Cost-effective mitigation of infrastructure damage from global permafrost thaw

Climate warming and increased human activity accelerates the thawing of permafrost, posing considerable threat to infrastructure security and sustainable development. Mitigating infrastructure damage from global permafrost thaw is a grand challenge because of future dramatically increased risks and the constraints to implementing damage-reduction measures. Here, we synthesize field observations worldwide and identify six key measures that can reduce subgrade internal temperature within 15-m depth by 1.5 ± 0.1 °C and extend the useful life of infrastructure by 9.5 ± 3.4 years. Adoption of these integrated measures allows current additional costs decrease by 33% to 57%. The mitigation measures will save global societal cost of 52.6 ± 16.6 billion USD by 2090 under SSP2-4.5, with Alaska (67 ± 12% reduction), Western Siberia (65 ± 12%) and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (53 ± 17%) having the highest benefits. Given future demographic projections targeting permafrost areas, per capita infrastructure cost by following the integrated measures up to 2090 is projected to increase by 83% compared to 2050. To reduce future economic burden of infrastructure damage, more efficient mitigation measures such as new and low-cost insulation materials, design and construction concepts could be implemented, where necessary, subsidize the adoption of these measures.