risks. To bridge this gap, this study proposes a "Climate Adaptation Technology Inventory" framework to support evidence-based decision-making for urban climate resilience.

To ensure field applicability, a ‘Local Stakeholder-Driven’ approach was employed. A structured analysis was conducted with a working group of 24 practitioners, comprising 12 climate adaptation officers, each representing a different local government, and 12 adaptation experts. The study evaluated: (i) the usability and reliability of inventory components, including technical definitions, working principles, effects, costs/duration, application cases, and references; (ii) the prioritization of 61 core technologies (focused on heatwaves and heavy rain) based on importance and utility; (iii) the identification of emerging technological demands for new climate risks; (iv) the inventory's utility across decision-making stages; and (v) specific requirements for enhancing decision-support functions.

The results reveal that 'application cases' and 'technological effects' are the most critical information elements for policy review. Specifically, from the analysis of the initial 61 core technologies, the study identified a demand for the granular categorization of heatwave-related technologies (e.g., tropical night response and vulnerable group protection) and proposed the necessity of integrating AI-based flood-related technologies (e.g., predictive inundation response). Furthermore, by accounting for diverse regional climate impacts, the study identified demands for 36 new adaptation technologies addressing risks such as drought, strong winds, landslides, and infectious diseases. These findings demonstrate that the inventory can enhance its effectiveness as a vital decision-support tool in the early stages of planning and policy development.

This study concludes that a technology inventory must evolve beyond a static list into a dynamic Decision Support System that integrates administrative workflows with practitioner experiences. Although rooted in the South Korean policy context, this framework provides a replicable methodological model for cities worldwide seeking to accelerate localized climate action through the systematization of adaptation technologies.

How to cite: Lim, Y., Jung, H., Lee, S., and Lee, D.-K.: Designing a Local Stakeholder-Driven Framework for a Climate Adaptation Inventory in South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16348, 2026.

Tourism destinations are increasingly exposed to climate-related hazards, yet robust, comparable, and decision-relevant assessments of destination resilience remain scarce. This contribution presents a hybrid quantitative–qualitative framework developed through the Destination Risk Scan project, which aims to systematically assess climate risk and resilience for tourism destinations at global and local scales. The approach integrates high-resolution climate hazard modelling, tourism-specific exposure analysis, and structured vulnerability and readiness indicators, complemented by participatory validation through destination-level stakeholder engagement in six pilot destinations.

At the core of the quantitative framework is the Global Tourism Climate Exposure Layer (G-TCEL) (Daniell et al., 2026 and Schäfer et al., 2026), a novel global dataset that measures how climate hazards intersect with tourism-relevant exposure. G-TCEL combines downscaled CMIP6 climate projections with tourism asset density and destination typologies (Urban, Coastal, Mountain, and Nature-based) to produce tourism-specific climate hazard exposure scores at sub-national (ADMIN-1) scale. Unlike generic hazard indices, G-TCEL captures where climate extremes matter most for tourism, providing a globally consistent, forward-looking exposure metric under multiple future emissions scenarios. While G-TCEL does not constitute a full vulnerability or resilience assessment, it establishes the essential hazard–exposure foundation upon which destination risk can be evaluated.

To move from exposure toward resilience, the framework integrates host-country climate vulnerability and adaptation readiness indicators, drawing on and extending established concepts of sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and readiness. These indicators capture how national-level physical and transition risks—such as infrastructure stability, water stress, health impacts, energy transitions, and governance capacity—shape the enabling conditions under which destinations can respond to climate change. The combined framework therefore reflects both destination-specific exposure patterns and the broader socio-economic context in which tourism adaptation occurs. The methodology allows for flexible aggregation of destination-level and host-country indicators, enabling sensitivity testing of different formulations that reflect alternative assumptions about how local exposure interacts with national resilience. This flexibility supports exploratory analysis and transparent communication of uncertainty, rather than prescribing a single deterministic risk score.

Crucially, the quantitative assessment is complemented by a qualitative validation component implemented through structured pilot workshops in six tourism destinations, which include the Canary Islands, Cook Island, Queenstown, Koh Samui, Dolomites and Colorado. These pilots engage destination stakeholders—including destination management organisations, local authorities, and tourism operators—to ground-truth model outputs, assess relevance for decision-making, and identify locally specific drivers of sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and readiness that are not captured in global datasets. In selected pilots, sufficient local data captured through qualitative scorecard assessments and qunatiative indicators allow the full implementation of a destination-level resilience assessment, demonstrating how global screening can be refined into actionable local insights. By combining globally consistent quantitative risk screening with participatory, place-based validation, the Destination Risk Scan offers a scalable yet context-sensitive approach to understanding and enhancing tourism destination resilience. The framework supports benchmarking, prioritization, and dialogue, contributing to more robust climate-informed decision-making in the tourism sector.

How to cite: Khazai, B., Daniell, J., Schaefer, A., Maier, A., Girard, T., Brand, J., Buijtendijk, H., Middelhoek, N., Papp, B., Eijgelaar, E., Lynam, B., and Brown, T.: Destination Risk Scan: A Scalable Framework for Quantifying Climate Risk and Resilience in Tourism Destinations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21058, 2026.