Sweden’s Food System Vulnerability to AMOC Collapse through Climate, Agricultural, and Social Work Perspectives

Recent research indicates that the risk of collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) this century is far higher than previously assumed, with severe consequences expected. Yet country-specific pathways and perspectives of impact remain underexplored. This study examines Sweden’s vulnerability to food insecurity under a plausible AMOC-collapse scenario, with particular attention to adaptive capacity assessed through social work and allied civil society agencies as the last line of defence in food security. Using a vulnerability framework (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity), we conducted semi-structured interviews with 10 climate scientists, 10 agricultural scientists, and 10 Swedish social workers engaged in food support. Experts agreed that an AMOC collapse would substantially disrupt Sweden’s climate (colder, longer winters; greater variability), producing cascading effects on agriculture, imports, and availability that threaten national food supply. While climate and agricultural experts identified catastrophic risks, suggesting famine may be a plausible outcome, social workers reported minimal preparedness, no protocols or training for food-shortage response, and limited ability to respond to sudden increases in need, despite their central role in supporting vulnerable groups. Findings highlight both the scale of the threat and the absence of attention to AMOC-related risks within Swedish agriculture, food security, and welfare systems. The study maps an impact pathway, identifies the gaps in preparedness, as well as demonstrating a replicable approach for linking climate hazards to social-system readiness. The results suggest urgent action is needed to integrate AMOC-type risks into Swedish and international food-security policy, planning, and training in order to mitigate potentially catastrophic human impacts.