How do drought news, emotions, and restrictions influence patterns of water consumption? The case of Cape Town and the Day Zero crisis

The propagation of anthropogenic drought is shaped by patterns of human consumption, in turn influenced by water restrictions and public awareness. In this study, we develop a sociohydrological model to investigate how social dynamics interact with anthropogenic drought in Cape Town, South Africa, with a focus on the Day Zero water crisis. In particular, we examine how different drivers influence urban water consumption, focusing on: (1) water-use restrictions, (2) emotional narratives expressed in drought-related news media, and (3) the combined effects of water restrictions and media-driven emotional responses. By integrating hydrological dynamics with behavioral responses to policy interventions and media sentiment, the model captures feedbacks between water shortage, public awareness, and water consumption behavior. The interactions between water restrictions and media-driven emotions produce nonlinear and time-varying awareness, which in turn influence the dynamics of urban water consumption. This study underscores the role of news media narratives in influencing public behavior during drought and demonstrates the value of sociohydrological approaches for understanding urban drought risk.