Changes in Snow Cover from EURO-CORDEX Simulations and Observations: Implications for Surface Energy Budgets and Climate Feedbacks

Snow cover strongly influences the surface energy budget, affects seasonal temperature patterns, and shapes regional climate feedbacks. Observation-based estimates indicate that snow–albedo feedbacks can substantially amplify local warming. Yet climate models may underestimate these effects, as limited simulated temperature increases, underestimated snow loss, or mistimed snow melt, particularly in spring and early summer, can dampen the representation of key feedbacks linking snow cover, surface energy fluxes, and near-surface temperature. Such mismatches suggest that important cryosphere–atmosphere interactions may be insufficiently captured in current simulations.

In this study, we link observational datasets and reanalyses with EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations to assess how well snow processes are represented across Europe. How well do model-simulated changes in snow amount and seasonality reproduce observed trends in timing and magnitude, and how do differences in snow representation influence surface energy fluxes and near-surface temperatures? By systematically comparing modeled and observed snow-related variables, we aim to identify biases in snow accumulation and melt processes and assess their implications for snow–temperature feedbacks. Addressing these questions is critical for regional climate projections, as underrepresented snow–temperature feedbacks may lead to underestimation of future warming and associated extremes in snow-sensitive regions.