Evaluating the Potential and Risks of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) and Storage (CCS) Strategies in Global Climate Mitigation: An Integrated Assessment Modeling Approach

To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and achieve sustainable net-zero emissions by 2050, the IPCC and the IEA highlight the critical role of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods. Current projections suggest the need to capture 1 gigaton of CO2 per year by 2030, increasing to 5 gigatons by 2045. Despite the predominance of amine-based capture in industrial applications, Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), used to generate future pathways for global energy, land-use, and economic transformation, often rely heavily on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) as the main net-negative (NET) emissions technology. However, the value assigned to these technologies within IAMs often depends on the model structure and underlying assumptions that require further exploration.

This study aims to model a range of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) methods within the IAM FRIDA as global-scale climate mitigation strategies. The analysis assesses the mitigation potential of CDR technologies under different climate scenarios and examines the role of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) as a negative emissions technology. The impact of climate change on BECCS development is also evaluated. The study concludes that while CDR is essential for achieving net-zero emissions, its effectiveness is sensitive to technological development and economic offsets. This research provides an understanding of how different removal pathways contribute to avoiding dangerous climate change, while also identifying the socioeconomic limitations of these mitigation strategies.

This work is supported by FCT, I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC): LA/P/0068/2020 - https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020 , UID/50019/2025,  https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/PRR/50019/2025, UID/PRR2/50019/2025. This work has also received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2.5 – Climate Energy and Mobility programme under grant agreement No. 101081661 through the 'WorldTrans – TRANSPARENT ASSESSMENTS FOR REAL PEOPLE' project.