Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall Extremes and Intensity–Duration–Frequency Curves in Tripura, Northeast India, Using CMIP6 Climate Models dataset

This study assesses the impacts of climate change on rainfall patterns in the North-Eastern (NE) Indian state of Tripura using historical rainfall observations from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and future climate projections derived from CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs). The analysis quantifies changes in rainfall patterns and updates the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves to incorporate the effects of projected climate variability. The performance of 13 CMIP6 GCMs is evaluated through statistical analysis to assess their ability to reproduce historical precipitation patterns over the period 1984–2014. Based on this evaluation, the most suitable models are selected for projecting future rainfall behavior. The results indicate a potential shift in future rainfall patterns, with Tripura expected to experience more frequent extreme rainfall events in the future, with daily rainfall of 100mm or more. The IDF curves for the future period (2025–2054) are developed using the selected CMIP6 model outputs and compared with IDF curves derived from IMD observed rainfall data. The updated IDF curves offer valuable insights into the evolution of rainfall extremes, enhancing our understanding of climate change's impacts on rainfall-induced natural hazards in Tripura.