1,2,3,4,1,2- 1Institute of Geo-Hydroinformatics, Hamburg University of Technology, Hamburg, Germany (hannes.nevermann@tuhh.de)
- 2United Nations University Hub on Engineering to Face Climate Change at the Hamburg University of Technology, United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), Hamburg, Germany
- 3Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
- 4Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Nevada, Reno, USA
Endorheic lakes, terminal basins without surface outflows, are among the most sensitive indicators of hydroclimatic change. While recent global analyses have highlighted widespread shrinkage driven by a combination of anthropogenic and climatic factors, many endorheic lakes have remained stable or even expanded over the past two decades. We hypothesize that understanding the mechanisms behind their resilience can help adaptive water management and conservation strategies in closed basins. Building on our global assessment of 635 endorheic lakes (Nevermann et al., 2025), which identified 130 lakes exhibiting significant shrinkage, here we focus on the remaining non-shrinking systems to determine how they persist under increasing hydroclimatic stress. Using multi-decadal satellite records, land-use data, and climate reanalysis, we aim to quantify decadal hydrological stability trends (for 2000 to 2021). A comparison of stable versus shrinking lakes across climate zones, water-stress categories, and basin-level anthropogenic activity will help disentangle resilience mechanisms such as increased glacial melt contributions, climatic water surpluses, effective basin management, and limited irrigation pressures. Preliminary findings indicate that many stable lakes occur in high-elevation basins (e.g., Tibetan Plateau, Andes), where increased cryospheric water input offsets evaporative losses, while others in semi-arid regions exhibit stability linked to strong governance or reduced agricultural intensity. These contrasting hydrological trajectories provide valuable insights into how natural and managed systems maintain equilibrium under global change.
Nevermann, H., Aminzadeh, M., Madani, K., D’Odorico, P., AghaKouchak, A., & Shokri, N. (2025). A global perspective on endorheic lake shrinkage: Impacts of anthropogenic and atmospheric factors. EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8774. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8774
How to cite: Nevermann, H., Aminzadeh, M., Or, D., and Shokri, N.: Why some terminal lakes remain stable while others shrink under hydroclimatic stresses?, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18717, 2026.
