Underestimated flash drought risks in agrciulutral lands without consideration of crop phenology

Agricultral lands are facing with severe challenges from droughts in the context of global warming. Flash drought, in particular, may cause more severe impacts on crop yields given its rapid intensification process which leaves less time for drought preparation and mitigation. Moveover, the associated impacts can also be different depending on the hit timing of flash drought in different stages of crop phenology. Based on the fifth-generation of reanalysis (ERA5) soil moisutre data, global crop yields and crop phenology data, the impacts of flash droughts by considering crop phenology were evaluated. The results show that flash droughts became more frequent in global agricultural lands during 1940-2022. Moreover, the development of flash droughts became more rapid given the shoterned days of drought onset. More than half of flash droughts occurred during the critical growth preiod of crops when the water requirements are high to gurantee crop growth and yields. The results highlight the necessity of taking crop phenology into consideration for accurately estimating flash drought risks in agricultural lands.