Model analysis of convective precipitation in the Arctic

The strong warming of the Arctic has profound implications for the atmospheric energy budget. Recent studies indicate that the Arctic energy balance is transitioning from a predominantly radiative-advective equilibrium towards a radiative-advective convective regime.

Using monthly CMIP6 model output from an idealized CO₂-forcing scenario, we analyze changes in the occurrence of convective precipitation relative to total precipitation. Our results show a pronounced seasonal and surface-dependent signal. This pattern is also reflected in the associated trend estimates. However, the inter-model spread across the CMIP6 models is substantial, with individual models even exhibiting opposing trend signs. This large spread is consistent with pronounced differences in simulated sea ice extent among the models, suggesting potential linkages to other key variables.