Impacts of the Subpolar Gyre weakening on European climate extremes

Abrupt changes in North Atlantic ocean circulation are among the most critical potential tipping points in the Earth system, with far-reaching implications for European climate extremes. This study investigates the potential weakening and collapse of the Subpolar Gyre using simulations from the UK Earth System Model, testing different definitions and examining outcomes across multiple levels of global warming. It assesses how such a shift could change the frequency and spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation extremes across Europe.

 

The preliminary analysis focuses on characterising the onset of Subpolar Gyre weakening and the feedback mechanisms that shape its evolution, as well as evaluating downstream impacts on regional heatwaves and cold spells. By linking large-scale ocean tipping dynamics to European climate impacts, this work aims to improve understanding of the cascading effects of climate change–driven tipping points on climate extremes. The study also underscores the need for integrated assessments that connect physical tipping elements with adaptation and resilience planning in Europe.