From CME Detection to Forecast: An Event-Chain Approach to Operational Space Weather Forecasting at SIDC

Operational space weather forecasting relies on the timely interpretation of complex, multi-domain information, yet the physical and procedural links between successive processes are often weakly captured and rarely exploited in a systematic way. This is particularly critical for Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), where uncertainties in detection, characterization, and propagation strongly affect forecast quality.

We present an event-chain framework developed at the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC) that links CME observations, derived products, and model outputs across the full Sun–Earth system. The framework consolidates CME detections from SIDC catalogues and automated tools such as CACTUS with heliospheric propagation models including EUHFORIA and drag-based models, and integrates them into a unified forecasting interface used in daily operations.