Modelling Framework for Composite Vulnerability Index incorporating Game Theory

Vulnerability assessment is one of the key steps in any disaster risk reduction strategy to minimize the impacts of a disaster. The increasing population, urbanization, and climate change necessitate the need for identifying population at greater risk. This study develops a composite flood vulnerability index (FVI) that incorporates game theory for strategic policy making decisions. This framework has been applied to the selected regions in Kerala affected by the 2018 flood. The influences of methodological choices using various sensitive analyses have been incorporated in developing the index. The inductive and deductive approaches such as Principal Component Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Process are respectively used for the selection and weighting of indicators. Based on preliminary literature studies, around 30 indicators are selected to represent exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The theoretical game theory model explores decision impacts by flood policy makers, and incentive structures are assessed based on logical scenarios and literature assumptions. The proposed framework addresses the methodological gaps in traditional flood vulnerability approaches and thus providing actionable insights to the decision makers for policy recommendations and flood preparedness.