Automated trigger procedure for operational attribution

The need and interest in operational detection and attribution services is growing. To increase the operational efficiency of relevant and rapid attribution studies, an efficient method for the first step in the process - triggering and selection of extreme events for potential study, is required.

The “Heat wave magnitude index daily (HWMId)” of Russo et al. 2015 is adapted for the purpose of triggering heat, cold and wet extremes on a daily basis, where events are automatically ranked across a 2-week period according to an index accounting for their intensity, duration and area. The method applied to heat extremes will be presented here and results will be compared to HWMId for well known extreme events and other events of interest. As this is work in progress, we look forward to discussions on the challenges as well as the promising results of this method.