Modelling the transport of ablated space debris particles in the atmosphere

The influx of anthropogenic metals into the atmosphere is expected to increase substantially due to the rapid growth of the space industry. More than 20 elements from re-entering spacecraft have been identified in sulphuric acid droplets in the Junge layer, with several estimated to surpass the background level from cosmic dust. While the atmospheric impact of these particles is uncertain, they have been widely hypothesised, including ozone destruction, increased polar stratospheric cloud formation, harmful surface deposition, a perturbed radiative balance and in turn, changes to global circulation.

The spacecraft ablation process and subsequent formation of space debris particles (SDPs) are not well defined. The dominant constituent of spacecraft is aluminium. If vaporised, aluminium is expected to undergo a series of reactions to form aluminium hydroxide (Al(OH)3). The initial form and size of the particles will strongly influence the coagulation, global transport, and atmospheric lifetime of the particles. Constraining these factors is vital to accurately assessing the impact SDPs have on the atmosphere.

This work provides an update on the work presented at EGU2025 (Egan et al., Modelling impacts of ablated space debris on atmospheric aerosols, EGU25-4460), using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (WACCM-CARMA) to simulate the production and transport of SDPs. This work investigates the sensitivity of the initial particle radius to the transport, lifetime and surface deposition of particles.