Climate-Driven Land Suitability of Pistachio (pistachia vera L.) under Current and Future Climate Scenario in Mediterranean Region

Pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) is a high valued perennial crop, and its growth is highly controlled by agro climate especially by the temperature regimes, seasonal variation and water supply. The current climate change is likely to change these conditions in the Mediterranean region, and the long-term sustainability of agricultural systems, crop adaptation, and land-use planning are affected directly. Although the relevance of pistachio as a climate resistant crop is increasing, there is still limited basin scale evaluation of the suitability of this pistachio in Mediterranean. We evaluate the climate-driven land suitability of pistachio in the Mediterranean Basin under the current and future climate scenario by machine learning-driven modelling framework. Data on the occurrence of pistachios in the Mediterranean area were summarized and co-expressed with a collection of agro-climatic and topographic variables based on high-resolution climatic information. The screening of environmental indicators attempted to control multicollinearity and to eliminate a parsimonious, agronomically constructive set to reflect thermal conditions, seasonality of temperature variations, extremes of precipitation and terrain limitations that are pertinent to the cultivation of pistachio. The slope was added as an indicator of land suitability to show the possibility of management and the constraints of the terrain. The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model used to assess the present and future suitability under climate change conditions. Model evaluation metrics suggest a strong predictive performance. Findings demonstrate temperature-related factors and dry-season precipitation as the dominant factors affecting the suitability of pistachio throughout the Mediterranean. The spatial distribution of present suitability indicates the existence of core climatic stable cultivation areas, and the future projections show that there will be significant spatial changes in suitability. Significantly, the findings indicate the development of new potentially appropriate areas where the pistachio can be grown in some parts of the Mediterranean that are marginal or unprofitable today, as well as those areas where suitability could decrease with rising climatic stress.