Climatic proxy based statistical reconstruction of European Ice Sheet for period of 0 to 800 ka

This study presents European Ice Sheet reconstruction for the period of 0 to 800 ka BP. The model is based on linear regression of 65oN summer insolation, CO2 and the LR04 benthic δ¹⁸O stack fitted to relatively well reconstructed extents of European Ice Sheet during the Vistulian. We tested more than 30 million proxy combinations by scaling and time-shifting the predictors, and selected the best-performing variant using a least-squares criterion. The extrapolation for best combination, resulted in area time series over 800 ka period. The model shows strong relationship between European Ice Sheet area and 65^oN summer insolation. Following the insolation signal, the potential for European Ice Sheet to expand and decay is higher than for global trend reflected by global ice volume proxies (i.e. LR04), leading to at least 16 fluctuations where ice sheet area reached area similar MIS2 values, including advances during global interglacial periods (e.g. during MIS7).The European Ice Sheet area during Early (MIS5d, MIS5b) and Middle Vistulian (MIS4) advances is on the same level as during Late Vistulian (MIS2). However, distribution of ice between Kara-Barents, Fennoscandian and British-Irish ice sheets differs and is asynchronous across the Vistulian. We examine this relationship and propose strategy to distribute the total European Ice Sheet area among these regions. Our study enables European Ice Sheet reconstruction trough computationally efficient model. We present a computationally efficient model for reconstructing the European Ice Sheet, enabling analysis of key climatic forcing drivers and better integration with the Earth’s climate system.

 

Funding sources: This research was funded by the National Science Centre (NCN) under grant no. 2024/08/X/ST10/00193 and 2015/17/D/ST10/01975.