From scenarios to impacts – an emulation of regional climate impacts and their uncertainties using the CMIP7 mitigation scenarios

The PRIME (Mathison et al. 2025) framework provides a fast response tool to look at climate impacts for up-to-date mitigation scenarios. PRIME combines the FaIR simple climate model and pattern scaling of Earth System Models (ESMs) with the JULES land surface model to quantify spatially resolved climate impacts. In addition, PRIME samples uncertainty from both the spatial patterns of CMIP6 ESMs and the probabilistic configuration of the latest version of FaIR. 

We present applications of this framework to explore impacts on both the earth system and potential impacts on societies, using new scenarios produced for CMIP7. From an earth system perspective, we use an updated configuration of JULES incorporating permafrost processes and fire to look at the impact of the northern high latitude net ecosystem balance. In terms of societal impacts, we simulate the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural drought of rain fed crops during the growing season. This analysis includes a quantification of the uncertainty derived from the global mean climate response and the spatial responses of ESMs. Results from PRIME will also be part of the FastMIP project.