A System Dynamics Model to Assess Water Resilience in the North China Plain

In the context of escalating global population, rapid economic development, and ongoing climate change, water resource management is confronted with a multitude of challenges. The North China Plain (NCP), as the economic powerhouse of China, is facing a multifaceted set of water-related issues, including inefficient water use under persistent scarcity, complex virtual water trade flows, and the increasing pressure on allocating water resource among cities through water diversion projects. Traditional water resource models often overlook the two-way feedbacks between water supply sources and demand sectors, therefore may not adequately represent the real-world water resilience dynamics. To address these challenges, this study constructs a System Dynamic (SD) model in NCP, building on water supply and demand statistics from local governmental reports. Different from previous SD-based water models for this region, we explicitly consider the roles of different water supply sources and municipal emergency water reserves. This provides a unique advantage for assessing urban water system resilience under extreme climate conditions.  In this presentation, we will first show the validation of our model in the historical period (2000-2020) compared to water agency statistics. We will also illustrate how the interactions between each urban water system components may change under different future climate scenarios. By investigating the  dynamic feedbacks between the natural and anthropogenic water cycles, our model is set to provide a scientific reference for governments to plan flexible and adaptive water resource management strategies.

Key word: Water Management; System Dynamic Model; North China Plain.