1,2,4,- 1Met Office, Hadley Centre, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (chantelle.burton@metoffice.gov.uk)
- 2European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
- 3Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
- 4Water and Climate Science, UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
- *A full list of authors appears at the end of the abstract
Wildfires are no longer isolated environmental events: they are a defining global risk, shaped by interacting climate, ecological and socioeconomic drivers, and capable of cascading impacts across ecosystems, infrastructure and societies. Reducing wildfire risk therefore requires more than local analyses—it demands a coherent, global perspective on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and future change.
The State of Wildfires project responds to this challenge by delivering an annual, globally consistent assessment of wildfire activity, impacts, drivers, attribution and future risk. Now in its third year, the project brings together an international, multidisciplinary collaboration to synthesise the latest science and data, with the explicit aim of supporting both fundamental understanding and practical risk management for preparedness and adaptation. For example, the report could be used to inform integrated fire management, climate negotiations, Loss & Damage and adaptation finance, land-based mitigation solutions, and asset exposure for insurance, urban planning and public health.
In this invited talk, I will present key insights from the first two State of Wildfires reports 2023-2025, alongside early results from the forthcoming edition. A central feature of the project is its event-based structure, using four major wildfire events each year to connect global drivers with local consequences. Examples include the Canadian and Greek wildfires of 2023-2024, and the Los Angeles and South American fires of 2024-2025. These case studies provide a framework for integrating observations, the latest scientific modelling and novel analysis, in a way that is both scientifically robust and decision-relevant.
More broadly, the State of Wildfires project demonstrates how globally applicable datasets, shared methodologies and scenario-based projections can be used to address natural hazards holistically—bridging scales from the continental to the local. Part of the strength of this project is the large international team and regional expertise, helping to push the frontiers of wildfire science while openly confronting the uncertainties that define wildfire risk in the decades ahead.
Maria L. F. Barbosa, Esther Brambleby, Joe R. McNorton, Zhongwei Liu, Anna S. I. Bradley, Katie Blackford, Eleanor Burke, Andrew Ciavarella, Enza Di Tomaso, Jonathan Eden, Igor José M. Ferreira, Lukas Fiedler, Andrew J. Hartley, Theodore R. Keeping, Seppe Lampe, Anna Lombardi, Guilherme Mataveli, Yuquan Qu, Patrícia S. Silva, Fiona R. Spuler, Carmen B. Steinmann, Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez, Renata Veiga, Dave van Wees, Jakob B. Wessel, Emily Wright, Bibiana Bilbao, Mathieu Bourbonnais, Cong Gao, Carlos M. Di Bella, Kebonye Dintwe, Victoria M. Donovan, Sarah Harris, Elena A. Kukavskaya, Aya Brigitte N'Dri, Cristina Santín, Galia Selaya, Johan Sjöström, John T. Abatzoglou, Niels Andela, Rachel Carmenta, Emilio Chuvieco, Louis Giglio, Douglas S. Hamilton, Stijn Hantson, Sarah Meier, Mark Parrington, Mojtaba Sadegh, Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz, Fernando Sedano, Marco Turco, Guido R. van der Werf, Sander Veraverbeke, Liana O. Anderson, Hamish Clarke, Paulo M. Fernandes, and Crystal A. Kolden
How to cite: Burton, C., Di Giuseppe, F., Jones, M., and Kelley, D. and the State of Wildfires report co-authors: Understanding natural hazards holistically: The State of Wildfires Project, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18245, 2026.
