Kinematic modeling of crustal deformation in the Caucasus territory

We present the finite element neotectonic dynamic modelling of crustal deformation for the Caucasus region based on the GPS observations, seismicity and main fault configurations. The data obtained from crustal deformation monitoring made using GPS systems in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkiye, Iran and Armenia aggregated and used to determine the dynamics of the main tectonic structures. Over 215 continuous and survey mode GPS site velocities were collected from several published papers, analyzed and after a careful filtration process were involved in modelling. The traces and parameters of main active faults in the region were obtained from different open access data bases in order to constrain more accurate and solid model for the analysis. The World Stress Map database released in 2025 used to take into account the regional seismicity and to calculate the fault slip rates, strain and stress directions associated with main seismic events. Our model shows that the high accumulation of strain is predominantly concentrated along the southeastern part of the Greater Caucasus Trust Belt, eastern part of Kur depression and Absheron peninsula. Relatively low strain accumulation is observed in Lesser Caucasus. Although, there are some indications of significant strain along other main subparallel faults in the region, the large majority of the Arabia-Eurasia convergence is accommodated by the lateral movement of the crust. Since earthquakes are known usually to occur in areas of very low strain rates, it is difficult to quantify hazards in such cases. However, with auxiliary information from paleoseismology and geomorphology will possibly help to constrain better models.