Shallow Geothermal Potential Mapping Incorporating Groundwater Effects Based on a 3D Geological Model: Hsinchu, Taiwan

Hsinchu is one of the most densely concentrated high-tech industrial cities in Taiwan and hosts the headquarters of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies, energy demand has increased sharply, highlighting the need for reliable and sustainable energy resources to mitigate the escalating power consumption. Shallow geothermal energy is a renewable resource that remains underutilized in Taiwan. Hsinchu City is located on Quaternary alluvial deposits characterized by a shallow groundwater table and relatively high groundwater flow velocities, which may provide favorable hydrogeological conditions for the utilization of shallow geothermal energy. This study aims to evaluate the shallow geothermal energy potential of Hsinchu City. The research begins with the construction of a three-dimensional geological model using an advanced geostatistical approach, namely the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The developed model provides spatially distributed information on subsurface thermal properties and groundwater dynamics. Subsequently, an analytical heat-transfer model, the Moving Infinite Line Source (MILS) model, is employed to back-calculate the maximum accessible heat extraction rate under two constraints: environmental impact limits and engineering design limits. The evaluation scenarios consider a 20-year operational period for vertical borehole heat exchanger systems under seasonal variations in groundwater depth and flow velocity. This preliminary assessment provides valuable insights into the feasibility and potential of shallow geothermal energy development and offers a scientific basis for future energy-saving strategies in the Hsinchu Science Park and surrounding industrial areas.