1,2,3,4,2,4,4- 1Environmental and Applied Fluid Dynamics Department, von Karman Institute for Fluid Dynamics, Sint-Genesius-Rode, Belgium
- 2Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
- 3Department of Geography, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
- 4Meteorological and Climatological Research, Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels, Belgium
- 5Department of Observations, Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels, Belgium
- 6Department of Electronics and Informatics, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Extreme precipitation poses an increasing risk through flooding, infrastructure damage and loss of life, with further intensification expected under ongoing global warming. Reliable quantification of current and future extreme precipitation requires large ensembles of climate simulations at sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution.
Here, we present EURO-SUPREME (EURO-SUb-daily PRecipitation extrEMEs), a new large-ensemble dataset of sub-daily precipitation extremes derived from the EURO-CORDEX EUR-11 (0.11°) simulations. The dataset is based on regional climate model (RCM) downscalings of CMIP5 global climate models and provides annual maximum precipitation accumulations for durations ranging from 1 to 72 hours. It combines evaluation simulations with a 35-member ensemble of historical and future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, resulting in nearly 5,000 simulation years.
We evaluate the dataset across multiple European regions and disentangle the relative contributions of the driving global models and RCMs to biases in extreme precipitation characteristics. In addition, we demonstrate the use of EURO-SUPREME as a benchmark for convection-permitting climate simulations, illustrated by a case study over Belgium. Finally, we analyse projected changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events as a function of global warming level.
EURO-SUPREME provides a consistent and statistically robust basis for model evaluation, intercomparison and climate-change impact and risk assessments of sub-daily precipitation extremes.
References
- Dierickx, A., Dewettinck, W., Van Schaeybroeck, B., De Cruz, L., Caluwaerts, S., Termonia, P., and Van de Vyver, H.: EURO-SUPREME: sub-daily precipitation extremes in the EURO-CORDEX ensemble, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 6747–6762, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6747-2025, 2025.
- Van de Vyver, H., Van Schaeybroeck, B., and De Cruz, L.: Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° Ensemble (Version 2), World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ [data set], https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/EUCOR_prec_v2, 2025.
How to cite: Dierickx, A., Dewettinck, W., Van Schaeybroeck, B., De Cruz, L., Caluwaerts, S., Termonia, P., and Van de Vyver, H.: EURO-SUPREME: A large-ensemble dataset of sub-daily precipitation extremes from EURO-CORDEX, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1954, 2026.
