Hydroclimatic Controls on Thaw Slump Deformation on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Thermokarst activity is intensifying under a warming climate, and retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) in the Beiluhe region of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau represent one of the most active examples. To produce regional, multi-year RTS inventories, we applied a domain-adaptation AI approach to improve model transferability across optical remote-sensing imagery acquired under diverse illumination conditions. From 2019 to 2022, the number of mapped slumps increased from 803 to 885, and the total affected area expanded from 1,727 ha to 2,329 ha. Despite these rapid changes, how hydroclimatic forcing, especially precipitation and land surface temperature (LST), jointly influences slump-related ground deformation remains unclear. Here, we analyze InSAR-derived surface deformation in relation to precipitation across different LST regimes. RTSs exhibiting larger seasonal deformation amplitudes also show higher subsidence rates. When LST is below ~0 °C, greater annual subsidence is associated with drier years; when LST is above 0 °C, greater subsidence more often occurs in wetter years. These results highlight precipitation and temperature controls on RTS deformation and emphasize the need to consider combined hydroclimatic conditions when interpreting remote-sensing deformation signals in permafrost terrain.