An Integrated Modeling Assessment of Food and Land-Use Systems in Taiwan

Taiwan’s agricultural systems face multiple and interconnected challenges under global change, including a high dependence on food imports, stringent land-use constraints imposed by national spatial planning, and increasing pressure to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in line with net-zero targets. This study addresses this gap by applying and validating the Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-Use, and Energy (FABLE) Calculator as an integrated interdisciplinary modeling framework for Taiwan’s agricultural systems. We evaluate the model’s applicability under Taiwan’s specific agricultural, land-use, and policy contexts, and develop a set of baseline and alternative sustainability-oriented scenarios to explore potential development pathways of food and land-use systems under environmental and climate change. The scenario analysis focuses on key system indicators, including crop production and food self-sufficiency, cropland area dynamics, and agriculture- and land-based GHG emissions. Particular emphasis is placed on cropland availability, which is highly constrained due to limited land resources, and on agricultural GHG emissions, which represent a critical sector for national climate mitigation strategies. The results highlight trade-offs and synergies among food security, land-use allocation, and emission reduction across alternative scenarios. This study provides a transparent and scalable modeling framework that supports integrated assessments of agricultural adaptation and mitigation strategies. Additionally, the proposed approach offers policy-relevant insights for transforming sustainable agricultural systems, thereby contributing to integrated land–food–environment management under conditions of global change.